Austin Bay

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2011: Bin Laden and Arab Spring in Context

By Austin Bay (Dec 28, 2011)

Cultural adaptation is a perniciously slow process. It has been a decade since Bernard Lewis' classic "What Went Wrong?" appeared in the wake of... more

North Korea: The Kim is Dead, Long Live the Kim

By Austin Bay (Dec 21, 2011)

For the second time in two decades, North Korea's hereditary communist state confronts dynastic change -- and the civilized world, wary of the chronically belligerent realm's... more

Holiday Greeting's From Iran: Grim, Cynical and Desperate

By Austin Bay (Dec 14, 2011)

Iran's tyrannical regime has sent the world what passes for a holiday greeting in contemporary Tehran -- a grim and cynical threat. This week, a member of Iran's National... more

Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Imagination, Deception and Audacity

By Austin Bay (Dec 06, 2011)

Imagination, deception and audacity, in combination, are the deadly acme of warfare. Japan’s Pearl Harbor ambush of America’s Pacific Fleet, which occurred 70... more

Tunisia and Its Islamists: The Revolution, Phase Two

By Austin Bay (Nov 30, 2011)

The social and economic success of Arab Spring 2011's revolutions hinges on the personal and public integrity of democratic political Islamists, like the leaders of Tunisia's... more

Failed States, Curtailed States: Terror Versus Crime

By Austin Bay (Nov 16, 2011)

On Aug. 25, members of the Zetas drug cartel gang attacked a casino in Monterrey, Mexico, and murdered 52 people.It was a particularly gruesome act of mass slaughter, even... more

Iran: Armageddon One Day Closer

By Austin Bay (Nov 09, 2011)

In 1981, Israeli fighter-bombers attacked and destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor. That airstrike, widely condemned by the so-called civilized world, kept the truly... more

Greece's Papandreou Gambles on Democracy

By Austin Bay (Nov 02, 2011)

To the chagrin of European Union negotiators, the Greek government of Prime Minister George Papandreou has decided to ask the Greek public to give its yea or nay regarding... more

From Arab Spring to Tunisian Fall -- Islamists Enter the School of Democracy

By Austin Bay (Oct 26, 2011)

The people of Tunisia, Arab Spring 2011's first revolutionaries, have earned their chance to struggle with one of the 21st century's most essential political, social and... more

Tracking Uganda's Lords Resistance Army: The Regional Context

By Austin Bay (Oct 19, 2011)

For almost two decades, Joseph Kony, senior commander of the Ugandan rebel Lords Resistance Army, has practiced a peculiarly evil brand of the sociopathic warfare that curses... more

Arab Spring and the Paradox of American Leadership

By Austin Bay (Oct 12, 2011)

Militant Islamist extremists murdering Egyptian Christians offer one criminal version of change amidst the Arab Spring 2011 revolutions. Islamist extremists, many linked to... more

Ambushing Terror: Surprise, the Predator and the ACLU

By Austin Bay (Oct 05, 2011)

The appalling loss of life and physical destruction of al-Qaida's 9-11 suicide air strikes stunned the United States. The shock of surprise -- the unexpected attack "out of... more

Sudanese Genocide Attention Fatigue?

By Austin Bay (Sep 28, 2011)

Remember Darfur, site of the genocide in Western Sudan? Two years ago, in August 2009, the then-United Nations peacekeeping force commander claimed the war in Darfur had... more

Iran vs. NATO: The Twilight War in Syria

By Austin Bay (Sep 21, 2011)

Syria's Arab Spring civil war began as another round in a long struggle between the 10 percent and the 90 percent -- the 10 percent loyal to the Alawite dictatorship of the... more

Egyptian Islamist Militants Following Khomeini's Script

By Austin Bay (Sep 14, 2011)

The generals running Egypt's military services need to decide what kind of future they want for their country, and they must decide quickly. Initial reports of the mob attack... more

From 9/11 to 2011: Al-Qaida's Battle of Blame

By Austin Bay (Sep 07, 2011)

Osama bin Laden justified 9/11's great evil on the basis of fixing blame for the Islamic world's cultural and political decline. He was angry with the last seven centuries of... more

Gadhafi Atrocities Justify Intervention

By Austin Bay (Aug 31, 2011)

On Aug. 26, Amnesty International charged that guards loyal to Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi murdered scores of prisoners at two military camps inside Tripoli. The human... more

Libya 2011: Now Comes the War for Order

By Austin Bay (Aug 24, 2011)

Gun battles in Tripoli's suburbs signal the death throes of Muammar Gadhafi's dictatorship. Regime change is succeeding, albeit slowly and with needlessly... more

Ataturk: An Intellectual Biography

By Austin Bay (Aug 17, 2011)

Even for a television talk show, it was an extraordinary claim.         During his January 1, 2000, end-of-the-millennium... more

America's Strategic Leadership Deficit

By Austin Bay (Aug 10, 2011)

America's military services devote much time and thought to developing strategic leaders. Producing a leader capable of commanding a combat theater like CENTCOM remains a... more

Turkey's Military Resigns

By Austin Bay (Aug 03, 2011)

In a democracy, when senior military officers can no longer support the policies of the elected civilian government they serve, they are supposed to resign their posts and... more

Libyan War 2011: A Short History

By Austin Bay (Jul 27, 2011)

In April of this year, it was already apparent that the Libyan War of 2011 had become a curious war of military, economic and political attrition. That was cruel news... more

Syria's Twilight of the Diversions

By Austin Bay (Jul 20, 2011)

Two of the oldest tricks in the Middle Eastern dictator's grab-bag of deceit and thuggery have failed Syria's Bashar al-Assad. In early June, Assad's regime played the Israel... more

An American Military Nightlight in Iraq?

By Austin Bay (Jul 13, 2011)

American troops are scheduled to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011 --but don't bet that all of them will leave.   There are several reasons to... more

Reinventing Libya

By Austin Bay (Jul 06, 2011)

Since the middle of June, Berber rebels based in western Libya's Nafusa Mountain region have launched what is arguably the most successful and sustained rebel... more

Corruption Feeds Crises Worldwide

By Austin Bay (Jun 29, 2011)

What links the Arab Spring rebellions with political agitation in China and at least another five dozen simmering or emerging crises? If your answer is "the... more

Attrition as the Price of Vacillation

By Austin Bay (Jun 22, 2011)

Based on current trends, Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi is losing his war against his own people. That's good. Gadhafi's defeat will be another significant... more

Robert Gates' Blunt Reality

By Austin Bay (Jun 15, 2011)

Last Friday, in a tough-minded speech delivered in Brussels, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told NATO that money talks, and unless European members cover their fair... more

On the Road to Fatima Gate

By Austin Bay (Jun 08, 2011)

2011's Arab Spring is an astonishing moment. Yes, somewhere on the calendar of the next decade's history a fall of lowered expectations will occur and a winter of... more

Cyberwarfare -- the Doctrine of Equivalence

By Austin Bay (Jun 01, 2011)

Hack the United States with a crippling computer virus, and the Pentagon may respond with smart bombs and commando teams. The military and intelligence communities have known... more

The War Powers Resolution: Obama as Humpty Dumpty

By Austin Bay (May 25, 2011)

President Barack Obama has violated the 1973 War Powers Resolution. That is a good thing. The War Powers Resolution was constitutionally dubious when it was passed -- by a... more

Libya: Toothless Lawfare Amid Warfare

By Austin Bay (May 18, 2011)

This week, International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutors announced that they intend to indict Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi on an array of charges, including war crimes... more

Time to Smash Bin Laden's Legacy

By Austin Bay (May 11, 2011)

The Arab Spring popular revolts caught al-Qaida by surprise. The revolts are not al-Qaida's operational handiwork, and they certainly do not fit the ideologically driven... more

In Praise of American Persistence

By Austin Bay (May 03, 2011)

Osama Bin Laden's death is the result of American persistence and American military professionalism. For at least a century, America's enemies and their propagandists have... more

Gadhafi's Five-Front War

By Austin Bay (Apr 27, 2011)

For almost seven weeks, Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi's loyalists and mercenary soldiers have besieged the city of Misrata. Rebel fighters and Misrata's citizenry have... more

Syria: Father-Son Dictatorship Remains in Vogue

By Austin Bay (Apr 20, 2011)

It may rank as one of the most ill-timed feature articles ever published. Peel away the gobs of glamor lingo, and Vogue Magazine's recent article lauding Asma al-Assad, the... more

Into the Fourth Era of Space Exploration

By Austin Bay (Apr 13, 2011)

April 12, 2011, marked the anniversaries of two extraordinary historical events. One hundred fifty years ago, on April 12, 1861, rebels in Charleston, S.C., fired on Fort... more

Gadhafi Shifts Tactics: Pick-up Trucks and Human Shields

By Austin Bay (Apr 06, 2011)

Within the last 10 days, Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi's loyalist forces have modified their combat tactics. Gadhafi's henchmen are now using trucks instead of tanks for... more

Barack Obama: American Exceptionalist

By Austin Bay (Mar 30, 2011)

Once again, it's time for Candidate Obama, circa 2007-2008, to condemn President Barack Obama. For that matter, the April 2009 Obama avatar should also sneer at the current... more

Regime Change: Libya

By Austin Bay (Mar 23, 2011)

Stopping mass murder in Libya requires regime change. The first step toward achieving modern stability in Libya -- not the brittle and brutal false stability of tyranny -- is... more

Gadhafi's Cyrenaica Offensive: A Gift to Dictators

By Austin Bay (Mar 16, 2011)

In March 1941, Erwin Rommel's Afrika Korps broke out of western Libya (Tripolitania) and attacked to the east, into Cyrenaica. By the mid-April 1941, the Germans reached the... more

Calculated Covert Action Against Gadhafi

By Austin Bay (Mar 09, 2011)

In 1941, air power gave Japan significant military and psychological advantages in its war against China. Japanese bombers pounded Chinese ground forces. They also targeted... more

Gadhafi's Cult Leaves Libya Bereft

By Austin Bay (Mar 02, 2011)

Libyan rebels on the outskirts of Tripoli foreshadow the demise of Col. Moammar Gadhafi's four decades of dictatorship. But Gadhafi's not gone -- yet -- and the Libyan Civil... more

Iran's Great Fright Fleet: Will Information Warfare Meet Davy Jones' Locker?

By Austin Bay (Feb 23, 2011)

2011's great cascade of Arab rebellions continues, and even China's oligarchs are feeling its effects. Libya may be next. Meanwhile, back in Iran, the rebellions have... more

Pharaoh or Freedom: Is an Egyptian Democratic Front Emerging?

By Austin Bay (Feb 16, 2011)

As revolutions go, it was the first liberal democratic domino -- and 235 years later, its proclamation that human beings are endowed with the right to life, liberty and the... more

The Pentagon Opts for Economy of Force

By Austin Bay (Feb 09, 2011)

This week, the Pentagon published a national military strategy document, its first revision since 2004. "The National Military Strategy, 2011" (NMS 2011) begins with the... more

Islamist Mensheviks Versus Islamist Bolsheviks -- Egypt's Next Crisis?

By Austin Bay (Feb 02, 2011)

Egypt's complex rebellion is rushing toward revolution. For the near-term, how the Egyptian military promotes, thwarts, and/or negotiates the inevitable redistribution of... more

Moscow's Silent War Explodes

By Austin Bay (Jan 26, 2011)

The Jan. 24 terrorist attack on Moscow's Domodedovo Airport left some three dozen dead and nearly 200 wounded. Russian investigators have yet to identify the perpetrators,... more

Tunisia's Remarkable Revolt

By Austin Bay (Jan 19, 2011)

On Jan. 14, Tunisia's president for life, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, resigned in the face of nationwide protests and fled the country for exile in Saudi Arabia.... more

Twenty Years After: Desert Storm's Air War

By Austin Bay (Jan 12, 2011)

The Jan. 17, 1991, air attacks on Iraq that launched Operation Desert Storm two decades ago gave the world a spectacular look at the high-tech weaponry the United States had... more

As Sudan Divides

By Austin Bay (Jan 05, 2011)

Last August, the government of Southern Sudan (GOSS), the semi-autonomous government administering Southern Sudan, asked a South Sudanese lyricists to write a national... more