John Kerry is the "botched joke" of American politics. For
those of you keeping score at home, John Kerry has now called
members of the U.S. military (a) stupid, (b) crazy, (c)
murderers, (d) rapists, (e) terrorizers of Iraqi women and
children. I wonder what he'll call them tomorrow. Whatever Karl
Rove is paying John Kerry to say stupid things, it's worth every
penny.
Now, back to the midterm elections ...
Analysts place the average midterm loss for the party in the
White House at around 15 to 44 seats, depending on which
elections are counted -- only elected presidents, midterm
elections since the Civil War, midterm elections since World War
II, comparable-sized congresses, first and second midterm
elections and so on.
The average first midterm election loss for every elected
president since 1914 is 27 House seats and three Senate seats.
The average sixth-year midterm election, like this year, is much
worse for the president's party, which typically loses 34 seats
in the House and six seats in the Senate.
This makes the average loss in two midterm elections for the
party in the White House: 30 House seats and four or five Senate
seats in each midterm election.
In his first midterm election, George W. Bush picked up six
House seats and two Senate seats -- making him, according to The
New York Times, "the first Republican president to gain House
seats in an off-year election" and only the third president of
either party to pick up House seats in a midterm election since
the Civil War.
This means that for Democrats simply to match the historical
average gain for the party out of the White House during the
first and second midterm, they would have to pick up 67 seats in
the House and 11 seats in the Senate. They're about 30 Mark
Foleys short of having that happen.
It at least seems clear that Democrat gains this year are
going to fall far short of the historical average. No poll has
the Democrats winning even half of their rightful midterm
gains.
Despite the precedent of big wins in midterm elections for the
party out of power -- especially in a sixth-year midterm election
-- something is depressing the Democrats' popularity with
Americans this year. I suspect it's the perception that many of
them are Democrats.
But instead of recognizing that the Democratic Party is a
dying party, falling far short of its due historical gains, any
gain by the Democrats will be hailed as a crowning mandate for
the party that wants to lose the Iraq war, shut down Guantanamo
and stop spying on Islamic terrorists on U.S. soil.
Even a dying party has death throes. If Democrats win a slight
majority in the House or Senate, Americans will get shrill,
insane leadership of the nation in time of war.
Democrats can't not be crazy. They will instantly set to work
enacting a national gay marriage law, impeachment hearings,
slavery reparations and a series of new federal felonies for
abortion clinic protesters. The only way to get Democrats to
focus on terrorists would be to convince them that the terrorists
are interfering with a woman's right to choose or that commercial
jetliners exploding in midair are a threat to America's
wetlands.
The probable new House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, is in a catfight
with Rep. Jane Harman for not being insane enough. Pelosi has
indicated she will deny Harman the chairmanship of the
Intelligence Committee, instead giving it to Rep. Alcee Hastings,
whom Pelosi voted to impeach from his federal judgeship in 1988
for conspiring to extract a $150,000 bribe from convicted
criminals in return for lowering their sentences.
An O.J. jury had acquitted Hastings on the bribery charge in a
criminal proceeding, though his alleged co-conspirator, attorney
William Borders, was convicted.
But the evidence of Hastings' bribery plot was so overwhelming
that a Democratic House voted to impeach Hastings 413-3 on 17
separate counts -- including falsifying evidence to win his
acquittal in the criminal case, and a majority Democratic Senate
voted to convict Hastings on the very first count by 69-26,
enough to remove him from office.
Rep. John Conyers Jr. -- another finalist for the coveted
"craziest Democrat in congress" title -- led the charge for
Hastings' impeachment, saying the judge had "betrayed his
office."
In addition to having a history of soliciting bribes from
criminals before his court, Hastings wants to shut down
Guantanamo, and he adamantly opposes the U.S. government
listening to phone calls from al-Qaida phones to anyone in
America (especially federal judges negotiating bribery deals by
telephone).
As millions of lunatic Muslims plot to murder Americans, some
Americans -- we call them "Soccer Moms" -- will cast a vote to
save Michael J. Fox this year. In the process, they will put all
Americans at risk by voting for a frivolous, dying party.