Second, both parties should avoid nominating candidates from one-party states. I think a key reason why Kerry floundered in August is that he really has no experience running against real Republicans -- a problem Michael Dukakis faced, as well. I think in his mind, to a large extent, the real fight was always about getting the Democratic nomination, because that was always the only fight that mattered in Massachusetts, a state thoroughly dominated by the Democratic Party.
In Massachusetts, winning the Democratic nomination for any office is tantamount to victory, since the Republican Party is virtually nonexistent. Sure, Republicans have elected a couple of governors in recent years, but it's going to be a very long time before the party is really competitive in the state.
And because the Republican Party is so weak in Massachusetts, their candidates tend not to be very good. Any Republican with serious political ambitions moves elsewhere or contents himself with appointed positions in Washington, like White House chief of staff Andrew Card, a Massachusetts native. Those who actually run for office in that state are often sacrificial lambs that put up only token opposition to the Democrat.
Finally, Republicans in Massachusetts tend to be pretty liberal by comparison to Republicans elsewhere. This means that they often have little disagreement on the issues with their Democratic opponents. Given the choice between a Democrat and a pale imitation, people will usually go with the Democrat.
All this means that Kerry has never run a campaign against a vigorous, aggressive, principled, well-financed, politically astute Republican in his life. He is used to always holding the high cards, with a fawning liberal press at his beck and call. That's one reason why he was caught flat-footed by the Swift Boat Vets. He was depending on his pals in the liberal media to repudiate them or ignore them, which they did. But the media, too, were caught flat-footed when the Internet and talk radio put questions about Kerry's Vietnam record onto the national stage and forced them to do some reporting.
Similar questions were raised about Bush in 2000. He was used to dealing with Texas Democrats, who tend to be more conservative than Massachusetts Republicans. But he was able to overcome this, and perhaps Kerry will, too. However, time is running out and many Democrats are very nervous. Unless. Kerry can get some momentum back before the World Series, he is going to be in very serious political trouble.