Fear Factor: McCain's Best Bet

For better or worse, this election is about Obama. It is a referendum on the Democratic candidate and his agenda of change. McCain is a well-known commodity: Voter opinions of him are not likely to change much in the next three months. But their view of Obama is subject to wild fluctuation.

That's why the undecided vote right now is running at twice its 2004 percentage at this time in the race. That's why older women are withholding their approval of Obama. McCain can and must use August to tilt these doubts into negatives.

It's starting to look like McCain can win - if he does the right things.