And party control doesn't really matter. Remember that although Bill Clinton talked about health care reform in 1992, a Democratic Congress ultimately rejected his proposal, in part because it wasn't fleshed out until after he took office and Congress had no reason to believe that those who voted for Clinton were voting for this particular plan.

 I think Bush needs to decide between tax reform and Social Security reform if he wants to get something enacted before he leaves office. If he does, I think he will be forced to choose tax reform. Although Social Security reform is desirable, there is no compelling reason to act with haste. The situation there will be pretty much the same for years to come. By contrast, the tax system is under severe pressure. Expiring provisions need to either be made permanent or excised from the code, the Alternative Minimum Tax demands a permanent fix, and something desperately needs to be done to help the Internal Revenue Service administer a tax system that is increasingly incomprehensible and too easy evaded.

 I also believe that sooner or later Bush is going to be forced to deal meaningfully with the budget deficit and that higher revenues will necessarily have to be part of a budget agreement. Although he has stated publicly that he sees no need for higher revenues, I believe that financial markets will force Bush to act, as they did for Reagan. Bush has also said that in the event that higher revenues are needed, he would deal with that separately from any tax reform initiative.
Again, I think he will be forced to reconsider when he realizes that tax reform will necessarily involve raising taxes to pay for tax cuts.

 Finally, Bush should not underestimate how rapidly his power will dissipate as he approaches the end of his presidency. Nor should he underestimate the extent to which unexpected events -- such as several Supreme Court vacancies or deterioration of the Iraq situation -- can push everything else off the table. This also argues for a narrowing of his agenda to those things that are most needed and which have the highest chance of success.