All three vulnerable Democrats are viewed as appealing candidates. "Giffords has a lot of money saved up, she has an image as a pleasant person, and she's married to an astronaut," says Kenski. "Her PR machine will say she's a middle-of-the-road Democrat, but if you look at key votes, she goes counter to the way most Arizonans would have voted." Similar things could be said about the records of Kirkpatrick and Mitchell.
And then there's the Obama Effect. The polls here show Obama's job approval rating has dipped below 50 percent, just as it has nationally. It's hard to see how the president can offer much help to Democrats running in majority-Republican districts.
There seems little doubt that if Republicans ran attractive, appealing conservative candidates they could probably win all three races, which would upend the Arizona delegation and make it six-to-two in favor of the GOP. The problem is finding those good candidates. "The Republican Party in the state is a mess," says the GOP politico. "It's dysfunctional, rudderless, not accomplishing anything, not even doing the basics of getting out the vote and doing voter registration drives."
Much of that dissolution occurred during years Republicans were in control and the GOP got lazy. Now, completely out of power, and with Democrats overreaching, Republicans may be getting their act together. "Like the alcoholics say, we've hit bottom," adds the politico. "Or that's what I'd like to believe."
As far as the Senate is concerned, Arizona's delegation is unlikely to change hands any time soon. Republican Sen. Jon Kyl was elected to a third term in 2006. McCain is up for re-election next year, and may face a primary challenge from the right, in the person of J.D. Hayworth, the radio host and former congressman. But assuming McCain survives the primary, he'll likely be re-elected.
In any event, 2010 is shaping up as a year in which Republicans have the chance to win back some of the ground they lost in '06 and '08. And it's not just in Arizona. There is real potential for reddening in other Western states, as well, notably Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
The Democrats' hopes of a massive blue wave changing American politics forever may have been just wishful thinking.