In short, it isn't just about change; it's about what kind of change. What helps draw this distinction is that Gov. Palin is a living foil to the Sen. Obama we are coming to know. The McCain campaign must be looking forward to contrasting Obama's association with Tony Rezko and passive acquiescence to Chicago politics to Palin's active refusal to compromise her ethics and track record of taking on corruption; Obama's ultra-extreme views on abortion to Palin's moral responsibility in not aborting her Down's Syndrome baby (and ditto for her daughter); and his fantasy blather on the capacities of alternative fuels v. her real life achievements in energy production.
In short, Gov. Palin does an excellent job of embodying the zeitgeist and symbolizing the change we really want - a grounded real person (think Cincinnatus), who understands politics but isn't about making a career of it, a doer not just a talker, who has high principle, a positive vision, and embodies our best selves.
That prototype fit Sen. Obama when less was known about him, but becomes harder to maintain the more we know. And the rift between elites and ordinary Americans – something Obama was clearly sensitive to in his careful omissions during his convention, will now, in the wake of Gov. Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy, only become more visible as contemptuous commentators, who would laud a teenager terminating her pregnancy, cannot fathom a framework that says that if you create a life, you take responsibility for your actions and have the baby, and either create a home for it or give it up for adoption.
So here’s an unconventional prediction: in this race, unlike those before, the Vice President will actually matter, particularly in what they capture relative to that anti-Washington sentiment. Barring major mishap, here’s a second unconventional prediction: this isn’t going to be a close election, but will look far less like 2000 or 2004 than it does like McGovern in ’72. The media elites and students will still like Obama, but the rest of the country will become concerned that, as his selection of Sen. Biden as his VP indicates, that he isn’t about genuine change at all, but the same tired liberalism, whereas McCain/Palin really are closer to the authentic change we need.
One more: This election has been a running testament to the failure of conventional wisdom; if House and Senate Republicans figure out that the change the country really wants is about dispensing with the endemic "business as usual" mentality, they’ll provide their own surprises to conventional wisdom as well.