In the Senate, the Republicans are likely to hold all their vacant seats with the possible exception of New Hampshire. Incumbent Democratic Sens. Dodd (Connecticut), Specter (Pennsylvania), Lincoln (Arkansas), Reid (Nevada) and Bennett (Colorado) are the low-hanging fruit. Among the open seats, Delaware seems ripe for the Republicans. Add to these six seats two more if Rudy Giuliani challenges Kristin Gillibrand in New York and if North Dakota Gov. Hoeven takes on Byron Dorgan. Mark Kirk could be the ninth pickup in Illinois. And, in a Republican sweep, you have to respect GOP chances in California and New Jersey.
A deluge swamps all boats.
On Capitol Hill, the Democrats seem to have almost abandoned the message war on health care. They are hunkering down and focused on keeping their troops in line. The appeals to party discipline are so strong that one senses that they are prepared to march, in lockstep, over the cliff together.
When one considers where Obama was only a year ago and where he is today, the fall is simply stunning. That he clings to the staff that helped him take it is amazing. This has to be the least successful White House since, well, Bill Clinton's 1993-94 crowd. In fact, it's many of the same people!