WASHINGTON -- Democrats now convening know that voters are unusually interested in the election and unprecedentedly polarized, and that two large events have determined the campaign's dynamics. One was Howard Dean's decision to forgo public financing of his campaign. The other was the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal.
Dean's decision triggered -- and destigmatized -- John Kerry's emulative decision. Together they loosed floods of money from the left side of today's angry electorate. This will enable Kerry's campaign, and the supposedly ``uncoordinated'' 527 groups supporting it, to contest some states where his chances, although south of excellent, are well north of negligible.
Colorado, for example. A senior Bush campaign official calls it ``competitive'' only in the sense that Kerry can lose by 8 points or spend millions and lose by 5 points. The official puts Arizona in the same category. However, some such state is apt to provide a surprise on Nov. 2.
After Kerry won the nomination largely unscathed by his Democratic opponents, George W. Bush had three good weeks, raising voters' concerns about Kerry's ``flip-flopping.'' Then came Bush's three dreadful months. After four Americans were murdered and burned in Fallujah, the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal eclipsed economic good news and solidified public forebodings about Iraq.
A third event, Kerry's selection of John Edwards, did not alter the dynamics of the race. A Bush campaign operative, noting that Kerry's choice did not significantly help the ticket in North Carolina, asks: When was the last time a major party nominated a vice presidential candidate who could not be counted on to carry his home state? Actually, that happens frequently: Bob Dole selected New York's Jack Kemp in 1996, Michael Dukakis selected Texan Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and Walter Mondale selected New York's Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, among other instances -- generally on losing tickets.
This year, both candidates are thinking as Lincoln did when he reportedly said, ``I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky.'' Kerry feels that way about Michigan and Pennsylvania. Gore carried both, as Kerry must. No Democrat has won the presidency without carrying at least five Southern states. Kerry might carry none, so he must try to sweep the big states between New Jersey and Missouri.