George Will

     PHOENIX -- In 1948, when Arizona had been a state for just 36 years and its population was only 700,000, it voted for President Truman. However, for several subsequent decades the face of Arizona politics was the leathery, suntanned Southwesternness of Barry Goldwater, the leading conservative politician between the death of Ohio's Republican Sen. Robert Taft in 1953 and the rise of Ronald Reagan, a rise resulting partly from his participation in Goldwater's 1964 presidential campaign. Arizona was the only state to vote Republican in 11 consecutive elections after 1948, until it voted for Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election.

     It is not novel that the outcome of this November's presidential vote is expected to be closely contested in only about 18 states. It is novel that Arizona is one of  the 18.

     In 2000, George W. Bush carried Arizona, which then had a Republican governor, with just 51 percent of the vote. Referring to the red (Bush) and blue (Gore) states on the map of the 2000 election results, Janet Napolitano, 46, a Democrat elected governor in 2002, says Arizona is ``red with tinges of blue starting to seep through.'' Indeed, Democrats have won half of the last eight gubernatorial elections.

     When it is said that the outcomes in this November's presidential voting are considered predictable in about 32 states, what this means is that if many of those vote other than as expected, the election will be a landslide, in one direction or the other. If, however, you assume, as both campaigns do, that the nation remains as it was in November 2000, when five states were decided by less than 1 percent of the vote, and 18 by 6 percent or less, then three states are generally considered particularly pivotal. Florida, because it is emblematic of conditions in the last election. And Missouri and Ohio because they almost always are indicative: since 1900, in 24 of the previous 26 elections they have voted with the winner. And no Republican has been elected president without carrying Ohio.

     But, then, since the state's founding no Republican has been elected without carrying Arizona. There are now 5.3 million Arizonans wielding 10 electoral votes, two more than in 2000. Republicans still have a 6-point registration advantage. But independents are 23 percent of the electorate, and every two years since 1996, the rate of voting by Arizona Hispanics has increased.


George Will

George F. Will is a 1976 Pulitzer Prize winner whose columns are syndicated in more than 400 magazines and newspapers worldwide.
 
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