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Thursday, October 09, 2008
Victor Davis Hanson :: Townhall.com Columnist
Wall Street 101
by Victor Davis Hanson
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Until the past few weeks, the financial panic was still mostly far away on Wall Street. But not now.

Car loans, mortgages and college financing are suddenly harder to come by. Millions are stuck in houses not worth what is owed on them. Cash-strapped consumers are cutting back. The economy is slowing. Jobs are disappearing. Who wants to open quarterly 401(k) statements only to learn that everything they put away in retirement accounts the past two or three years is gone?

There is plenty of blame to go around. Greedy Wall Street speculators took mega-bonuses even when they knew their leveraged companies were tottering -- and someone else would pick up the tab. Crooked or stupid politicians allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to squander billions, as they raked in campaign donations and crowed about their politically correct support for millions of shaky -- and now mostly defaulting -- buyers.

The new national gospel became charge now/pay later and speculate, rather than put something away in case of a downturn. To provide more goodies that we hadn't earned, politicians ignored soaring annual budget deficits and staggering national debt and kept spending.

But amid the gloom, there are some valuable lessons that we can take away from the Wall-Street panic.

First, cash really is king. For all the talk of a trillion here or billions there, when the crunch came many of these investment houses and their once-strutting managers found themselves with a minus net worth. They were desperate to find liquidity -- any money anywhere they could find it. Pedestrian passbook savings accounts proved wiser investments than all the clever hedge funds, derivatives and sub-prime schemes put together.

Second, wisdom and blue-chip college educations are not quite the same thing. The fools in Washington and New York who blew up Wall Street had degrees from our finest professional schools.

The most chilling example, at the very beginning of this ongoing mess, came in 2003 during the House Financial Services Committee's hearing on Fannie and Freddie. At one point, Harvard Law School graduate Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., asked Fannie Mae CEO and fellow Harvard Law School graduate Franklin Raines -- who took millions in bonuses even as he helped bankrupt the once-hallowed institution -- whether he felt the mortgage giant had been "under-regulated." Raines answered him under oath, "No, sir." Then overseer Frank announced, "OK. Then I am not entirely sure why we are here."

If these guys are our best and brightest, then it is about time we rethink what constitutes wisdom, since an Ivy League law degree certainly seemed no proof of either intelligence or ethics.

Third, we as a nation need to relearn the old notion of shame -- as in "shame on you!" Firms like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were once responsible Wall Street institutions, built up over decades by sober men. But their far-lesser successors in just a few months have bankrupted these venerable brokerage houses -- with seemingly no shame at what they have done to the image of Wall Street.

Americans used to pay their debts. Somewhere in all the blame-gaming about the crooks and liars in New York and Washington, we never hear that real people borrowed real money that they should not have. And they then defaulted on what they owed to others. Walking away from debts may have been understandable, but it was also a violation of trust -- and wrong.

Finally, what one makes is no proof of his worth. Almost every head of a Wall Street firm took tens of millions of dollars in bonuses these past few years, as they posted phony profits by borrowing ever more with ever fewer assets. But if financing facilitates the American economy, we should remember that less exotic and remunerative construction -- such as farming, manufacturing and mining -- is what really powers America.

Recently, Americans built a new bridge across the Mississippi River in Minneapolis to replace the older one on I-35 that collapsed last year. It was finished three months ahead of schedule, and the industrious construction team that worked 24/7 to make thousands of commuters safer is now eligible for up to $27 million in well-earned incentives. Meanwhile, Franklin Rains at Fannie Mae made nearly twice that sum in bonuses -- leaving behind nothing much at all other than billions in other peoples' debts.

How odd that all those boring lessons from our grandparents turn out to be true in the globalized, hip 21st century: Save your money. Don't borrow what you can't pay back. Look first at a man's character, not his degrees. And if a promised return on an investment seems too good to be true, it probably is.

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About The Author
Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a recipient of the 2007 National Humanities Medal.

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These arguments makes no sense
These arguments makes no sense -

1st GSE's WERE regulated by two agencies HUD and OFHEO, BOTH of which are administered by the EXECUTIVE BRANCH - i.e. President Bush. HUD deals with regulatory oversight concerning the GSE mandate to provide affordable housing assistance and other non-discrimination rules and OFHEO was charged with overseeing the capital requirements and other financial aspects of the GSEs.

2nd if the Bush Administration was so concerned about the GSEs oversight as it related to its financial condition then WHY would the administration change the mandates to require the GSEs to take on MORE affordable housing loans in 2004.

It is simple - sure Dems in Congress wanted the GSEs to promote more loans for poorer people - BUT it was the PRESIDENT as the EXECUTIVE who had nearly all the power in terms of regulating all aspects of the GSEs; and even the easiest Google search will demonstrate that, President Bush was just as complicit in this mess as anyone (and more so if you consider the ability to back up policy with regulatory authority)
banking.senate.gov/public/_files/weicher.pdf



Strangely...
Strangely enough, the polls seem to show that the majority of Americans believe that Republicans are to blame for all this.

Advice for Barney
Responding to increasing revelations about his role in the Fannie/Freddie scandal, Barney Frank said, "They get to take things out on poor people ... Let's be honest: The fact that some of the poor people are black doesn't hurt them either, from their standpoint. This is an effort, I believe, to appeal to a kind of anger in people."
Hey, Barn, if you really want to help poor people have housing, pick up a hammer and join Habitat for Humanity. Don’t wreck our economy by pushing loans to high-risk borrowers and make us all poor. You are a social disease.

Sarah's education
Sarah's degree from the Univ. of Idaho now looks a lot more respectable than degrees granted by Harvard to rascals with far less common sense than she.

And so does mine from the Univ. of Kansas.

A lesson learned?
I would not be nearly as depressed over the state of our economy if there were any signs that America will learn the lessons set forth above; save, don't borrow what you can't pay back, character counts, etc. However, all I see is a headlong rush to deal with the problem by becoming socialist - let the government bail us out. Then, we just keep on as we were before. America is in denial and I am beginning to think that nothing will force us to see the truth short of a wholesale depression where we all start over from zero.

Down like Katrina
The stronger banks lead the drop in the market all day long. That is because the ban on short selling of financial institutions was lifted today. The market was starting to bottom until it was sabotaged by the Bush administration for the 3rd day in a row.

Bernanke, Paulsen and Cox are fighting the fire with one hand (and in some cases actually doing the right things) but they are hosing the fire with gas with the other hand.

It is like watching Katrina all over again. You do not lift the ban on short selling when you are trying to form a bottom. Asia and Europe will now go thru another round of collapse.

The damage done by the drop in housing prices is nothing compared to the damage done by the crash in global equity and the liquidity problems. The latter are much more important and impact a much broader swatch of the real economy. We are watching a classic example of how to create an extreme recession.

Only 4 % of houses are in default. However, that will now rise dramatically as the clowns in the Bush administration destroy confidence in both government and markets and kill the real economy. Can't you please get your pathetic act together?

Much of the selling today is short selling. That will reverse if we ever find a bottom.

This administration only worries about the hedge funds who are transferring the wealth out of your 401K and into their coffers.

I do not think it is incompetence, I think it is by design. The rich do not care if the market goes up or down as long as they are on the right side of it. However, the working and middle class care if the market is strong. There jobs depend on it.

Greed
I call BS on blaming Wall Street, as Vic says above, they were just doing what they do.

There is definitely greed at work here, though. The so-called subprime mortgages, started way back in 1977, weren't too much of a problem as long as they were done on a small scale. But, org's like ACORN got greedy and kept pushing the edge further and further until the economy could no longer absorb the bad debts.

It's like a father with a spoiled kid that keeps spending on Dad's credit cards. As long as it's small potatoes, Dad doesn't mind too much. But then, the kid figures he isn't getting enough free cookies, and goes out and maxes the cards. Suddenly, Dad realizes he has a problem - now he has to go out and take a 2nd mortgage on his house just to pay off the bills.

And, the problem? All we've done was pay the current bills with the 2nd, but we haven't taken away the kid's credit cards yet.

If you don't understand the analogy - stop blaming Wall Street and face the root cause of the problem - a public policy of forcing lenders to issue bad mortgages. Until we do, we'll just run up the bills again and be in even worse shape down the road.

Genius 2
I read a lot of columns at TownHall and they are almost all good to excellent.
The worst was Kathleen Parker calling for Her Sunshinness herself (AKa The Moose Hunter) to step down because she was hurting McC. Katheleen, chill!! Put the cool aid down!
But 'The Absolute Best' so far:
This column by VDH. past good. past excellent. directly to Great!!!
Most Sincerely,
Bill M.

OBAMA LIVES ON THE MOON!
OBAMA YELS ME AND AL SHARPTON AND RANGEL,AND AL GORE WILL FIX THIS MESS!FROM WALL STREET TO MAIN STREET,EVERY TIME OBAMA IS AHEAD IN THE POLS THE MARKET TANKS!JUST RUN FROM OBAMA-MAN!

Genius
My response to V.D. Hanson's column was too long for the response section so I made it the first entry on my blog.

http://mycornerofmainstreet.blogtownhall.com/

Sincerely

Dr K

"Bad Moon Rising".
"..the only option we have now is to take on more debt to solve the problems we created by having too much(debt)in the first place. We've spent the last 20 years throwing out standards...we threw out the old standards on how to value companies, and created new ones that permitted people to justify turning the market into something that was little more than a casino. And when company values, utterly disconnected from realistic principals, became absurd, we then switched to the consumer led recovery, and to the idea that debt was good. Well, I happen to believe that Nouriel Roubini's evaluations suddenly being taken seriously - the market will likely fall to 7000, which is where, if you go back to the excessive inflationary cycle in stocks that began in 1987, is where it should be. Only when we have seen these things, will we be back to basics."

A quote from Redlac.

A valid assessment.

There was an old song by Creedence Clearwater Revival entitled "Bad Moon Rising", and it was written by John Fogerty, I think.

Its lyrics resonate today.

Those who know the song, know how great it is.

Those who don't, ought to at least google it and read the lyrics.

I think we are in for some difficult times.

I am beginning to believe Obama is better suited to deal with such times than McCain.

Our problems totally transcend conventional notions of liberality and conservatism.

But neither candidate has been even remotely honest with the American people as to what is in store for them.

And this infantile fascination for Palin among some may agitate the flock but has no bearing on dealing with what confronts us.

What is Cash?

Now just a word about cash, the most underrated, the most mysterious word used in these discussions.

How much cash is there, how much is used, and where is it? Do you really think that when someone talks about transferring ten dollars, ten million dollars, or 10 trillion, any cash was involved?

All of the money talked about is just numbers on paper. When you bought your house, maybe, just maybe, you used used a few dollar bills to pay the notary, but I bet the down payment, the escrow bills, the RE agent, were all paid with a piece of paper with a bunch of numbers written on them.

The assets of a large or a small bank, brokerage office, or Freddie and Fannie, are just numbers on a sheet of paper.

You have heard of that stupid pile of yellow metal piled up in that big building in Fort Knox, KY? Now tell me what good that does anyone and why it is there.

I often gave my Beautiful Lady items made of that metal, and I can assure you that her “repayment” was much, much better than a few $100 bills. In that case a dollar bill going in either direction, a number entered on a sheet of paper, would never replace the value of the little hunk of metal.

But name me another use for that stuff at Ft. Knox.

Since those numbers are accepted as something of a real value, how do we keep the people who write those numbers honest?

The tens of thousands of people and companies who are responsible for all of this, have all had 6 or 8 years of higher education, and 10, 20, 30, or more years of experience changing numbers on this sheet and that, but still they screwed our finances up, beyond all recognition.

(And many said the Alaskan Sweetie needed more experience.)

The Fred and Fan people who walked away with bonus payments equal to the net worth of millions of regular workers don’t care, they just write a new number on this or that page, and go on their way.

Blarney Tank the Rep from Mass, will get relected, and not go to jail, as he should.


If John McCain were making...
... these points, rather than clucking about Wall Street greed and promising more bailouts, he'd have a 10-point poll lead today.

Cont'd.
Then, of course, we will have a government and a people still buried in debt, and it will take years to sort it out. We cannot spend 17% on health care while the rest of the world spends 9% - 10%, 22% on defense as opposed to 5% to 10% for everyone else, nor maintain the same level of entitlements that we currently have.

I don't, at this point, really know why anyone would want to be President for the time being. But they do, and whether it is McCain or Obama, they will both pay the price of a public and government whose expectations have absolutely no basis in common sense or reality.

Back to Basics
VDH points out what we once knew, and will, apparently, have to learn again. Needless to say, the government is not too interested at this point in taking us there, but in the end, it will happen whether we like it or not. In the last 8 years or less, consumers have doubled their debt, the government has done something similar, and the only option we have now is to take on more debt to solve the problems we created by having too much in the first place. We've spent the last 20 years throwing out standards. A stock market that crossed 2000 for the first time in 1987, ballooned to 12,000 ten years later. To enable that, we threw out the old standards on how to value companies, and created new ones that permitted people to justify turning the market into something that was little more than a casino. And when company values, utterly disconnected from realistic principals, became absurd, we then switched to the consumer led recovery, and to the idea that debt was good. Well, I happen to believe that Nouriel Roubini's evaluations - suddenly being taken seriously (given an uncomfortably accurate track record), are going to be realized. Just as housing values must return to the values that houses had prior to the inflationary cycle (primarily based on replacement costs), and must equally fall in line with rental reinvestment standards, the market will likely fall to 7000, which is where, if you go back to the excessive inflationary cycle in stocks that began in 1987, is where it should be. Only when we have seen these things, will we be back to basics.


JMartin
Excellent post. You win the day for the shortest comment thus far but totally worthless. Never attack another poster, its bad taste.

JMartin
Have a cigar.

Correct.


Ah, VDH, it's RainEs, not Rains,
which is what the weather is doing here in MA this morn. A little pedantic, but you're a highly educated man, who should either do his own research better, or have a better editor/fact checker.

A cigar for VDH
"Law School graduate Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., asked Fannie Mae CEO and fellow Harvard Law School graduate Franklin Rains -- who took millions in bonuses even as he helped bankrupt the once-hallowed institution -- whether he felt the mortgage giant had been 'under-regulated.' Raines answered him under oath, 'No, sir.' Then overseer Frank announced, OK. Then I am not entirely sure why we are here"..quotes VDH.

So what we have here is an admission from one of the crooks(Rains)that lack of regulation was not a problem.

I am sure it wasn't.

In fact, it was an inducement.

It assisted him and others to loot and bankrupt Fannie Mae.

And this anything-goes mindset, this culture of greed, permeated Wall Street as hucksters bundled toxic debt into trendy "financial instruments" to be gobbled up by fellow con-artists out to make a quick buck, and who were not burdened by "oppressive" regulations requiring them to document they had sufficient assets to take on all this gargantuan debt.

At least VDH has the intellectual honesty to concede the problem goes far, far beyond Democrat shenanigans to pressure F&F to make injudicious loans to Democrat party "constituents".

This mindset infected Wall Street, and ourselves, too.

Another 1
A number of BS statements here Hansen:

1. Car loans, mortgages and college financing are suddenly harder to come by.

Everyone keeps saying this but in the few times that a reporter or pundit has actually gone out and checked it these loans are fully available. In short the press is widely reporting financial woes that don’t exist. Could there be a reason for that?

2. There is plenty of blame to go around.

As I said yesterday, the blame that goes around does so from one Democrat to another. Blaming “greed” on Wall Street is like blaming a duck for getting wet and just reflects that the “blaimee” is a socialist playing the class card.

3. Crooked or stupid politicians allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to squander billions, as they raked in campaign donations and crowed about their politically correct support for millions of shaky -- and now mostly defaulting -- buyers.

You left out the D here, but did add it later.

Barney Frank
was dating some guy over at Fannie, or was it Freddie?
Mr Hanson, you utter two words above which put the whole mess in a nutshell: 'politically correct.' Just be careful never to elaborate. You'll be skinned!

The lazy man's way out
Barney Frank is no smarter than Al Capone. Lack of brainpower didn't keep either from getting rich.

People speculated in housing, banks speculated in mortgages and financiers speculated in oil futures. All of these areas experienced wild swings because of actions taken by the US government. If they had just kept their greedy fingers out of the American pie, our economic growth would be smaller, our carbon footprint would be smaller, and our happiness quotient would be higher.

But no. Growth at any cost. To paraphrase Tom Robbins (Frog Pajamas) "We built ourselves a nice economic bonfire. But rather than bask in its warmth and read the classics, we had to pour more and more fuel onto it, until it consumed everything in sight. One quarter without growth was cause for great concern. Nature limits the growth of all things. You thought commerce would be any different?"

For a couple of years now, to make up for a sagging economy, Big Business and Congress (and especially the Dems) have worked behind the scenes to add thirty to forty million new Americans to the rolls. To them, Bigger is always better. Without growth we will all die.

The truth is, relying on economic growth is the easy way out. It is the lazy man's solution. Hard work, planning and strategic infrastructure improvement is the way to go.
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