Emmett Tyrrell

WASHINGTON -- Another week passes, and on The New York Times front page there appears yet another ominous report on the perils facing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential prospects. First the Times reported on the ambivalence of Hillary's Wellesley classmates toward her. Now the Times reports that a growing number of New York's black political leaders are looking favorably toward her main rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Barack Obama, who is black. "Obama's Rise Strains Loyalty on Clinton's Turf" is the headline. The "turf" in question is New York's black Democratic electorate. In the 2004 New York state primary, black Democrats comprised 20 percent of their party's turnout. The Clinton camp has reason to worry.

Expecting Hillary to campaign effectively against Obama in the black community is expecting a lot from this middle-aged suburban lawyer, educated in the Ivy League. So the Clinton campaign is rousing America's "first black president," her husband Bill, to address black and Hispanic groups. Actually, when the black novelist Toni Morrison first esteemed the Boy President as our "first black president," I doubt she recognized the irony. Of all America's previous presidents, the one who most closely approximates Clinton, in presidential achievements and in personal frailties, is Warren Gamaliel Harding, a much-loved rascal who, irony of ironies, was rumored to have black blood -- not a compliment in his day, but neither would it be a compliment then to appraise a president a "rock star" or even a "vaudeville star." Times change.

With Obama, all Americans -- white and black -- are getting a candidate of sounder character than Clinton or Harding. Moreover, for a political newcomer Obama is mounting a surprisingly formidable campaign. He has rarely misspoken and he seems well organized. In the first 90 days of 2007 he raised more money for the primaries than Hillary ($24.8 million to $19.1 million) and he raised it from a wider base: More than 108,000 donors for Obama, 50,000 for Hillary.

Hillary's supporters seem to be what we might call the Democratic Party's old money: Hollywood and Wall Street. Obama's supporters might be seen as new money: younger donors, donors from the Internet. Increasingly it appears Hillary has troubles within the Democratic base, for instance with blacks and the next generation of angry left-wingers. Thus desperation is creeping in. She is caught affecting a phony African American accent in addressing blacks. Talk radio and Drudge boom it across the land -- more desperation.

Emmett Tyrrell

R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr. is founder and editor in chief of The American Spectator and co-author of Madame Hillary: The Dark Road to the White House.
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