The winner in this category will be ... Philip Seymour Hoffman. The awards committee can't give everything to "Brokeback Mountain," and at least Truman Capote was gay (though not a cowboy). I personally would have chosen the lion in the Narnia movie, but he wasn't even nominated.
The nominees for best actress in a leading role are:
-- Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
-- Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
-- Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
-- Charlize Theron, "North Country"
-- Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
I gather Reese Witherspoon is very good in "Walk the Line," but that's irrelevant -- this is the Oscars! Felicity Huffman plays a pre-op transsexual in "Transamerica." That strikes a chord in Hollywood. It's not exactly gay, but close enough! I say Huffman wins.
For best actress in a supporting role, Rachel Weisz ought to win for "The Constant Gardener" because it's about how drug companies are evil, which to me is the essence of quality acting. Plus, English accent equals good acting. But Michelle Williams ("Brokeback Mountain") is engaged to Heath Ledger, who played a gay guy in "Brokeback Mountain." So I pick Weisz, with Williams as the dark-horse favorite.
The best original screenplay will be "Good Night, and Good Luck" as Hollywood's final tribute to the old Stalinists (Hollywood's version of "The Greatest Generation"). George Clooney has been mau-mauing the awards committee by going around boasting that conservatives have called him a "traitor," although I believe the precise term was "airhead."
Finally, my favorite category: best foreign language film. The nominees are:
-- "Don't Tell" (Italy)
-- "Joyeux Noel" (France)
-- "Paradise Now" (Palestine)
-- "Sophie Scholl" (Germany)
-- "Tsotsi" (South Africa)
After consulting with the Yale admissions committee, the awards committee will give the Oscar to ... "Paradise Now," a heartwarming story about Palestinian suicide bombers. How good is it? Al-Jazeera gave it 4 1/2 pipe bombs. It's Air Syria's featured in-flight movie this month -- go figure! I don't want to spoil the ending for you, but let's just say there won't be a sequel.
Normally, the smart money is on the Holocaust movie, so any other year, "Sophie Scholl" would have been the clear favorite. Unfortunately for the makers of "Sophie Scholl," their Holocaust movie came out the same year as a pro-terrorist movie, so they lose.
As a final prediction, for the second year, there will be no mention of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, who was brutally murdered by an angry Muslim a little over a year ago on the streets of Amsterdam. (Now that's blacklisted!) I also predict this will be the lowest-rated Oscars ever. Remember to turn off your cell phones, no talking ... or sleeping.