The wild card here, as it is almost everywhere, is Sarah Palin. There's no doubt that McCain's selection of Palin energized Republicans who were unhappy with his candidacy. "There will be a lot of carry-over from that going into the next cycle," says Oran Smith, head of the Palmetto Family Council, which is South Carolina's version of the socially conservative Family Research Council.
But not with everyone -- and not even with all of the state's social conservatives. "There are a lot of folks who really, really like her," Smith says. "But there are others who think she's fine, but ask, 'Who else do we have?'" When I suggest to Smith that he sounds somewhat equivocal, he says, "Personally, not speaking for the organization, I am a little equivocal. I'm not sure if she is the perfect match for a nominee for president."
Among those who see themselves more as economic and national-defense conservatives, the doubts are stronger. At a recent focus group (well, actually it was a lunch) with six University of South Carolina Law School students -- all conservative, all politically active -- there was a consensus against Palin. The students had been enthusiastic when she was first picked for the 2008 ticket. They were wowed when she addressed the Republican National Convention. And then it was downhill from there. They believe Palin shares their conservative instincts, but that she's just not up to the job.
Of course, there's always the possibility that South Carolinians will break their pattern and go with someone new. If Romney, Huckabee and Palin all fail to turn on the voters, that could open the way for Tim Pawlenty (who hasn't been here recently), or Thune, or some complete stranger. Whatever happens, the road to the nomination in this key GOP state is wide-open -- and very likely bumpy.