Count on Vice President Joe Biden to push another wrong button, or at least push his foot into his mouth. In an interview last month, Biden described Russia as suffering from a "shrinking population base" and "a withering economy." Moreover, Russia's "banking sector and structure" probably will not "withstand the next 15 years." This weakened, rapidly declining Russia must make "calculated" decisions. Biden implied those would include security deals accommodating the U.S. and Western Europe. Moscow's acquiescence to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia would be an example of an accommodating deal made by a desperate Russian state.
I don't disagree with Biden's description of Russia's domestic plight -- in fact, I have argued that the day will come when responsible Russian leaders will actively seek a security alliance with the U.S. and Western Europe because of a declining population base and their fear that China wants Siberia. Vladivostok as a NATO seaport sounds far-fetched, but who in 1988 saw Bulgaria, Romania, and Georgia as committed U.S. allies?
However, Joe "The Gaffe" Biden's statements largely undermine the "pride salve" psycho-diplomatic angle. Secretary Clinton has been trying to stem the damage.
Meanwhile, back in Georgia, Russia and the odd semi-statelets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the guns are silent but the passions flame. Except, last week when South Ossetia accused Georgian forces of firing mortars into its territory.
The charge is reminiscent of South Ossetian claims of Georgian aggression in August 2008, accusations that the Russians contend triggered their "peacekeeping intervention." The Georgians called it calculated Russian aggression, an invasion with the goal of turning pro-Western Georgia into a compliant Russian satellite.
Russia is now warning Georgia that it "reserves the right to use force."
Bluster and bluff? Probably. But it is a political repeat and definitely no reset.