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Saturday, January 24, 2009
Wayne Winegarden :: Townhall.com Columnist
Fiscal Illusion
by Wayne Winegarden
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


Over 2,400 years ago the famous Greek historian, Herodotus, counseled that “Haste in every business brings failure.” Now in power, President Obama and the democratic Congress are moving with great haste to spend an additional $850 billion of taxpayers’ hard-earned money (perhaps more) on top of the nearly $1 trillion that the government has already thrown at the current economic crisis, which not coincidentally, was also allocated in great haste. As Herodotus would likely predict, the economic stimulus that this money is supposed to create will come to naught.

The government does not have an extra $2 trillion lying around. Consequently, they will need to increase the national debt in order to pay for the increased spending. Putting this in perspective, between 1776 (when the Colonies started incurring debt to pay for the Revolutionary War) and 2007 the U.S. accumulated a total debt of around $10 trillion. An additional $2 trillion increases the national debt by around 20 percent!

The proposed increase in government debt is an exercise in futility that will exacerbate the economic crisis and burden future generations with higher taxes in order to repay this unprecedented and ill-advised fiscal excess.

Public debt, like private debt, is not necessarily a bad thing. Certainly Bill Gates and Michael Dell must be pleased with the debt burdens they incurred early on in the life of Microsoft and Dell Computer. Similarly, the debts the U.S. government incurred to fight World War II can be viewed as a worthwhile investment. The key to understanding the ultimate impact of the government debt is an understanding of where this money is coming from, and where it is going.

There is no top secret source of revenues for the U.S. government. The government must borrow money in the same debt markets as other government or private entities. Consequently, the dollars that the U.S. federal government raises to fund its debt comes from the same potential investors who could have invested their money with private companies or state and local governments.

In an efficient market, the ability of borrowers to repay their debts is assessed. Those borrowers deemed less likely to repay their debts must pay higher interest rates to compensate for the higher risk the lender is taking. Due to its taxing authority and perception that the U.S. government will always repay its debt, the debt of the U.S. government is considered to be the “safest”.

Normally, investors will have different preferences with respect to risk and return, and in this manner the funds are allocated efficiently across borrowers. But times are anything but normal. Due to the extreme economic turbulence, investors’ appetite for risk has vanished. Everyone wants to hold the safest investment – U.S. debt.

Our current economic woes are defined by this devastating credit crunch. Banks and businesses large and small are having a difficult time funding their operations. The government’s grand plans to jumpstart the economy include bailing out major corporations (such as the auto industry), the banking sector, as well as state and local governments, thereby alleviating the credit crunch. This is where the futility of the government’s borrowings comes full circle.

When the U.S. government raises money, by definition, these activities precludes private companies from raising the same money – investors can only allocate their dollars once. Therefore, by increasing the government debt the government is making it more difficult for companies (and state and local governments) to issue debt to fund their operations. Therefore, every dollar the government spends as part of its gigantic stimulus program has, and must continue, to be diverted away from other potential borrowers (such as private companies).

Had the government not increased its debt a greater amount of resources would have been available for investment in the private sector – the same private sector companies that the government is now “bailing out” because they are not able to raise enough money. Importantly, the judgment of millions of investors would have been deciding which companies should be receiving the funds.

Instead, the government decided to go on a spending binge, and flood the market with increased government debt, worsening the very credit crisis the government’s actions were supposed to be alleviating. Additionally, the political process is now deciding which companies should receive the scarce funds. Political heavyweights such as the automobile manufacturers are now receiving the funds at the expense of other more productive sectors.

The spending spree and de facto nationalizations of key industries will significantly increase our national debt; worsen the U.S. economic fundamentals; and, leave the U.S. economy with another terrible hangover. Worse, these actions push us further down that slippery slope toward a socialized economy.

While it is too late to avoid another hangover, it is not too late to minimize the pain. Instead of spending the $850 billion stimulus in haste, the new Administration and Congress should sit back and rethink its approach to revitalizing our economy. Otherwise, as Herodotus would counsel, our haste will end in failure.

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About The Author

Wayne H. Winegarden Ph.D. is a partner in the firm Arduin, Laffer & Moore Econometrics.

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There will be a Federal Bank that will
hold all these bad assetts. Then in a few years the assetts will climb in value, unless the Dem's give the homes away. It is one way to get some money back.

Right now it is a Polosi party. She even got a new broom to ride.

PresidentialBalls.com

Thank GOP for MESS


FROM:
The President's Working Group on Financial Markets;
Policy Statement on Financial Market Developments

The turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for US. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into early 2007. But the loosening of credit standards and terms in the subprime market was symptomatic of a much broader erosion of market discipline on the standards and terms of loans to households and businesses.


http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/reports/pwgpolicystat emktturmoil_03122008.pdf

====

WHAT CAUSED THIS DEREGULATION?

Bush and the LOCK-STEPPED GOP and AMERICAN DREAM DOWNPAYMENT ACT of 2003.

http://www.hud.gov/news/release.cfm?content=pr03-140.cfm

====

Bush spouted at signing......

"It is in our national interest that more people own their own home."
http://www.americandreamdownpaymentassistance.com/whsp12162 003.cfm

====

"The volume of subprime loans tripled from 2002 to 2006."(page 13)

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/OFHEOPARNovember2007508.pdf

===================================

Between 2004 and 2006, when subprime lending was exploding, Fannie and Freddie went from holding a high of 48 percent of the subprime loans that were sold into the secondary market to holding about 24 percent, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance. Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing laws.

===================================

SO, let's recap....

DURING GOP CONTROLLED YEARS, THEY WEAKENED REGULATIONS AND PUT PEOPLE INTO BAD LOANS ON NOW WORTHLESS HOMES FOR "THE NATIONAL INTEREST".

====================================


Lone
Interesting link you provided. I've read part and downloaded to read the rest later.

I agree the GOP has the most responsibility for this (said as a straight GOP voter for the last 30 years). But I don't know how much that matters now.

I'm very skeptical about the plans for stimulus, and expect that the best we could hope for is a very long period of sluggish economic growth, with very high unemployment.

I'm no Obama fan, but this isn't meant as a criticism of him. I don't believe there is any politically viable solution to this problem, because any real solution would cause much pain in the short term, and pain isn't something politicians like to talk about.

So I thnk that at best we will limp along, increase the debt burden tremendously, and kick the can farther down the road until everything finally comes crashing down, as it eventually must. And that's not guaranteed - I'm not sure that all the gurus we have have any real idea of how to achieve even that modest goal.

This is the message
that the GOP has to get out- and to do so it needs to thoroughly repudiate the Bush years. We need to explain WHY small government is better and WHY deficits do matter.

David
I agree with your overall assessment. The harsh reality is that we have not had a "healthy economy" for the last 15 years or so. We have had the "appearance" of health. But that is all.

The Greenspan policy of manipulating federal interest rates to prevent recession led to two inlationary cycles, the first in stocks, and the second in housing, both of which pumped trillions of unearned and inflated dollars into the US economy. When Bush came into office, the first cycle was ending, and the country was sliding into a recession. The fed responded by pumping low interest money into the economy to fuel it's "famed consumer led recovery". At the same time, the federal government increased it's deficit spending, which averaged $500 billion a year for the last 8 years, (which does not include the costs of the bailouts, stimuls spending, etc). If you eliminate the deficit spending and the inflationary cycle in real estate, unemployment over the last 8 years would have likely been in the 8% range or higher.

Now, the Fed is trapped. Interest rates, for all practical purposes, are at 0%. There is no other segment in the US economy that the Fed can now affect that will inflate rapidly enough to generate another boom cycle to pump trillions of "inflated dollars" into the economy. It certainly isn't stocks, and it won't be real estate. And manufacturing, given it now employs fewer that 10% of American workers, is no longer large enough to give us the lift we need.

What we're left with is government spending. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, it is now projected to be $1.2 trillion - and this is before Obama takes office.

But, ultimately, this cannot be sustained.

The Greenspan era is over. His policies generated short term recovery - but long term pain.

We have entered uncharted waters. All of this talk about a "recovery" is just that.

Refreshing
It is so refreshing to see conservatives concerned about high deficits and the national debt again.

Our New Reality
Under our new leader we can now free ourselves of obsolete and outmoded concepts of economics - balanced budgets, fiscal restraint, limitations on debt, the old ways of creating wealth.

Such archaic rules served only to enslave the people. Old white European males have, for too long, stunted the minds and the imagination of the people. The chains have been broken.

New economics will free the people. We can have all we want and we don't have to suffer the fake consequences the defeated reactionaries used to cause us fear.

We need $$Trillions to cure the economy? This is not difficult. We simply make it appear. We now can make the reality we desire. All this time we only needed to apply our imagination and not tremble in front of the curtain like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz. We've seen him and we now know his threats of fiscal demise were false. His power over us was merely our illusion of it.

Now we are indeed free. We can simply will our way out of this temporary malaise. Our angel, Him, Barak the Highest, has only to wave his hand and we are in balance, with jobs and prosperity for all of us, not merely the privileged few.


The US Government
Has become nothing more than a Commercial Enterprise.

It is a Business Operation and is NOT CLOSE TO A CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT.

If you want to know what we can now expect from this Corporate Federal Government, just look as Sams Club and see how Sams operates, and you will see how Uncle Sams operates as well

Obama is not even the FIRST ....
NON-Natural Born Citizen sworn in as POTUS.

That honor goes to Chester Arthur.

See:

http://naturalborncitizen.wordpress.com/

For Details.

Entitlements
are the cause of the failing economy & entitlements were mostly created by "Democrats" in exchange for votes.

And, yes there were Republicans doing the same thing.

The takers are beginning to out number the workers & we simply cannot go on this way.

Some entitlements will have to go before things can be turned around.

Fixing The Electric Grid
The Obama trillion dollar stimulus plan promises to create extra work for millions of construction workers by installing 3000 miles of new electric lines across the nation. It also should open new opportunities for young minorities that have over a 20 percent unemployment rate to learn construction skills. The hurdle is unions and contracters that refuse to accept hiring and training of millions of ghetto youths. It will be up to the government to hand out the contracts only to those that comply with fair hiring guidlines and help bring millions of unemployed minorities to work repairing our electrical grid.

melvin
The problem with your statement about unions and contractors not hiring ghetto youths is all you have to do is not be convicted of a felony, and pass a drug screen to become a laborer (which most of these jobs will be). If you can pass these two hurdles, you can get a job in construction. The one other hurdle to cross is the employers. In order to build these thousands of miles of new electric lines, they will have to have the graces of organizations such as the Sierra Club and the many other eco groups that stall new construction at every turn. Do you seriously think Obama will be able to convince these groups to allow this construction to occur without obstruction?
I only say these things due to my experience as an Electrical Engineer, and Construction/Repair facility Owner....

Lone
Awesome liberal post. Very typical.

You have finally come to the correct conclusion that relaxed underwriting standards for sub-prime mortgages caused this mess. You then point out that republicans controlled the government at least on paper. End of story. No need to dig any deeper than that. We have the conclusion we want. We have the perp. All we need to do now is prosecute them. It is the exact same methodology that sends innocent people to jail for crimes they did not commit because the prosecutor felt he had an open and shut case and declined any additional evidence. Happens every day. Ask the former Duke lacrosse team.

What evidence you ask. Dodd and Frank's efforts to prevent Fannie and Freddie from being reined in. Their compadres Raines and Gorelick loosening the underwriting standards. Bush and other republicans questioning the wisdom. When you really look at the evidence the culprits are clear and they are liberal democrats. The republican crime was the usual bipartisanship and collegiality. Well, it is a good cause so let's let it run a little longer.

Liberal interventionist government philosophy directly created the conditions for the collapse. Republican unwillingness to fight stupidity and take the heat for the politically incorrect need to stop companies from putting poor people in houses they could not afford allowed the problem to reach its pre-destined conclusion.

It's a lot simpler to just blame the political party in power. Next time it will be just as easy to blame the same party out of power for obstructing the democrats plans and dreams from reaching their make believe conclusion.

When ALL is said and done…
Excellent analysis…we find ourselves knee deep in a “catch-22” scenario brought about by greed for money and power; and percolated by those in power and those seeking such power.

Obama’s and the Democrat’s social and economic re-engineering policies will be complete failures. The average American needs a history lesson or two. Sure the rhetoric sounds and feels good; however, history and commonsense says failure is eventually the long term result. Short term…sounds good…feels good; long term a disaster and a nightmare that will forever change America.

In the long-term, this “change” will create an awaking of America; however we will be forced to endure the catastrophes, over a generation or two that it will unleash. Obama reminds me of others throughout history, with their ability to so quietly and enchantingly say one thing, mean and do another; and people will shake their heads in approval of the very things they oppose. The results of this election provide proof that people can be hypnotized to the degree that they not know what they are doing. What is very scary is that history has also proven repeatedly; that those willing to agree without questioning become hypnotized and are the first to die by the millions.

I fear that the voting public does not really understand the choice they just made. It holds only the promise of security and will definitely create bigger government at all levels, and more entitlements; and carries a huge price tag of more expanded governmental power, deficits, and taxes at the expense of our individual liberties. My hope was that voters would choose the more difficult path of liberty and limited government; so that the American dream and culture for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness would once again triumph and flourish.

When ALL is said and done…America will be the first casualty of the twenty-first century. As Obama goes…so goes America…so goes the rest of the world.

US Patriot 56
Don't really know what that moniker signifies, however enough already. If you have anything to say, say it. Do you know how he came to office? Not by vote of the people, through assination of Garfield. Chester Arthur was the son of a Baptist preacher who had emigrated from northern Ireland, Arthur was born in Fairfield, Vermont, in 1829. He was graduated from Union College in 1848, taught school, was admitted to the bar, and practiced law in New York City. Early in the Civil War he served as Quartermaster General of the State of New York.
I wish you people would do your home work. Don't believe everything you read on the internet. Most have never done research prior to spouting spit.

Marxism Is Only A Thought.
There is no problem in America between Marxists and the Markets. The U.S. government is only influenced by large corporations not imaginary Marxists. A few spread the wealth programs were designed by former corporate CEOs only to jumpstart the economy and increase corporate profits. Nobody is interested in helping the poor shnook not even the closet capitalists called Marxists. Follow the profits not the line to the soup Kitchen.

America should borrow my money, not Chin
If the Federal Government wanted to, they could sell bonds to Americans in protected accounts, such as IRA's, 401K's, etc where we keep our long term savings for retirement. They do not because they would have to pay us interest, a decent interest rate. The Chinese do not have to pay income tax on the interest so they receive a better rate than Americans.
Proposed: make a T-bill that comes due when we take it out of our IRA, etc, that pays 5% interest or 5% above the rate of inflation for the year. Inflation and taxes takes most or all of the interest I earn on savings. Our savings are not safe, I lost most of mine this year thanks to Congressional mismanagement, thank you, Barney and Chris. We have lots of savings and would love to keep it safe and would love to earn a measly 5%. You could do your jobs and protect us from con artists. Oh that's right, you are con artists too.

The Meltdown
The left keep saying GW Bush and Republicans are the cause of our troubles.

The right keep saying the Democrats are the cause. I say both are.

Just as a family cannot go on indefinitely living on credit cards,the government cannot survive on credit.

The left have beaten Republicans about the head and shoulders because we don't do enough for the poor. Minorities vote for the party which gives them the most goodies.

As a so-called 'compassionate conservative' Bush did advocate for low income housing,but that had already been going on for years. Started by Jimmah Cotter.

Bush warned congress that there were not enough regulations and congress,mainly Bawdy Fwank,who had a paramour at FM,looked the other way. The money was good and the living was easy.

The bubble had to burst sometime and since it was going to burst,lets do it on Bush's watch so he can take the fall for it. That will surely make B.Hussein appeal to voters who erroneously will blame Republicans. And the rest is history.




I don't know that much about economics,
but it seems to me there are only four ways to pay for Obama's grand plans: 1) raise taxes; 2) massively cut government spending in other areas; 3) increase our national debt; or 4) just print more money.

#2 is highly unlikely as no one is willing to give up their handouts.

So we are left with raising taxes, which he will do but not right off the bat. The sacrifice he promised will come later when everyone has been won over and joined the Obamacult.

Increasing the debt, which ironically the liberals excoriated Reagan and Bush for, will mean more foreigners having controlling interests in our country. Will it be China or Saudi Arabia? My bet is on Saudi Arabia; he's already called them to "chat." Great plan...NOT.

The last option is the worst of all...runaway inflation and a dollar that's worthless.

All of you libs that think Obama is a genius, chew on these inevitabilities for a while.

Andrea
I think he will do all of the above. With a fawning media covering for him,we will be so far in the hole when we find out how bad it is,there will be no hope for us.

I have read that that is when our money will be changed into something ike the EURO. I hope that is wrong,but who knows?

melvin
that's because you live in a union state
honestly, it's been over a decade since I've seen a construction worker in my area who was born in the US

they are almost all central American Indians here legally and illegally


I for one
want the pain now the sooner the better.

First the longer we drag it out the worse it will get.

Second I want to suffer the pain rather than my children.

We have become a nation full of weak and greedy people at all income and power levels. Honestly, we are terribly corrupt at all levels. The government has created a populace full of people who beieve they are entitled to almost everything a life requires, a business class full of unethical people with no allegiance to the country or their fellow citizens, a spoiled media elite that does not do their job but lives a separate and priviledged existance, and an insatiably power hungry political class that views the rest of us as serfs.

Obama do over!
How ironic that the guy who is NOT a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN - maybe not a citizen at all - maybe not even legally named BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA - was so worried about saying the OATH OF OFFICE correctly....

Maybe he and the Chief Justice should be jaut as concerned about CONSTITUTIONALLY REQUIRED Natural Born Citizenship requirement as they are about the CONSTITUTIONALLY REQUIRED oath of office ...

As it is ... NO "REGULAR" AMERICAN HAS ACTUALLY SEEN OBAMA SWORN IN AS POTUS ...

AND NO REGULAR AMERICAN ONE HAS ACTUALLY SEEN HIS REAL AND COMPLETE HAWAIIAN BIRTH CERTIFICATE ...

So much for a TRANSPARENT presidency.

Of course he is NOT really POTUS ....

So about $1,700,000,000,000 is gonna
get handed out to "stimulate" the economy.

Well, based on the census of 2000 that would be $6040.75 for every US person. I trust the rank and file more than I trust the trustees of the programs shelling out billions to billionairs.

Let's all just keep back the next $6040.75 in federal taxes that we owe. It would be cheaper than cutting checks. Unemployed and minors would get checks, though.

By the way, it's probably more the Dems who brought this on... http://tinyurl.com/a2a9w9




"A Little Government Debt"
Is like being "a little bit pregnant."

Winegarden talks like one of those faux conservatives with one foot in the Keynesian camp and one foot in the Chicago school.

Business can incur debt because it expects to repay the principle and interest from profits made on the use of that money. But, in the event of disaster, the business has the collateral right now to pay it off.

Governments are completely different. EVERY DIME a government takes in it takes, literally, from YOU the taxpayer. Government incurs debt based solely on it's expected ability to extract the principle and interest from YOU...and your children (classic case of taxation without representation).

What you don't/won't see is how roughly the the politicians are sodomizing you.

Your elected representatives steal from you TWICE.

Once when the value of the money you have now is reduced (the inflation tax) by the new money the government spends into the economy.

And again when they take it back from you in an amount sufficient to pay the federal reserve corporation the expected principle and interest payments.

YOU'VE BEEN HAD!

democrats
do you really think this stimulus package will actually work? Did you agree with the $700 billion dollar bailout or the GM bailout? Don't you think an economic slowdown, our currency is being devalued, illegal immigrants are even leaving the country, and a money happy president thrown in the mix will help anything?

Do you guys even have brains?


I wish I could settle this in a ring, cause my fists have a date with Pelosi and Reid.

Must Read
http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/P/tj3/writings/brf/jefl81.htm


Andrea: I don't know much about
economics either. But I think government works like families do. We make payments at a rate greater than the principle accumulates and we take on no new debt.

In short, we make a budget and stick with it.

It seems to me the best way to do this is to reduce government spending significantly to spur growth. Then hold the line on spending while we let the economy grow ahead of outlays. The we begin paying off this massive debt.

It will take fiscal discipline, government belt tightening, and growth to get on top of this. I don't see any of it happening with the current administration.

In fact I don't see it happening with any administration. Beam me up.
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