Amanda Carpenter

Barack Obama has a slim advantage in two out of the four early primary states, but would get crushed on "Tsunami Tuesday" by Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for President, according to recent polls.

Obama has made significant gains in New Hampshire and South Carolina over the last month, but hasn't done enough yet to overcome his large polling deficits in other early primary states.

Last month, Obama would have lost by 9% in New Hampshire to Clinton. Now, he would beat her by 3%, according to a new poll released by the American Research Group. Obama also closed a 12-point polling deficit to Clinton in South Carolina in the same time period. In June, he was polling 21% to Clinton’s 37%. ARG has Obama winning by 5% if the Palmetto Stateprimary election were held today. 

If the polls were to accurately play out, Clinton would then win Florida by 14% before taking three out of the four primary elections held on February 5 in California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. The closest of those elections would occur in Illinois, the state in which Clinton was born and that Obama represents in the Senate. A statewide July poll conducted by the American Research Group gave Obama a 5% advantage there.

Polls predict Clinton would then easily win California by 25%, New Jersey by 22% and New York by 34%.

The possible Clinton Tsunami Tuesday wave is reflected in her wide leads in national polls. The Rasmussen Report declared on Monday, "Democrats will nominate Clinton unless Barack Obama can show them a definitive reason to change their mind" and that "Obama needs a knock-out punch because Clinton will win the bout on points." Their July 30 weekly poll among likely Democratic primary voters polled Clinton at 41% and Obama 24%. A national Diageo/Hotline poll among registered Democratic voters gave Clinton a 9% winning margin over Obama.

Below is the polling breakdown:

EARLY STATES

Iowa, primary date January 14. Clinton leads 9%

Clinton: 33%

Edwards: 24%

Obama: 13%

Poll: American Research Group, conducted July 26-30 among a random sample of 600 likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa. Margin of error: +/- 4 percentage points.

New Hampshire, primary date January 22. Obama leads 3%

Obama: 32%

Clinton: 29%

Edwards: 17%

Poll: American Research Group, conducted July 26-30 among a random sample of 600 likely Democratic primary voters living in New Hampshire. Margin of error: +/- 4 percentage points.

South Carolina, primary date January 29. Obama leads 5%

Obama: 34%

Clinton: 29%

Edwards: 28%

Poll: American Research Group, conducted July 26-30 among a random sample of 600 likely Democratic primary voters living in South Carolina. Margin of error: +/- 4 percentage points. 

Florida, primary date January 29. Clinton leads 14%

Clinton: 31%

Obama: 17%

Edwards: 12%

Poll: Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., conducted July 23-26 among 400 likely Democratic primary voters. Margin of error: +/- 5 percentage points.

TSUNAMI TUESDAY PRIMARIES

California: Clintonleads 25%

Clinton: 49%

Obama: 24%

Edwards: 14%

Poll: Survey USA, sponsored by KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego and KPIX-TV San Francisco, conducted June 29-July 1 among 763 likely Democratic primary voters. Margin of error +/-3.6%

Illinois: Obama leads 5%

Obama: 37%

Clinton: 33%

Edwards: 10%

American Research Group Illinois Poll conducted July 6-9 among 600 likely Democratic voters. Margin of error +/-4%

New Jersey: Clinton leads 22%

Clinton: 37%

Obama: 15%

Edwards: 6%

Poll: Quinnipiac conducted, June 26-July 2 among 575 registered New Jersey Democratic voters. Margin of error is +/- 4.1%

New York: Clinton leads 34%

Clinton: 48%

Obama: 14%

Edwards: 7%

Siena Research Institute New York Poll conducted July 24-28 over the telephone to 290 registered New York Democratic voters. Margin of error is +/-5.8%

NATIONAL POLLS

Among Democrats: Clinton leads 21%

Clinton: 43%

Obama: 22%

Edwards: 13%

Polls: NBC/Wall Street Journal telephone poll conducted July 27-30 among 481 Democrats. Margin of error is +/-4.47%

Likely Democratic voters: Clinton leads 17%

Clinton: 41%

Obama: 24%

Edwards: 14%

Poll: Rasmussen weekly poll published July 30 conducted upon nightly telephone surveys. Seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,300 Likely Democratic Primary Voters, including both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points

Registered Democratic voters: Clinton leads 9%

Clinton: 39%

Obama: 30%

Edwards 11%

Poll: Diageo/The Hotline, July 19-22 among 393 registered Democratic voters. Margin of error +/- 3.5%


Amanda Carpenter

Amanda Carpenter is the author of “The Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy's Dossier on Hillary Clinton,” published in October 2006.
 
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