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Friday, October 26, 2007
W. Thomas Smith, Jr :: Townhall.com Columnist
Lebanon Inching Closer to War
by W. Thomas Smith, Jr
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Lebanon – one of the most critical fronts in the war on terror – is on the brink of a full-blown shooting war. Few Americans living or traveling outside of that country seem to have any prescient understanding of this: Perhaps it is because Americans are so keenly focused on the bloodier, more immediate twin fronts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and our own forthcoming general elections here at home. Maybe it is because the Lebanese media seems to spend more time and energy reporting to itself than to the international press.

No matter the reasons, if we don’t focus more of our attention on this strategically important ally, we’re going to find ourselves in a position – perhaps before Christmas – trying to figure a way to extinguish a sectarian fire far more dangerous than that which we are currently struggling to put out in Iraq.

Not to say Iraq is no longer dangerous: It is. But we already have a huge military footprint there. After nearly five years of fighting, we have a substantive grasp of the war’s various causes and directions. We’re gaining the upper hand – seemingly exponentially -- against the sources of violence. We are standing up strong, legitimate Iraqi security forces. And we are building good relationships with the Iraqi people.

In Lebanon -- where the parliament has less than one month from now to elect a president which it has not been able to do in two previous attempts -- there are multiple armed Jihadist factions: all training, stockpiling weapons, building and rebuilding defenses, gathering intelligence, threatening politicians, assassinating a few, probing existing security forces, and waiting for orders from the likes of Syria and Iran and chiefs-in-hiding like Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Hezbollah, supported by Syria and trained-and-equipped by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, has worldwide reach. But it currently fields between 2,000 and 3,000 armed-militiamen in Lebanon. Hezbollah says its militiamen are “resistance” fighters, because according to United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1559, 1680, and 1701 armed “militias” are outlawed in Lebanon. And Hezbollah can quickly bring another 25,000 men to arms if there is war.

Hezbollah is only one of multiple Jihadist-terrorists factions based and operating in Lebanon. Many, like Hezbollah and Amal, fly their flags together in the same villages.

Then there is the Lebanese military; including the army (and all special operations forces), the navy (with a few patrol boats), and the air force (with no serviceable fixed-wing warplanes): Lebanese forces number only 50,000 men – not counting the 2,500 national police -- and like all armies, only a small percentage of the Lebanese ground forces are front-line combat soldiers.

The strength of the armed forces lies within its junior-officer leadership, tough training for the special operations forces, and the fact that many of the old guard reservists have combat experience from the army and militias during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990).

The weakness of the armed forces lies in its lack of an air force, its religiously mixed army rank-and-file whose divided loyalties might splinter the force in a civil war, and its weak generalship: A corps of “yes men” as I described in a recent piece at National Review Online, many of whom are still taking orders from their Syrian overlords (despite the fact that Syria was kicked out by the United Nations more than two years ago) and they are justifying the existence of Hezbollah by referring to it as a legitimate “resistance” force.

The generals are excusing Hezbollah’s terrorist training, weapons acquisitions, and operational activities. The political leaders are deathly afraid of Hezbollah, which has set up an elections-defying “tent city” between the parliament and the government building. Politicians are being assassinated. Attempts have been made on the lives of Muslim clerics who oppose Hezbollah. Government and business leaders are on Hezbollah “death lists.” Anybody with a voice is under heavy security.

I’m only scratching the surface: I’ve not addressed the Palestinian refugee camp problem, smuggling, and border issues with Syria and Israel (The Lebanese army actually opened fire on Israeli jets that penetrated Lebanese airspace yesterday). Nor have I talked about the buck-passing between the generals and the politicians.

If there is any hope for Lebanon in this current national/international crisis, it may be found in a strong sense of nationalism within the Lebanese people – Christians, Muslims (those not loyal to Hezbollah), and Druze – all brave to a fault, and believing that Lebanon will ultimately achieve complete sovereignty and an incorruptible representative government of statesmen, not politicians.

I spoke with many of them – men and women, young and old, from all walks of life -- while traveling across Lebanon over the past several weeks. They stoically accept the fact that war will probably come and that their lives may get worse before things get better. They are ready to fight as they’ve done so many times in their recent history. But they wonder why it has taken so long for the American people to appreciate the global significance of Lebanon. “Only now [after 9/11] are you interested,” they say.

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About The Author
W. Thomas Smith Jr. is a former U.S. Marine rifle-squad leader and counterterrorism instructor. He is the author of six books, and he has covered war and conflict in the Balkans, on the West Bank, in Iraq, and Lebanon. Visit him online at http://www.uswriter.com.
 
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Without a militant Iran
the broad actions taken by Hamas and Hezbollah would be impossible. THey want to control all of the middle east oil, and I suspect only the involvement of the US is what keeps that from happening.

By the way
For those too young to know, not too long ago, Beirut was considered by many to be the Paris of the Middle East - one of the best tourist destinations in the world - until the Islamo-fascists went to work.

Good article
Very interesting article. I wonder why the UN doesn't just kick Hezbolla out of Lebanon.

Nick!
News flash! No oil in Lebabnon, the occupied terroritories or Gaza. As Ron Paul has pointed out Reagan had the right idea when he decided it just wasn't worth it in Lebanon. It still isn't. These people have been killikg eachother for a thousand years and the will still be doing it a thousand years from now. Isreal can take care of herself. If you think Lebanon is bad, check out the mess in Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc. Beware foriegn entanglements.

Forces
We don't have the forces to open up another front. The gains in Iraq could easily evaporate if we draw down our forces there to deal with the situation in Lebanon. The UN, in turn, has no forces of its own - only those provided for specific missions by member countries. Sanctions against Iran, in turn, are unlikely to work because they are an individual action not fully supported by other countries. Russia, Turkey, etc., will simply fill the trade gap. We do nothing because we lack the ground forces to deal with Lebanon or Iran. Air power is fine, but as we've learned in Iraq, if you don't have the ground forces, you cannot remotely guarantee an outcome. Lebanon, further, will be a full blown civil war. Iran might very well turn out to be the same, as the military, clerics, secret police, and police have a monopoly on power, and all are controlled by the existing power structure. We are trapped in our own policies. The two front war we are now fighting has consumed our forces, and the lack of a draft prevents us from expanding those quickly if we need to.

It's a civil war
with the Sunnis & some Christians aligned against the Shiite Hezbollah and their Christian Druze allies.
To suggest that we have a dog in this fight is just nuts. Reagan knew what he was doing in '83.

The Paris of the Middle East
I'd love to study Arabic in such a place rather than the hellholes one now has to go to.

On the other hand, the only reason I'm studying Arabic is to help in the fight against the Islamofascists, so if they hadn't destroyed Beirut's charm, I wouldn't be going there anyway. Whatever.

Gregdn
You are quite right, and its the bottom line. The USA has not the wherewithal to deal with every pitiful situation in the world. At some point we must limit our participation, and commit blodd and treasure only where we get a positive return. Leaders who spend resources must answer to the voters. LBJ was found wanting and was a one term president. Bush is a lame duck and Iraq can't hurt him now. It may or may not be the defining issue in 08. It will make a big difference in 12. If the 08 winner gets out of Iraq looking good they will be a shoo-in for 12. If Iraq continues to be seen as a debacle by most voters in 12, the 08 winner is toast.

Get it straight nickie-boy!
...until the isrealis bombed it back to the stone age.

Again

and again.

and again.

And if the Lebanese form a stable govt.
Guess who will bomb it!

Gregdn
Christian Druze?

Druze are a splinter of the Shiite (Ismali) moslems who believe in the divinity* of the Shiite(Ismali) Caliph Hakim. Their name comes from that of his first proponent ad-Darazi. Not exactly a Christian group.

Just wanted to correct that.

* Or maybe divine mission. Druze PR on wikipedia makes him only a "uniter", but many historians record the man claimed to be G-d incarnate, and his first prophet surely made similar claims at the time, if historians are to be believed.

You Can't Handle the Facts
If you want PEACE in Middle East, then the U.S. & Israel should defang Syria and Iran. We don't need to open another front as previous comments suggested. The U.S. can very easily accomplish this with Air Power Alone. Israel will be required for a full Ground Invasion to destroy Hamas & Hezbollah and Israel should take out Syria as well. Bomb their weapons factories, their power plants, gas refineries, water plants, communications centers, Military installations, and anything else of interest. If we take out their Military Command & Control and get their Political Leaders, the People of Syria and Iran might decide the price of war is too much and become less violent as a people. One note worthy advise, don't stop until all enemy combatants are dead. Another bit of information that is interesting. Every Palestinian who has been living in Israeli Occupied Territories, employment and standard of living is extremely high. In all other areas, the Palestinians are persecuted. Time for our own Jihad, to kill all Muslim Clerics who teach hatred for others not of their own Religion. This is how you deal with the Islam, which is not now or ever will be a Peaceful Religion.

Sonofsam and Wanda
Israel didn't destroy the "paris of the middle east", the islamofascists did. I'm not saying we should enter the fray, just that without a militant Iran trying to take over the whole region with insurgency and political assassination, we might still have it. But sonofsam, give me a break, Israel destroyed Lebanon? Everytime a responsible Lebanese leader says something promising, someone murders him.

You want to turn over the oil in the middle east to these idiots? Even Hillary and Obama wouldn't let that happen. I heard Neville Chamberlain was trying to reach you from the grave.

Lebanon's crisis
I just spent 4 years as a contractor in Iraq; I'm a r3etired milirtary officer. If you want to stop Islamic-fascism, monitor the clerics as they preach- or throw them all out, both in the U. S. and elsewhere, and start over. They preach Jihad in Michigan, right into our faces, yet we support them.
I feel for the Lebanese but the whiner who accused us of no interest until post 9/11 igores the 241 Marines murdered in Beruit so long ago. Whine on; it's everyone's fault but your own!

BREAK-A-LEG
First, every news story, especially the tragedy that exists in the Middle East shows a variety of fractions that prolong the problem. There are so many pseudo-Muslim groups, that they are not named in an area story. However, they all have one thing in common. They are made up of two foundational generators. They are-- entertainment and funding. Unemployment demands the free time of able men to be filled. Playing a part in the game of death, fills the conscious hours with something to do, and heightens the senses over all other occupations. Pay and nutrition sustain it. Inter-communication of the collusion and reading about it in another entertainment media, the press, gives their effort credibility. The circle of this entertainment industry is funded by the producers, who in turn are entertained by their production. Most producers will fund several competing theaters of operation. The largest investor is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They are in the highest echelon of the entertainment business and derive all funding for it from international sources that pay for the operating expenses. Oh, I forgot to mention, the conflict is not religious. By simply investigating the funding of any criminal theater below, then working up and outward, real investigative journalism will reach its true value. The problem with this type of journalism is that the result does not bring in any profit. You see folks; today’s journalism has been morphed into being the public-relations arm of this entertainment business. Yes, ninety-two percent of newsgathering and its reconstitution for public heralding is a profit making entertainment industry. Finally, instead of leading the nation in solving domestic and national defensive problems, The US Democratic Party has joined this entertainment industry. Their strategy for gaining personal profit gleaned from earmarked criminal enterprise, through power over the US national treasury, is to poorly educate then entertain the illiterate voter.

W. Thomas Smith Jr. writes:
"But they wonder why it has taken so long for the American people to appreciate the global significance of Lebanon."

When the Islamic nations, as a whole, speak out against the Great Satan, what do you expect? America, is getting really tired of all the Islamic denounciations against us. There's only so much you can do in good faith and when you are repeated bashed for this and that, you ignore the problem until it blows up. Then you can use the kind of force that only these people understand. The reason Hezbollah is such an overpowering force is that most people don't want to get viciously killed by these fanatic sadists. The voice and strong arm of Islam is made up of these psychopaths. It is high time for the moderates to take the law into their own hands and fight the evil that is Islamo-fascism. You can see where this is beginning to happen in Iraq. This should be a model for other Islamic countries to follow. American can't be doing it for them.

"Inching closer"?
There has been very little time when war was NOT the prevailing situation in Lebanon since 1970--when PLO went in after getting booted from Jordan where it had fouled nest; not learning from this, Arafat again fouled nest in Lebanon through extortions, murders, etc.

It is (though remotely) possible that at least a lull may have been induced if Reagan had allowed Israel to take out turdocrat Arafat!

Odd disanalogy
There does not seem to be anything in here about Lebanon which is untrue (although the omission that Hezbollah has allies among the Christian Maronites was selective) but it was funny to see the evidence that this was likely to get worse than Iraq contained nothing which is not true today on a larger scale in Iraq, which we are told is under control. But nothing we are doing in Iraq is addressing the underlying dynamic that Smith finds so dangerous in Lebanon.

Possibly his view is that we should happily take the current level of casualties in Iraq indefinitely. But unless his is a call for permanent occupation, it is hard to see in what sense the Iraq problem is getting better when all of the problems he identifies in Lebanon are simply festering.

lebanon
this should be another misadventure america needs to stay away from. The pr war waged by the muslims has already been won. The have convinced all those brain washed cultists they are winners and that that america has already lost. The net effect: thousands will readily line up to kill themsleves to advance the spread of islamism. The people would rather die to advance their blood cult than fight to preserve their freedom. Bush should have taken out syria years as a real object lesson to these islamists. We are faced with seemingly 2 options: try to stand between separate groups of killers to keep them from their savagery or get out of the way and allow the savagery to go on. The whole region seems determined to leave behind the advances of mankind and lock themselves into the 11th century. One lesson in life the president overlooked. You can't save people who will not save themselves. It seems the region has chosen the path of total self destruction, better we stand aside rather than waste our treasury and lose more of our youth in a hopeless cause.

Lebanese misery of Syrian making
The US and ME allies need to put some in-country pressure on Syria. By proxy if possible. I thought that Israel had a working relationship with the Christian fraction...but have learned that power questing at the upper echelons has resulted in re-alignment of loyalties.

For Ron & gregdn
Gregdn, you say "Reagan knew what he was doing in 1983", but you neglect to mention the key word "BELATEDLY"--as he sent in the Marines without adequate firepower, figuring that their appearance-on-scene would in itself cause factions to dissipate.

Ron, partly correct in your headline "Lebanese misery of Syrian making". In reality: PLO (from 1970), Syria (from somewhat later--as Assad did not like Arafat whatsoever, and wanted to "muscle-in" and take Lebanon from him) and also Iran (by proxy Hezbullah). Unfortunately, the multiple INTERNAL factions of Lebanon (which seem to be more numerous than pol-parties in India, at least for the population involved) also contributed greatly by allying with the foreigners (or amongst themselves) as they assumed would serve their own ends.

the war on terror

The "war on terror" is such an inane concept it only proves the contempt our "leaders" have for us. Besides, the "war" was lost with the passage of the so called Patriot Act (another moniker designed to trick the gullible). When you are so scared you are willing to give up your liberties then the "terrorists" already won.


nicky and ron
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/761781.html
IDF commander: We fired more than a million cluster bombs in Lebanon

"What we did was insane and monstrous, we covered entire towns in cluster bombs," the head of an IDF rocket unit in Lebanon said regarding the use of cluster bombs and phosphorous shells during the war.

Quoting his battalion commander, the rocket unit head stated that the IDF fired around 1,800 cluster bombs, containing over 1.2 million cluster bomblets.

In addition, soldiers in IDF artillery units testified that the army used phosphorous shells during the war, widely forbidden by international law. According to their claims, the vast majority of said explosive ordinance was fired in the final 10 days of the war.

The rocket unit commander stated that Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) platforms were heavily used in spite of the fact that they were known to be highly inaccurate.

The cluster rounds which don't detonate on impact, believed by the United Nations to be around 40% of those fired by the IDF in Lebanon, remain on the ground as unexploded munitions, effectively littering the landscape with thousands of land mines which will continue to claim victims long after the war has ended.

'Excessive injury and unnecessary suffering'

It has come to light that IDF soldiers fired phosphorous rounds in order to cause fires in Lebanon. An artillery commander has admitted to seeing trucks loaded with phosphorous rounds on their way to artillery crews in the north of Israel.

A direct hit from a phosphorous shell typically causes severe burns and a slow, painful death.

question
When, if ever, was there peace, defined here as the absence of war, in the Mid-East?

It seems to me that they just live to fight and kill.

All in the name of Allah, to be sure.

Yeah Shimon,
great idea. Arm countries who are brutal, anti-American, back stabbers with a global agenda so they'll leave us alone. What a wuss!

I never understand
The western democracies created Lebanon for the Christians and their Druze neighbors, and the balance of the French mandate became Syria with the muslim populations. Lebanon in the beginning of its existence was about 75% Christian. Afterward, as the Syrians moved muslims in, the western democracies did nothing; after Jordan drove trouble-making Palestinians out, they went to Lebanon...the West did nothing; after the USA pressured Israel out of southern Lebanon after its incursion against the relocated Palestinians, Iran moved Hezbollah into Lebanon. All through the time since the "great powers" carved her out and made her an independent nation, those same creating powers have done little to assure her survival, certainly a survival for her originating purpose.
you know....WHY ARE THERE STILL PALESTINIAN "refugee camps" in Lebanon; I thought when we forced Israel to tender over the West Bank and Gaza to Arafat and his Palestinians, the "refugee" Palestinians were to go there? Why wasn't this enforced? At least that much of the Lebanon problems today would not exist.
Poor Lebanon; she's had the very best of allies.

charlie - fyi
"WHY ARE THERE STILL PALESTINIAN "refugee camps" in Lebanon"

1. Palestine keeps 'shrinking'
2. isrealis make Palestine intolerable
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/757768.html
Gaza's darkness

Gaza has been reoccupied. It is in its worst condition, ever. The IDF has been rampaging through Gaza killing and demolishing, bombing and shelling, indiscriminately.

under the cover of the darkness of the Lebanon war, the IDF returned to its old practices in Gaza as if there had been no disengagement. How contemptible all the sublime and nonsensical talk about "the end of the occupation" and "partitioning the land" now appears. Gaza is occupied, and with greater brutality than before.

In large parts of Gaza nowadays, there is no electricity. Israel bombed the only power station in Gaza, and more than half the electricity supply will be cut off for at least another year. There's hardly any water. Since there is no electricity, supplying homes with water is nearly impossible.

In the last two months, Israel killed 224 Palestinians, 62 of them children and 25 of them women. It bombed and assassinated, destroyed and shelled, and no one stopped it. A day doesn't go by without deaths, most of them innocent civilians.

israel drops innumerable missiles, shells and bombs on houses and kills entire families on its way to another assassination. Hospitals are collapsing with more than 900 people undergoing treatment. Children who lost limbs, on respirators, paralyzed, crippled for the rest of their lives.

Families have been killed in their sleep, while riding on donkeys or working in fields. Frightened children, traumatized by what they have seen, huddle in their homes with a horror in their eyes that is difficult to describe in words.
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