Emmett Tyrrell

These voters are today more numerous than they have been in recent decades. In 2010 -- a game changer, as they say -- they registered around 35 percent of the vote. Then they voted heavily Republican, and the result was a Republican House of Representatives. This year they register 40 percent in the polls, and it appears they are leaning even more heavily toward the GOP. The independent or moderate voters seem to shy away from the Republicans on social issues, but for them one issue trumps all others. These voters are intensely interested in economics. Government spending, federal deficits and the value of the dollar really concern them, particularly the value of their dollars.

On all these points they are alarmed by the Democrats' performance. What has made them particularly alarmed is Obamacare. Talk of losing their health insurance, paying higher premiums and losing their doctors is driving them to the Republicans, and the Democrats know it. Maybe the Democrats are smug and unperturbed in Manhattan, but elsewhere in the land they are feeling queasy.

Here in Washington, the Democrats fear a rout mainly over domestic policies that the community organizer, Obama, has championed, but increasingly for foreign policy issues, too. The cleverly named David Jolly essentially ran on one issue, Obamacare. That drove the independents and the moderates to the Republican candidate. In the rest of the country the big issues this November will be Obamacare, the insolvency of state and federal budgets and possibly foreign policy. On each issue the independents and moderates will vote as they did in 2010, only in larger numbers. My guess is that 2014 will be a historic election.


Emmett Tyrrell

R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr. is founder and editor in chief of The American Spectator and co-author of Madame Hillary: The Dark Road to the White House.
 
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