The expectations game will be hard on Obama. He performed well, but that’s what people expect. McCain easily exceeded expectations. Obama’s deeper exploration of issues tells us how he would think about education or a global threat, but McCain’s straight talk says more clearly what he would do about them. Some of this is age and experience—McCain frequently told anecdotes to illustrate what he has done. It is also different backgrounds and training—a law professor like Obama is taught to see the difficulties and complexities, whereas a military officer such as McCain is schooled to find the path through them. One couldn’t help but think that Obama must sharpen his answers to one central point for the formal debates.
And what about those evangelical voters? In one way, Obama won points here just by being on the stage of an evangelical Christian church in conservative Orange County. Evangelicals, who constitute 20 to 25 percent of the national electorate, voted nearly 80 percent for George W. Bush in 2004, so sitting at the same table with the influential evangelical leader Rick Warren helps Obama. And he naturally speaks the language about his faith in Jesus Christ, evil, sin and salvation.
But McCain overcame his previous reluctance to speak clearly about his faith, stepping right into questions about his relationship to Christ (“I’m saved and forgiven”) or limiting the hiring policies of faith-based organizations (no, “it would severely cripple them”). Perhaps more important, McCain’s positions on the tough moral issues, such as abortion or same-sex marriage, clearly square better with evangelicals than Obama’s positions. In the end, however, Obama doesn’t have to win this group outright, but merely make an inroad, which seemed plausible Saturday night.
It was a dramatic couple of hours when a pastor and his church got candidates to grapple honestly and civilly with tough questions. By the end, it seemed clear that McCain’s straight talk express will present a formidable challenge to Obama, the great conversationalist.