Mr. McCain will be 72 in 2008 and he has already dealt with some major health issues. Behind closed doors, a number of Republicans worry about those issues. On top of that, if you add the fact that many conservatives are truly angry with Mr. McCain for his pro-immigration "amnesty" policy, then it becomes somewhat easier to see why he may not break the tape at the Republican finish line.
If not him, who? I think when it's all said and done, the last two men standing will be former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani of New York. The "Mormon" and the "pro-choice" Republican. What was unlikely a year ago is becoming somewhat more plausible with each passing day.
Mr. Romney is the mirror opposite of Mr. Warner in as much as he is a very successful multimillionaire governor in an ultra-blue, northern state. Even with that, how does he knock down the "Mormon" issue?
First, I don't think it will be that big a deal. Second, and ironically, Mr. Romney has Mr. McCain and/or Republican operatives to thank for it being harder to hurt him on this issue. Back in 2000, Mr. McCain was savaged by disgusting "push-polling" done just before the South Carolina primary. In 2008, those repugnant tactics will be even more frowned upon.
Third, time has moved on. If someone does try to pull a "South Carolina" on Mr. Romney, we now have the all-seeing Internet and armies of bloggers just waiting to assign fingerprints to those playing dirty. Last, Mr. Romney simply needs to address the issue as John F. Kennedy did in 1960 with regard to his Catholicism.
As for Mr. Giuliani, he is an American icon cast in iron on September 11. Fact or fiction, the myth only grows. More importantly, the former mayor knows what many presumptive candidates have forgotten -- that terrorism will most likely be the No. 1 issue come November of 2008. As the world grows more dangerous, and as the threats against us multiply, Mr. Giuliani's firm hand of 2001 may well trump any "shortcomings" he may have with primary voters.
So, has Mr. Warner dropping out and the Democrats winning a majority in Congress doomed the Democrats to four more years of Republican White House rule?
Much can happen, but it seems, at least for the moment, that the pendulum has swung back to the Republicans. Let the finger pointing, name calling and lack of meaningful leadership begin.