Now, beset already by food shortages and galloping inflation, Venezuela has to make do with less subsidization and drastic cuts. Feeling cold times ahead, Chavez is desperately pressing ahead with a new attempt to abolish term limits in a vote set for the end of February, but, if he falls short – which we think he will – he could be out in a matter of months.
Chavez’ client-states -- Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Bolivia –- have to face life without subsidies. Evo Morales, the head of Bolivia who got elected pledging to allow cocoa cultivation again, already faces a virtual civil war as the energy-rich half of his country wants autonomy and, possibly, independence. Argentina, whose corrupt regime has held onto power by massive borrowing from Chavez, must now seek sustenance from the global markets, only recently burned by its default on its foreign debt. Fat chance.
Putin’s Russia, which so recently threw its weight around by invading Georgia, faces perhaps the biggest hit of all to its economy. Producing 10 million barrels per day, Russia will be hit the hardest by the collapse of prices. (Again, do the math: Assume Russia budgeted at $60 oil prices and the price drops to $40. $20/barrel x 10 million barrels per day x 365 = a $73 billion annual shortfall). With a GDP of only about $1.4 trillion, Russia faces the loss of about 5% of its economy. And Russian oil production has dropped by one million barrels per day for each of the past two years. With prices at rock bottom and nationalization an ever-present threat, who is going to invest in increasing Russian production?
And what of OPEC and the economic base of the Islamist terrorists? Countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait will be OK because they have small populations among whom to divide their oil earnings. Saudi Arabia will make it because of its massive production and relatively small population. But every other OPEC nation has a large population where the ruler, usually a dictator, buys social peace with oil money. The pressure to stay in power will be so intense that these leaders will force production as high as they can to offset the shortfall. The result is that there will be constant deflationary pressure on oil prices, a vicious cycle that will impoverish all the right people.