My first reaction upon hearing that North Korea had agreed to take steps
toward nuclear disarmament was: not again! Hadn't Pyongyang promised Jimmy
Carter, during his ill-advised 1994 "peace" mission, that it would freeze
its nuclear weapons program and dismantle existing nuclear facilities?
Didn't North Korea break that promise? In 2000, hadn't Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright toasted the "dear leader" Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang only
to be disappointed later when his duplicity was again revealed? When will
these people realize that communists lie?
Now comes the Bush administration's announcement of what appears - appears -
to be a breakthrough. This time things might - might - be different,
especially because the initial agreement does not rely solely on Kim's word
or on U.S. pressure.
As outlined to me in a telephone conversation with Deputy National Security
Adviser J.D. Crouch, this agreement is the result of pressure exerted by
five countries - the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea -
something critics said would never happen. Critics said that Kim would never
agree to six-party talks and that the Bush administration was making a big
mistake in not accepting Kim's demand for bilateral negotiations. President
Bush held out and, so far, his strategy seems to be working.
Crouch says the Chinese government deserves credit for pressuring Pyongyang
to reach an agreement on its nuclear weapons. And he tells me that in order
to get the energy, humanitarian and other economic aid that has been
promised, North Korea must comply with a two-phase process that will be
monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). According to
Crouch, North Korea will get an initial tranche of emergency humanitarian
and energy aid up-front, but they will not get the remainder unless they
fully declare and disable their nuclear programs, including uranium
enrichment. Phase one will take place over the next 60 days. North Korea has
agreed to stop the operation of and seal its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, stop
the operation of and seal their plutonium reprocessing facilities and allow
the IAEA to come back into those facilities to verify those actions.
Additionally, North Korea has agreed to do an initial accounting of its
nuclear program. In exchange for honoring those promises, North Korea will
receive about 5 percent of the energy aid promised to them. That amounts to
50,000 tons of a promised aid package that is equivalent to 1 million tons
of heavy fuel oil.