It should, by now, be apparent that both Hamas and Fatah are pursuing the dream not of a Palestinian state that would take its place next to Israel but of a Palestinian state that would replace Israel. Abbas wants not a two-state solution, but a two-stage execution. His approach is essentially the same approach as that of his predecessor, Yasir Arafat, who spoke – in Arabic, not in English – of a “phased strategy,” implying that Palestinians should take any land Israel will surrender and use it as a springboard for the “complete liberation of Palestine.”
In the first stage, Abbas will issue a declaration of Palestinian statehood coupled with a demand that Israel retreat to what are misleadingly called the 1967 borders. In fact, these are the lines at which five Arab armies were stopped in 1949 as they were trying to drive Palestinian Jews into the sea. They had already rejected the first offer of a two-state solution.
One result of that war: about 600,000 Palestinian Arabs fled Israel, creating a refugee crisis that, quite purposefully, has never been solved. Palestinian Arabs who remained in Israel, however, became Israeli citizens and now constitute 20 percent of Israel’s population, enjoying rights that ethnic and religious minorities are denied throughout what we have come to call the Muslim world.
The 1949 armistice lines remained in place until 1967 when another war was waged by the same armies from the same Arab nations for the same purpose. If at first you don’t succeed…
In the second stage, Abbas will seek approval for his state at the U.N. He will get it from an automatic majority in the General Assembly: more than 20 Arab members and more than 50 self-described Islamic states. Many Third World and European nations will join the chorus as well, perhaps backing Palestinian claims against Israel with weapons of economic warfare such as boycotts, divestment and sanctions.
What will happen after that is anyone’s guess. With Hamas in its government, the newly declared Palestinian state will be, by definition, yet one more terrorist state in the Middle East. Since terrorist states generally attract few tourists and little foreign investment, Palestine will rely on the “international community” to pay its bills. Its leaders could offer to negotiate with Israel but they are refusing to do that now so why would they do that then? Nor is Israel likely to sit down with Hamas -- any more than we’d sit down with al-Qaeda. The most likely outcome: another war, sooner or later.
Is there any way off this dead-end road? Palestinian leaders, both those from Hamas and Fatah, say they now plan to hold elections in 2012. Obama and European leaders have the clout to ensure that Palestinian voters are given a clear choice. Do they want peace with Israel and, if so, are they willing to make concessions and accept sacrifices to achieve it? Or would they prefer to continue the conflict, to fight as long as it takes to defeat and destroy Israel, no matter the cost?
The data – including both polls and a Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ study of Palestinian sentiment as expressed through social media – suggest that most Palestinians are likely to choose war over peace: Better to wage an exterminationist jihad than tolerate an infidel nation – the only one left in the broader Middle East from Morocco to Pakistan -- as a neighbor. But a free and fair campaign, one that includes a real debate about the choices facing Palestinians might focus minds. It might even change minds.
The last time there was a Palestinian election, in 2006, it was neither free nor fair. No candidate could make an argument in favor of peaceful coexistence with Jews and live to tell the tale. The Bush administration deserves some of the blame for that. The Obama administration has a chance to do better. I’m not betting my paycheck that it will, but you never know.
Clifford D. May is president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy institute focusing on terrorism and political Islam.