Madigan's decision to forgo the Senate contest was not only a major disappointment to the White House but a personal blow to White House's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, a former congressman from Chicago who has also become Obama's chief candidate recruiter.
Madigan, a top Democratic vote-getter in the state, was called to the White House last month where she met with Obama, Emanuel and senior adviser Valerie Jarrett in what insiders say was a full-court press to draft her for the race.
This has not been an especially good month for Obama and his White House team to demonstrate their political firepower. So far they have failed to get their way in three key battleground Senate races.
New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney ignored their political pleas against challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand for the party's nomination in next year's contest to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. None other than former President Bill Clinton is headlining a gala fundraiser for Maloney on July 20, despite the White House's heavy efforts to consolidate the party establishment behind Gillibrand.
Then Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak dissed the White House efforts to keep him from running against Sen. Arlen Specter, the recent Democratic convert whom Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell have embraced.
And now Madigan has flatly turned down Obama's request to take his old Senate seat.
Meantime, while the Illinois Senate race has suddenly become a more competitive contest with Madigan out and Kirk in, a number of questions "need to be answered" before its direction becomes clear, Duffy told me.
"Does Kirk get a competitive primary? Does Burris run now that Madigan isn't? Can Democrats avoid a bruising primary?" she said.
"One thing to remember is that Illinois has a very early filing deadline, the first week in November, and an early primary in March. This means that Democrats might be less concerned with the fallout from a primary, and more with making sure that a viable general-election candidate emerges from that contest," she added.
But as things stand now, Kirk's candidacy may in the end benefit from what is turning into a perfect Democratic storm that has badly damaged their state party's credibility. Blagojevich has been impeached and is facing a corruption trial. His former chief of staff has pleaded guilty to having a hand in the scheme to sell Obama's Senate seat that is now held by Burris, who is also under an ethical cloud.
Sounds like Illinois Republicans may be borrowing one of Obama's old campaign lines next year: "It's time for a change."