When Republicans are winning issues like education, health care and Social Security -- normally solidly Democratic issues -- a sweep of unimaginable proportions is in the offing.
Will the rise in economic growth and job creation -- if they continue -- offset the Republican gains? Not very likely. Remember Bill Clinton's 1994 experience. Even though the recession had officially ended in the quarter before he took office and he proudly pointed to 5 million new jobs that had been created during the first two years of his presidency, Clinton got no bounce from the jobs issue or the economy.
Even in the election of 1996, the economy was only marginally a source of strength for the Democratic president. It wasn't until impeachment that the job growth that had been ongoing since he took office began to work heavily in his favor with the public. The hangover from a recession, certainly from one as violent as this, lasts a long time. A very long time.
And all this assumes that things will, indeed, improve. Worries about inflation loom large, and concerns that higher taxes and interest rates will trigger a new downturn also abound. As long as the deficit is as high as it is, there is no solid foundation for a sustained period of economic growth.
Finally, Obama is now responsible for health care in America. When premiums rise, it will be his fault. When coverage is denied, it will be on his watch. When Medicare cuts kick in, it will be Obama who gets the blame.
Carville's last book touted "40 more years of Democrats." Now he dreams of a loss of "only" 25 seats in the House and "six or seven" senators. But these are pipedreams. Republicans will gain more than 50 House seats and at least 10 in the Senate, enough to take control in both Houses. That's reality.