Emmett Tyrrell

Yet even if I am wrong, we do not have to wait until 2039 for a balanced budget, according to an alternative scenario released by Ryan subsequent to his budget. Ryan's critics, who claim the budget will not be balanced until 2039, are using the Congressional Budget Office estimates arrived at by static scoring. This means they assume little public response to lower taxes. People will continue to act the same with lower taxes as with higher taxes. But history has shown they act differently. With lower taxes, you get growth.

According to Ryan's alternative scenario, using dynamic scoring, lower taxes and other inducements to growth in the economy will speed up the economy, increasing GDP by as much a one percentage point a year. Thus, the Ryan budget lowers the debt to GDP ratio to 50 percent in 10 years. Where it now stands at 74.2 percent of GDP, it would decline to 50 percent of GDP. The budget could be balanced not in 2039 but in the early-to-mid 2020s. The Republican critics need not worry. Add to that that Ryan's budget gets the federal take of the economy down from 24.1 percent of GDP to 19.8 percent in 2021 and you see real change. America need not end in Greek Tragedy. All Republicans and many Democrats need to get aboard the Ryan budget.


Emmett Tyrrell

R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr. is founder and editor in chief of The American Spectator and co-author of Madame Hillary: The Dark Road to the White House.
 
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