And he adds that these headwinds include state and local government deficits "that are going to have to be closed by their constitutions," and skyrocketing oil prices and high unemployment, which he says is really 16 percent when discouraged workers who have stopped looking for jobs, and thus have dropped out of the labor force count, and workers forced to take temporary employment are added to the numbers.
Rubin has a lot of credibility on these issues, especially on the budget, because during his service in the Clinton administration he put the government on a fiscally sound path with the help of the GOP, which cut spending in the late '90s, resulting in a budget surplus that led to much stronger economic growth and job creation.
This is the policy that is being fought over in Congress and in the states right now. Republican leaders and governors of deficit-ridden states are arguing that getting their fiscal houses in order will eradicate debt and increased confidence in the business community, which will in turn lead to more jobs.
Who is opposing this? Well, Obama, for one, who briefly entered the budget war in Wisconsin in opposition to its deep spending cuts, then fled from the battle when the going got hot. And liberal Pelosi Democrats in the House and Harry Reid Democrats in the Senate, who say budget cuts will lead to job losses.
Republican leaders have countered that view with a Joint Economic Committee report and independent economic studies that show cutting government spending and borrowing less produces a stronger private sector and more jobs.
House Republican leaders held a jobs-creation forum in the Capitol Wednesday, which drew business leaders and owners, and explained that a smaller budget means a stronger economy. "That's what all of this is about right now ... it is all really about trying to create an environment for job creation in the private sector," Majority Leader Eric Cantor told the Washington Post.
Like many of his colleagues, newly elected Republican Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is taking his sweeping budget-cutting plan on the road to public forums around the state. Ohio has been an economic basket case for the past decade or more, when Democrats raised taxes and spent like there was no tomorrow. Well, tomorrow has showed up with a crushing $8 billion in debts.
Obama's $1 trillion spending stimulus plan poured a lot of public-works money into Ohio, a big electoral state he needs to win re-election, saying the money would create jobs. The unemployment rate there now is 9.4 percent.