Why the disaster? Obama's poll numbers alone don't account for it. With a job approval in the low 40s, he is not as radioactive as Bush was. He still has a ways to fall to reach those depths. So why the unbelievable wipeout in the congressional races?
Obama has a lot to do with it. But so does Congress itself. With congressional approval at 23 percent in the realclearpolitics.com average, the Democrats in the House and Senate have contributed mightily to their own demise. The Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters investigations and the impending decision to let each keep his and her seat does a lot to undermine Congress' image. So did the deals surrounding health care reform, as the public watched sausage being made in Washington. The spectacle of Congress voting on bills the members have not read adds to public discontent.
In most off-year cycles, it is the president's party that is judged in the voting. But, this year, Congress has been in the forefront of most of the legislation -- up to actually writing the stimulus and health care bills -- that the body itself is attracting its own negatives. Republican insurgents' success in derailing incumbent senators in Alaska and Utah attest to the bipartisan nature of the disaffection.
But, for whatever reason, the only mistake either party can make as 2010 approaches is to aim too low. It is not the marginal seats that are in play, it is the safe ones!
Dick Morris and Eileen McGann
Dick Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of
2010: Take Back America. To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to
www.dickmorris.com