The data that climate scientists are using is incredibly unreliable and imprecise. There is very little actual data that is any good at all, it spans such a relatively short time period and is so very local in nature that it barely comprises a decent snapshot, no less a movie of earth’s climate history. Most of the data used is based upon climate “reconstructions” or proxy data such as tree rings and pollen counts, not actual temperature data itself. Hence the margin of error on this data is significant enough to nearly swamp any “signal” buried in the “noise” of potential errors. We are, after all, looking at temperature variations in the range of 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit,
Add to all this uncertainty the fact that basic features of the earth’s climate, such as what exactly causes clouds, how important are variations in solar energy output, how sensitive are the oceans’ heat “conveyor belts” to external changes, and you begin to understand how daunting a problem understanding climate changes really is.
The importance of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas is grossly overstated in the popular literature. If you read most popular accounts of the greenhouse effect, you would think carbon dioxide is the most significant greenhouse gas.
It isn’t. In fact, water vapor is by far the most significant of the greenhouse gases, and right now we haven’t got much of a clue regarding how changes in one atmospheric component influence changes in the total greenhouse effect.
We are still at a point in climate science where the things we don’t know or understand heavily outweigh the things we do. And yet climate scientists, who can’t yet explain fully big changes in climate like the cycles between ice ages and temperate times, want us to turn human civilization on its head. Based upon what, exactly? A hunch?
In any realm other than politics, such a conceit would be obviously absurd. But in politics, the normal rules don’t apply. It is in the interests of the politicians to stoke our fears and present themselves as the solution providers. In is in the interest of bureaucrats to extend their power. Celebrities want to be relevant, and pretty much the same is true of the media.
It is in all their interests to have citizens cede power and prestige over to them.
That’s why climate change is at the top of everyone’s agenda. It makes its proponents more relevant and more powerful.
The current climate scare has little to do with the state of the science, and everything to do with the political interests of the people promoting it.