Editor's Note: Mr. Peace's employer has previously contracted with Ralph Norman's campaign for consulting services.
Kentucky 3rd District
Congresswoman Anne Northup, a five-time incumbent, now knows for certain she will face liberal columnist John Yarmuth in the November election. Yarmuth roundly defeated his three opponents in the May 16th Democratic Primary. Yarmuth garnered 54% of the vote, with Iraq war veteran Andrew Horne coming in a distant second. Horne, part of the Democratic strategy to use veterans to criticize President Bush as congressional candidates, raised half of Yarmuth’s amount. Horne, who might have appealed to the mostly moderate voters of the 3rd District against Northup, proved for the time being that voters aren’t interested in veterans waving their service around as the most important aspect of their campaigns, à la John Kerry.
Yarmuth sounded upbeat after declaring victory early last Tuesday night. He said in an election-night interview with the Louisville Courier-Journal, that "this district thinks the country is going in the wrong direction and I think that my views of the appropriate direction of the country will be much more in line with the district than hers." But Yarmuth isn’t the only side throwing the negative darts.
In a later interview with the Courier-Journal, Ted Jackson, Northup’s campaign chairman, said the primary was "a very underwhelming victory for John [Yarmuth]," adding that less than 20 percent of registered Democrats "cared to come out and vote."
"We welcome this campaign and a comparison on the issues," Jackson said. Jackson went on to tell the paper that Yarmuth might represent the interests of the liberal readers of his newspaper, but the vast majority of voters have rejected his liberal ideas time and time again in favor of Northup.
Yarmuth still has a significant hill to climb, even after his primary victory. His pre-primary May Federal Election Commission disclosure listed his cash-on-hand as just over $300,000. But much of that was spent in the last two weeks before the primary election. He must begin raising serious funds--perhaps an additional one million dollars--to top Northup.
Northup, on the other hand, is a fund-raising machine. In her May pre-primary report (keep in mind that she had no primary opposition), Northup had $1,645,577 cash on hand. Taking her fundraising prowess into account, her name recognition well above Yarmuth’s, and her penchant for winning close races, Northup is on the path to trounce Yarmuth in November.
However, she does have a Democratic-leaning district, and she is one of the top targets for the Dems this year, so one can count on Yarmuth raising national campaign dollars from Democrats. Yarmuth might be able to raise enough to make this a competitive race.
But Northup has pulled victories out of a magician’s hat before. As of yet, there’s no reason to bet against her.