Dick Morris and  Eileen McGann

In Iowa and New Hampshire — the first two tests for the presidential nominating process — Hillary Clinton is faltering badly.

When you average all the polls in Iowa, her lead has dwindled and is now eradicated:

Hillary vs. Obama in Iowa
  Hillary Obama Hillary Margin
October 30 23 +7
First half Nov. 28 22 +6
Sec half Nov. 26 28 -2
December 28 30 -2


And, Hillary has suffered an even greater slippage in New Hampshire, where the last poll, by Rasmussen, has Obama ahead by three points. Here are the averages of all the polls for these time periods:

Hillary vs. Obama in New Hampshire
  Hillary Obama Hillary Margin
October 41 22 +19
First half Nov. 36 23 +13
Sec half Nov. 34 23 +11
December 31 29 +2

But curiously, Hillary remains in the national lead and her margin has not dwindled appreciably:

Hillary vs. Obama National
  Hillary Obama Hillary Margin
October 47 21 +26
First half Nov. 45 23 +22
Sec half Nov. 45 23 +22
December 45 24 +21


Hillary Clinton is tanking and Obama is surging in New Hampshire, gaining a net of 17 points. In Iowa, Hillary is dropping and Obama is also moving up, gaining a net of nine points. But nationally, there is almost no change since November 1. Throughout the country, Obama has gained only five points in three months.


Dick Morris and Eileen McGann

Dick Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of 2010: Take Back America. To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com