A run of bad luck at the political tables -- too high a stack of chips left too long on red -- wears you down without showing anyone the shape of tomorrow. Hurricane Katrina would have been awful luck for any White House attempting to look crisp and in charge against the forces of nature. Bush just happened to be president: worse, at a time when long national procrastination about dealing with energy was playing hob with gasoline prices. Next the avian flu/pandemic talk. What no Bush foe should count on is an unbroken run of bad luck for the archenemy or arch-dope, whichever they take him for. We may depend on it: Circumstances change. Iraq, with the constitutional election behind and parliamentary elections just head, seems a more and more hopeful place. Prophecies of higher winter fuel prices are unlikely to be frustrated wholly, but there are predictions -- re-enter the luck factor -- of a less-than-terrible winter.

 None of which is to tell Bush doubters, "You're out of your mind!" Our present democratic fracas serves the ends of democracy by keeping adrenalin levels elevated -- and reminding politicians never to take our approval for granted.

 We also need reminding that, in spite of everything that worries us, the economy remains strong, active enemies cluster mostly in a squalid corner of desert, and the furnaces of democracy and debate still -- obviously -- run full blast.

 Give Mr. Bush a little credit. His record isn't half as bleak as vox populi seems to believe -- and his luck looks due for a little change.