Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, noted that competition for congressional seats is "gone with the wind." Not so in Louisville. Every other year, a well-funded Democrat with national help takes on Northup. This year, there are two main contenders for the Democratic nomination, to be decided by the May 16th primary.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, both of the potential nominees fall into unsuccessful Democratic ‘molds.’
Andrew Horne follows the mold of Paul Hackett of Ohio, who lost a close special election for Rep. Rob Portman’s seat to Rep. Jean Schmidt. Horne is an Iraq war veteran who worked his way through college and law school. Most of his talking points focus on criticizing the war in Iraq. As President Bush and the Republican Party used national security to trounce the Dems in 2002 and 2004, the Democratic Party has actively sought young, energetic veterans to run for Congressional seats by criticizing the war efforts. Several other Democratic candidates nationwide fit this mold, but the jury will return verdict on their success in November. Horne has obtained the endorsement of several unions and retired general Wesley Clark, but his fundraising prowess has been reduced with the emergence of a primary opponent, thus limiting national dollars that would have otherwise flowed in.
John Yarmuth follows the other Democratic ‘formula for success.’ Not only does he have a history of liberal commentaries, as a columnist in a local newspaper he founded, Yarmuth is independently wealthy and has fairly high name recognition among primary voters. More often that not, however, wealthy Democrats with leftist paper trails lose elections.
Yarmuth said he’s running because, “I really believe we can change the country, and I believe there is no better time to change the country than right now.”
He added, “Anne Northup and I have very different views of the way the world should work.” “She thinks it's OK that Exxon runs it, and I believe in the old- fashioned, 'of the people, by the people, for the people.'"
Yarmuth also said Republicans will "do everything they can not to talk about Anne's record...I'm willing to stand by the things I've written if she's willing to stand by the votes she's cast. That will be the emphasis of my campaign."
Northup plans to defend her record at every turn, as she has for the last five elections—and rely on a superbly funded and well-managed campaign.
Jack Conway, a Democrat who narrowly lost to Northup in the 2002 general election, said that Yarmuth's knowledge of the issues makes him the better candidate.
"Running against Anne Northup,” he said, “entails the ability to pull together financial resources and an understanding of the issues to take her on a daily basis.” While Horne's service in Iraq should be honored, "this election is broader than Iraq," Conway said.
The Democrats can only pick up this seat if they can speak coherently and credibly on a whole host of issues, not just criticize the war in Iraq. However, in the past few elections cycles, Democratic vitriol for President Bush has completely overwhelmed any campaign messages that might resonate with voters.
Either Andrew Horne or John Yarmuth will emerge as the donkey running against the Anne Northup dynasty in this derby. Who will cross the finish line in November? Will it be a photo finish?