What's missing from those generic congressional voter polls, showing Democrats leading Republicans by a dozen points or more, is that only three- or four-dozen seats are truly competitive out of the 435 House seats up for election in November.
Democrats have their best chances in the open seats where members are retiring or running for higher office, but of the 18 open ones, half are in Republican-leaning districts where "Democrats have a remote chance of winning," Cook said.
So this year's election is hardly a done deal by any stretch, especially at this early juncture where, as Panetta wisely pointed out, "an awful lot can happen [to change the whole political environment]. Hopefully not another 9/11, but another crisis could impact on the elections -- perhaps some rapid progress in Iraq. You never know what could change the dynamic."
He is especially worried about the political fallout from a growing anti-incumbent mood that could hit both parties in November. "This could be one of those years that could produce a lot of surprises, where we could see some Democratic incumbents not winning easy seats, and that could be true for Republicans as well," he said.
But Panetta's biggest concern is his party's failure to come up with a clear governing agenda to let people know what they stand for and what they would do, if elected.
Democrats, who have been dillydallying over strategy for the better part of a year, had better come up with "an agenda and a message for voters, and sooner rather than later," he told me.
"They ought to present a very clear vision to the country in four or five areas. People want to know they stand for something. The public is hungry to know what solutions this party is going to present. If they wait too long, they won't have enough time to say what they stand for."
Panetta thinks there is too much anger in Washington on both sides of the aisle and seems to be telling his party that anger is not an agenda: It is a prescription for defeat.
"If the public is angry and frustrated and they want to take it out on somebody, a lot of surprises can happen," he said.
"Both parties have focused too long on winning and not on governing. If the Democrats present another version of the Republican Party, if they fail to help govern the country, I think they would be in trouble two years from now."
Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Hillary Clinton, take note.