Alan Reynolds

Alan Reynolds

Receive Updates from Alan Reynolds

 

Consumption versus income

By Alan Reynolds (Dec 21, 2006)

"Something is wrong with America's economic boom," wrote The New York Times. "After nearly four years of ever-stronger growth, people's wages should be going up faster than... more

Nostalgic about 1974

By Alan Reynolds (Dec 15, 2006)

The growth and distribution of income is a topic that generates strong opinions based on weak facts. But if the facts are wrong (and they usually are), then the opinions are,... more

Excessive euro euphoria

By Alan Reynolds (Dec 07, 2006)

The cover of The Economist features "The Falling Dollar," with George Washington's jaw dropping. The accompanying editorial frets about the dollar reaching "a 20-month low of... more

Populist pap

By Alan Reynolds (Nov 30, 2006)

"Here Come the Economic Populists," according to New York Times reporter Louis Uchitelle. Thanks for the warning, Lou. This is stale wine in new bottles. The word... more

Populist pap

By Alan Reynolds (Nov 30, 2006)

"Here Come the Economic Populists," according to New York Times reporter Louis Uchitelle. Thanks for the warning, Lou. This is stale wine in new bottles. The word... more

Treasured letters from Milton

By Alan Reynolds (Nov 23, 2006)

The first significant article I ever published, in the summer of 1971, was about Milton Friedman. And he helped me to get it right. Since he died, there have been numerous... more

The tax gap

By Alan Reynolds (Nov 09, 2006)

A USA Today headline said, "Democratic House Means Changes in Tax Agenda." If so, such changes will be small and subtle. Congressional Democrats might want to reverse the tax... more

Rhetorical overheating

By Alan Reynolds (Nov 02, 2006)

The British government released the "Stern Review" on global warming by Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist for the World Bank. As an economist, I tend to leave this... more

Gas tax trial ballon

By Alan Reynolds (Oct 26, 2006)

The newspapers are suddenly full of hypothetical plans to sextuple the federal gasoline tax, with well-timed insinuations that this might be a post-election Republican ploy.... more

Statistical politics update

By Alan Reynolds (Oct 19, 2006)

My recent column predicted that "the closer we get to elections, the worse economic reporting becomes." To demonstrate how well that theory is working, we need only look at... more

Technological provincialism

By Alan Reynolds (Oct 12, 2006)

Many Americans believe President Bush pushed the price of gasoline down to help Republicans in the upcoming election. Congress believes it can ban Americans from gambling on... more

Recession fairy tales

By Alan Reynolds (Oct 05, 2006)

These must be trying times for those who have spent the past few months or years predicting economic disaster. Oil prices and interest rates have come way down, and stock... more

Car competition

By Alan Reynolds (Sep 28, 2006)

The world auto industry provides an amazing example of the power of competitive capitalism to provide consumers with dramatically improved value for their dollar. Unless, of... more

Work matters

By Alan Reynolds (Sep 07, 2006)

Recent news provided yet another addition to Reynolds' Laws: "If the headline of any major newspaper or magazine article refers to 'inequality' or 'income gap,' you can... more

Statistical politics

By Alan Reynolds (Aug 31, 2006)

I propose this new addition to my growing list of Reynolds' Laws: "The closer we get to elections, the worse economic reporting becomes." Consider the recent New York... more

Witchdoctors and thugs

By Alan Reynolds (Aug 24, 2006)

When President Bush recently used the phrase "Islamic fascists," there was much more critical attention paid to the first word than to the second. Yet the reference to... more

Inflation exaggeration: Part two

By Alan Reynolds (Aug 17, 2006)

The core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2 percent in July. The chain-weighted core CPI did not rise at all, following two months of 0.1 percent gains. Yet the... more

Second-guessing the Fed

By Alan Reynolds (Aug 10, 2006)

The Federal Reserve's open market committee opted to stop raising the federal funds rate, leaving it at 5.25 percent for the time being. This was no surprise on Wall Street,... more

Another Medicare catastrophe?

By Alan Reynolds (Aug 03, 2006)

This year, Medicare began paying 68 percent of the cost of prescription drugs for seniors who sign up for Part D, or about $1,750 per enrollee by one estimate. You might... more

Say it isn't so, Hong Kong

By Alan Reynolds (Jul 27, 2006)

A year ago, I argued that Hong Kong had enjoyed the best tax system in the world for nearly 60 years. The Hong Kong economy routinely grew by 7 percent a year (as it did last... more

Bernanke Bulls

By Alan Reynolds (Jul 21, 2006)

In a recent column, "Which Inflation Target?" I wrote, "It wasn't 'fear of inflation' that spooked the markets on June 5, but fear of the Fed." Any doubts about that were put... more

Tax revenue mysteries

By Alan Reynolds (Jul 13, 2006)

Federal tax receipts continue to soar, with the individual income tax now expected to rise by about 15 percent this year and the corporate tax by 20 percent. A year ago,... more

No intelligence (still)

By Alan Reynolds (Jul 06, 2006)

Some of my favorite conservative commentators appear dismayed that the White House and press paid little attention to news that "Coalition forces have recovered approximately... more

Impaired reasoning

By Alan Reynolds (Jun 28, 2006)

A police officer pulls you over at a checkpoint and asks, "Have you been drinking?" Assuming he wants to know whether you have consumed alcohol in the last few hours, such... more

Our capital account surplus

By Alan Reynolds (Jun 22, 2006)

A recent Associated Press headline was, "Current Account Trade Deficit Posts Unexpectedly Large Improvement." It fell by 6.5 percent. But why assume that was an improvement?... more

Which inflation target?

By Alan Reynolds (Jun 15, 2006)

The consumer price index (CPI) less energy increased by 2.4 percent over the past 12 months, but at a 2.8 percent rate over the past six. Are those numbers unusually high?... more

Immigration parlor tricks

By Alan Reynolds (May 18, 2006)

I'm not a big talk show fan, but I happened to catch Rush Limbaugh interviewing Vice President Cheney about the recent presidential address on immigration. Limbaugh's key... more

The top one-hundredth of one percent

By Alan Reynolds (May 11, 2006)

The fifth in a series of Washington Post editorials lauding the political reshuffling of income begins on the wrong foot. "The quest for ways to reduce inequality,"... more

Mixing gasoline and moonshine

By Alan Reynolds (May 04, 2006)

The House approved by a vote of 389 to 34 a plan to impose criminal penalties and fines of up to $150 million for refiners and wholesalers for "gouging," with a... more

Tax trading trickery

By Alan Reynolds (Apr 20, 2006)

Those who have always opposed all reductions in tax rates on dividends or capital gains believe they have schemed-up a way to cut a one-sided deal. The latest effort appeared... more

Dropout nation?

By Alan Reynolds (Apr 13, 2006)

Time magazine's latest cover story, "Dropout Nation," illustrates a serious educational crisis -- not in the nation's high schools, which are bad enough, but among... more

Immigration misunderstood

By Alan Reynolds (Apr 06, 2006)

I have often written about immigration and never fail to be misunderstood. Even the simplest statements of fact invite angry blogs and e-mails from people who claim to... more

Yes, a rising tide

By Alan Reynolds (Mar 30, 2006)

A recent Washington Post editorial launched another "occasional series about inequality" with a misplaced question mark -- "A Rising Tide?"  "In... more

Going for growth

By Alan Reynolds (Mar 23, 2006)

Try to guess who said this: "High taxes on earned income discourage labor supply and reduce the returns from entrepreneurship and higher education. Growth, innovation... more

The top 10 percent, again

By Alan Reynolds (Mar 09, 2006)

The concept of "income distribution" is fundamentally muddled. Aside from government subsidies and transfer payments, income is not "distributed" at all.... more

Wealth and wages

By Alan Reynolds (Mar 02, 2006)

When the Federal Reserve's Survey of Current Finances for 2004 was released, the leading newspapers naturally indulged their propensity to make the news look as bad as... more

Should Wal-Mart reduce wages?

By Alan Reynolds (Feb 23, 2006)

Maryland recently voted to force firms with more than 10,000 employees to devote 8 percent of their payroll expenses to health insurance, or pay the state the difference.... more

A negative savings rate?

By Alan Reynolds (Feb 16, 2006)

You must have heard that "Americans are spending everything they're making and more, pushing the national savings rate to the lowest point since the Great... more

Presidential priorities

By Alan Reynolds (Feb 02, 2006)

Keeping America competitive requires affordable government. The federal government is by far the biggest expense for successful American businesses and industrious American... more

Below the minimum wage

By Alan Reynolds (Jan 19, 2006)

"What Is a Living Wage?" Jon Gertner's overstuffed cover story in The New York Times Magazine, offers a guess that, "Probably only around 3 percent of those in... more

Executive envy

By Alan Reynolds (Jan 12, 2006)

It is just too easy to describe somebody else as terribly overpaid, particularly when he or she is the boss. As if anyone would be surprised or enlightened, Wall Street... more

Where forecasting went right

By Alan Reynolds (Jan 05, 2006)

The first of the year brings surveys of economic forecasts, which soon become irresistible targets of journalistic derision. Washington Post columnist Steven Pearlstein just... more