Five years later, the Taliban and al-Qaida remain political rejects. Afghanis recall the brutality of Taliban rule and al-Qaida's leaders are rich, snobby foreigners hiding in caves. Iraq's emergence as a new, democratic state in the Arab Muslim world threatens tribal warlords and religious fanatics with a modernizing alternative on their home turf. These are significant defeats for both organizations.

The Taliban, however, has changed, becoming more of a Pushtun-tribal drug army. Heroin money energizes its attacks, not Islam. Corruption in Afghanistan's frail national government appalls Afghanis who hope for better -- real change is slow and must be nurtured.

Events in Pakistan directly shape today's Afghan battleground. The November 2008 Mumbai attack by Islamist terrorists exposed Pakistan's smoldering civil war. After Mumbai, India gave Pakistani modernists a choice -- end the threat posed by your fanatics, or we will end it, on our terms.

The Pakistani government has taken the war to Taliban sanctuaries, placing the Taliban between two slow grindstones -- Pakistan's army to the south, NATO to the north. The Taliban surge of guerrilla and terrorist attacks in Afghanistan is an attempt by current Taliban leadership to escape the trap by breaking Afghan and international will to persevere. A surge of NATO forces would thwart this ploy both politically and militarily, particularly if Pakistan permits cross-border "hot pursuit" operations. Terrorists exploit anarchic regions -- that is why defeating them means winning a global war. In certain locales, Somalia for example, a "contain and raid" approach may suffice. A seacoast where the U.S. can use its Navy makes counter-terror raiding a more attractive option. In landlocked Afghanistan, a robust counterinsurgency campaign supporting nation-building is the best strategic choice because a stable, self-policing Afghanistan promotes stability from India through Pakistan and deep into central Asia.

Achieving that difficult, time-, treasure- and blood-consuming goal requires a continued major international military presence. It also requires morale-sustaining leadership by a U.S. president who understands on planet linked by Internet and jumbo jets there is no place to retreat.