Dick Morris and  Eileen McGann

-- Suffolk, where Randy Altschuler has a good chance to defeat Democratic incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop.

-- Westchester/Putnam, where Dr. Nan Hayworth trails Democrat incumbent John Hall by only 44 to 42, according to a Sept. 12 poll by Public Policy Polling.

-- Hudson Valley, where Republican challenger Chris Gibson trails incumbent Scott Murphy by only 45 to 40, according to an Aug. 1 poll by the American Action Forum.

-- Plattsburgh, Watertown and the North Country, where Republican Matt Doheny, who almost won as a write-in candidate in a special election last year, looks likely to succeed, assuming the Conservative Party nominee (who lost the GOP primary) doesn't split the vote.

-- Central New York, including the Finger Lakes, Utica and Rome, where incumbent Mike Arcuri trails challenger Richard Hanna by 50 to 37 in a poll by the Democratic Benenson Strategy Group on Aug. 31.

-- Syracuse, where Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei nurses a narrow 44-41 lead over Republican Ann Marie Buerkle, according to an Aug. 1 poll by the American Action Forum.

-- The Southern Tier, including Olean, Hornell, Corning, Elmira and Canandaigua counties, the district of former Democratic Rep. Eric Massa, who resigned amid charges that he was being marginalized by the House leadership for opposing Obamacare. The Democrats are likely to be rewarded for their arrogance by losing the open seat, as Republican Tom Reed leads Democrat Mathew Zeller by 44 to 30.

Add to the NRCC list possible pickups in the races Republican John Gomez is running against Democratic Rep. Steve Israel in Suffolk and that Republican George Phillips is conducting against Democrat Maurice Hinchey in the Newburgh, Poughkeepsie, Binghamton district, and there are now nine possible congressional pickups in New York.

Since many of these incumbent Democrats are well below the 50 percent threshold and their Republican challengers are right on their trails, most of these insurgents look to achieve their goal.

In all, 2010 may usher in the end of one-party rule in New York state and pave the way for the biggest shakeup in the state's recent history.


Dick Morris and Eileen McGann

Dick Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of 2010: Take Back America. To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com
 


TOWNHALL MEDIA GROUP