Hugo is getting older, however, his paunch is extending. That is a personal pressure, but one Great Leaders and Wannabe Great Leaders consider in their boudoirs. A favorable interpretation of external factors may also lead Chavez to conclude that his opportunity to forge the great Bolivarian state may finally be at hand.
Obama is perceived as weak -- despite kudos from The New York Times and NPR. Colombia faces several internal challenges. War with narco-political guerrillas supported by Venezuela is one problem, but a possible decision by Colombia's own president to alter its constitution to permit his re-election could weaken U.S. support for Chavez's local enemy. Iran is also in Hugo's corner.
What is the great Bolivarian state? Cobbled from Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, parts of Peru, Bolivia and Guyana, and possibly the Dutch West Indies, this South American super-state would, according to Chavez's narrative, be a powerful counter to the hated United States.
This Greater Venezuela is a swamp fever spiel incorporating claims of historical victimization and romanticized allegations of filched lands and stolen honor. Chavez delivers the story with populist outrage that is reminiscent of both Fidel Castro and Benito Mussolini. You could laugh it off -- except Adolf Hitler really meant it when he demanded a Gross Deutschland, and Slobodan Milosevic advanced his dictatorial career by stumping for a Greater Serbia. And Slobo went for it in Bosnia.
The great Bolivarian state would need a great leader, which would of course be Hugo Chavez.
Is Chavez preparing to drop the handshake and grip the sword? Against his own defenseless people Chavez is a brutal thug, but when it comes to a real military confrontation, his record is one of bluster, pop-off and sass. Dictators who sense weakness get reckless, however. They begin to believe their own macho bull.
It's time for President Obama to tell Hugo to cool it, and do so with a frown -- a scowl backed by the U.S. Navy.
Austin Bay is the author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
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