“Then, as now, people argued the real problem was America’s presence and that if we would just withdraw, the killing would end,” President Bush said of Vietnam. “One unmistakable legacy of Vietnam is that the price of America’s withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like ‘boat people,’ ‘re-education camps’ and ‘killing fields.’”
After the NIE’s release, most media outlets focused on the NIE’s admission that “political reconciliation in Iraq remains elusive” and that “the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to twelve months.”
Debate over the likelihood of political victory in Iraq continued when Democratic senators Hillary Clinton (N.Y) and Carl Levin (Mich.) urged the Iraqi parliament to oust Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, citing his failure to swiftly bring together a unified government. This media cycle continued when Maliki told his critics in Monday press conference: "There are American officials who consider Iraq as if it were one of their villages, for example Hillary Clinton and Carl Levin. They should come to their senses.”
Attention over this international dispute overshadowed the last key judgment contained in the report, which read: “We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI [Al Qaeda in Iraq] from establishing a safe haven would erode security gains achieved thus far.”
Clinton, who is campaigning for the Democratic nomination for President, has repeatedly said that if she is elected in 2008 she will terminate U.S. combat missions in Iraq. Instead, she would direct U.S. troops to assist and train Iraqi forces, just as the NIE cautioned against.
“Recent security improvements in Iraq, including success against AQI, have depended significantly on the close synchronization of conventional counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations,” the NIE reported. “A change in mission that interrupts that synchronization would place security improvements at risk.”
The information contained in the 10-page NIE summary represents the “best collective assessment of security and political conditions in Iraq today and as likely to unfold during the next six to 12 months.” Its production was requested by White House Iraq Coordinator Lt. Gen. Douglas E. Lute and updates a NIE released in January 2007. The August NIE focuses strictly on progress made since President Bush ordered a surge of 21,500 U.S. troops to Iraq in his January State of the Union speech.
The updated report stated there has been “measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation” since the surge has been enacted.
In addition to the NIE that was requested by Lute, several other Iraq reports have been produced recently by the Bush Administration as a condition of various military spending bills passed by the Democratic Congress.
Below is a listing of relevant speeches and reports that have been released this summer related to the Iraq war.
June 7: “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,” a quarterly report submitted to Congress, as required by the “Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 2007.”
July 12: Initial Benchmark Assessment Report, as required by the “U.S. Troops Readiness Veterans’ Care, Katrina Recovery and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act of 2007.”
August 21: Declassified release of a June 2005 Summary of the Office of Inspector General Report on CIA Accountability, as required by “Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007.”
August 22: President Bush speaks at the Veterans of Foreign War National Convention in Kansas City, Missouri.
August 23: National Intelligence Estimate, “Prospects of Iraq’s Stability; Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Remains Elusive,” as requested by White House Iraq Coordinator Lt. Gen. Douglas E. Lute to update the January 2007 NIE, “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead.”
August 28: President Bush speaks to the American Legion Convention in Reno, Nevada.
September 4: Government Accountability Office to release a 70-page report about the prospects for political reconciliation. House will hold hearing on report (date TBA).
Before September 15, date TBA: Army Gen. David H. Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker will testify in open and closed sessions before Congress about the progress being made in Iraq. President Bush will submit his own written report to Congress that will update the July 12 benchmark report.