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Thursday, May 08, 2008
Victor Davis Hanson :: Townhall.com Columnist
Presidential Pariah
by Victor Davis Hanson
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


We are in one of the longest presidential campaigns in modern memory -- and haven't even started focusing on the general election.

It's been enough to drive most of us mad, but if there's one person in particular suffering the most, it may be President Bush.

It's been noted here before that we have not had an election since 1952 in which an incumbent president or vice president was not running in at least partial defense of an existing administration's record.

That means Bush is not just a lame duck but an easy target for all three current candidates -- none of whom have any investment in the president’s legacy.

Consider that the last president in a similar position was Harry Truman. He left office with an approval rating in the 20s, and it took years before historians revised the standard negative and mostly unfair view of him.

When there is no incumbent in a long race, almost everything of the last four years becomes fair and uncontested game. In 2004, Bush defended his record for months on the stump; now it has become almost second nature for all three candidates to denounce it daily.

John McCain has distanced himself from Bush as much as he can, even as his Democratic opponents dub him John McBush -- when they are not outdoing each other in their denunciation of the president.

Last week, I asked a fierce Bush critic what he thought were the current unemployment rate, the mortgage default rate, the latest economic growth figures, interest rates and the status of the stock market.

He blurted out the common campaign pessimism: "Recession! Worst since the Depression!"

Then he scoffed when I suggested that the answer was really a 5 percent joblessness rate in April that was lower than the March figure; 95 to 96 percent of mortgages not entering foreclosure in this year’s first quarter; .6 percent growth during the quarter (weak, but not recession level); historically low interest rates; and sky-high stock market prices.

There are serious problems -- high fuel costs, rising food prices, staggering foreign debt, unfunded entitlements and annual deficits. Yet a president or vice president running for office (and covered incessantly by the media) would at least make the argument that there is a lot of good news, and that the bad that offsets it could be shared by a lot of culpable parties, from the Congress to the way we, the public, have been doing business for the last 20 years.

Bush, like Truman, will have to leave his final assessment for posterity. But for a variety of historic reasons as well as his own self-interest, Bush should at least take his now-unpopular case to the people, with more press conferences, public addresses, stump speeches and one-on-one interviews.

Bush’s own legacy will be affected by who succeeds him. Ronald Reagan received great press after leaving office in part because a Republican followed him for four years -- quite the opposite from the senior George Bush who was thrown out of office in 1992 and blamed for assorted sins the next eight years. Likewise, compare the image of Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton when a president from the opposite party followed each into office.

Second, public perceptions, such as ongoing consumer confidence or support for the war, can dramatically affect policy success or failure. Defending past decisions can sometimes improve their outcomes.

Third, it would elevate the arguments of all three candidates if someone could remind them that energy and food problems, foreign policy crises and economic woes usually involve bad and worse choices.

The American people are more interested in exactly how they are going to improve things, rather than hearing each hour how our collective problems are simply the fault of one man. Searing “Bush did it” into the public conscious won't resolve our energy, economic or foreign policy challenges.

The truth is that America is providing unprecedented amounts of money to address the AIDS epidemic in Africa. Tax cuts brought in greater, not less total revenue. International trade agreements created more, not fewer, jobs. Security measures at home, and losses suffered by terrorists abroad, in part explain the absence of a second 9/11.

And drilling in ANWR and off the coasts and building more nuclear power plants, refineries, and clean coal plants -- if the Congress would only approve -- could provide a short-term mitigation of energy prices until we reach a new generation of clean-burning and renewable fuels.

George Bush could learn from "Give 'em Hell, Harry." A disliked Truman never went silent into the night, but defended his record until the very end -- and was ultimately rewarded for it.

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About The Author
Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a recipient of the 2007 National Humanities Medal.

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Legacy?
Mr. Hanson is mostly correct in this assessment of Mr. Bush's presidential career. While Bush has made some bad decisions, he has also done a number of good things. His most egregious error was to expect that the Democrats in DC would actually work with him toward the greater good, as he had experienced in Texas. He foolishly never changed his political mindset once in DC and this has been a drag on everything he has tried to do.

The Bush administration also has been abysmally inept at communication. Even when doing, or even attempting, good things this bunch manages to sound like a little kid making apoligies for something.

As for the Bush legacy, only time will tell. I suspect, however, that he will look a lot better in retrospect than he does now. Some of his worst critics will be rated as the bottom feeders they are.

Where does TH get these guys?
"Tax cuts brought in greater, not less total revenue."
When compared to the year before but not compared to what the revenue would have been without the cuts.

"International trade agreements created more, not fewer, jobs."
But not as many jobs as would have been created without those agreements.

"And drilling in ANWR and off the coasts and building more nuclear power plants, refineries, and clean coal plants -- if the Congress would only approve -- could provide a short-term mitigation of energy prices until we reach a new generation of clean-burning and renewable fuels."
If approval to drill in ANWR was given tomorrow it would take 15 years before any of that oil would make it to our fuel tanks. I am not against drilling anywhere and everywhere we can but to say it will provide a "SHORT TERM MITIGATION" to our dependance on foreign oil is simply not true.

It won't surprise me at all if some sort of "disaster" occurs just prior to the November election and Bush cancels it. Bush has put out 2 presidential directives (HSPD 20 and NSPD 51) which gives him the authority to declare a national emergency (and Bush alone can determine what constitutes a nation emergency) and take control of all federal, state, local and tribal governments. These presidential directives also give Bush the power to take over any private business or asset he chooses. All without any congressional approval or oversight. Check out this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3dAnSMzUlo&feature=related

Former_Rep_Never_a_Dem
Would have been, I wish, and if; the favorite words of the Commiecrats and you are repeating them. You shouod change your handle to Dem operative posing as a former Republican.

The problem with the Bush
presidency has been that he has tried to be ALL things to ALL people and he has wound up losing the base and being NO things to all people. The elites in the party, who appear to be all ex-Democrats, think that by continuing socialist Dem ways in the Republican Party the Dems will support them. They are crazy, the only thing they have succeeded in is alienating the base. As it says in another column today, they are broke and it is because their ideology is broke.

Look at the Bush and Republican record. The only thing we can say he has done right was the tax cuts and they were only temporary. They had a majority but because of the RINOs they could not use it. The tax cuts barely were passed as a temporary measure, energy policy was Dem-Lite with no new drilling, and they did pass all kinds of social programs that the Dems then turned around and complained were not social enough.

The party crows about Bush’s appointments to the court but so far there has been little evidence that they are going to be the great trend revisers that they have been touted as. We had a chance to reverse the courts by appointing real conservative judges but the Gang of 14 killed that option.

Just think about this; if the terrorists had not brought about 9-11, what kinf of presidency would Bush have had? His first action was “reaching across the isle” to Ted the swimmer for NCLB.

Cancel the election
Do you have any idea how long this 'conspiracy' of canceling the upcoming election has been propagated?

I personally heard this nonsense after Ronald Reagan's second term was nearing its end. I heard this same nonsense when Clinton was nearing the end of his second term. Now, here comes the end of Bush's second term and it is being repeated.

This is kook conspiracy rumor number 47. Stop reading this crud and get a library card.

Boutte, the Great Enobler
Your opinions on civil rights and integration are anathema to everything that is great and powerful about the American ideal.

"Truman was an ignorant..." I will concede your expertise on all matters of ignorance. You've obviously had plenty of practice through self-reflection.

I would say your analysis of "...the disastrous Civil Right experiment, whose long-term consequences we now see tearing the Union apart on racial lines" might be just a wee bit over the top.

Surely even you would concede we have at least marginally improved race relations since the Civil War days?

Boutte -
A Great example of an articulate bigoted moron!!!

one point of agreement
I actually agree with Hanson that Bush should hold more press conferences and get more of the focus of this coming election on himself. But then I hoping Obama wins.

The list of Bush's successes is particularly amusing when you consider what kind of a case Hanson could make if he was using the Clinton numbers instead of the Bush numbers. Are there any statistics that Hanson cites to show Bush's success that was not significantly better over Clinton's term?

And Hanson apparently doesn't recognize that appraisal of the Clinton years has benefitted from the comparison to his Republican successor. It is only in Hanson's warped mind that people are saying that the peace and prosperity of the '90s was overrated, we need more of this war and .6% growth.

VDH has bad info on the economy
See http://www.shadowstats.com for information explaining how statistics like unemployment and GDP are calcuated incorrectly now and how the government changed the "rules" to show a rosier picture than really exists.

I'm surprised VDH hasn't looked beyond numbers provided by government.

No one should feel sorry for Bush
The only reason why an ultra-liberal like Obama now has a 60% (according to Intrade) chance of being our next President, is that Bush has totally wrecked the GOP brand.

He has associated the GOP with endless war and economic slowdowns. An economic slowdown that appears in the final year of Bush's second term is entirely his responsibility.

Even worse, he has associated the GOP with an aura of total arrogance. He acts like he can send Americans off to war, year after year, without caring whether the American people approve of the action or not. Ever since 9-11 there has been this attitude from the Bushies that once a President gets elected, he has a blank check to do any damned thing he wants to anywhere in the world with no oversight or checks and balances from Congress or the Supreme Court.

And that's why Obama has his shot at the Presidency.

Parker
It was Nixon that was going to survive Watergate by canceling the 1976 elections.

Oops! I mean the plan was to have Nixon resign so Gerald Ford would appoint Nelson Rockefeller Veep before (a) being impeached and removed (b) resigning, (c) being assasinated or (d)suffering a mysterious incapacitation that would let
Rockefeller cancel all elections for evermore
and rule the world via Henry Kssinger as head of
the Council on Foreign Relations or was that Brezenski as regent of the Trilateral Commission?

Read all about it in my magnificent new essay:
"Protocols of the Elders of Birch" .

Gloom and Doom
Back in the Reagan era, when all the doomsayers
were moving from the lunatic fringe into the mainstream media and Democrat party, the late Joseph Alsop put things succinctly. He said:

"Anybody that wishes to win, politically, by having his country suffer should be taken to the nearest whipping post."

The Alsops were liberal Democrat gentlemen. That
phrase has now become an oxymoron, more is the pity. Trace why it has so become and you may find out what truly threatens us.

just a reminder
MINIMUM casualty estimates - (troops and civilians included) if allied forces had invaded Japan to end WWII was 500,000 people. In August 1945 Churchill Stalin and Truman met at Pottsdam in Germany where Truman issued a warning to Japan that if they did NOT surrender the most terrible weapon the world had ever seen would be used on them. Even after the first bomb they REFUSED to surrender.

(Audi and all other Catholics - There were people praying the Rosary near ground zero in Hiroshima. They were spared.)

In December 1937 when Japan was at war with China the Japs invaded the seacoast city of Nanking. Over the next 4 months until March 1938 they engaged in the systematic slaughter of AT LEAST 260,000 helpless civilians. Estimates run as high as 430,000.

Source - The Rape of Nanking, The Forgotten Holocaust of WWII, by Iris Chang, 1997

Scroll right past
a boutte post.

Not worth reading.

Not worth answering.

oneeye
You are so right. Boutte has made up his mind. There is no point confusing him with facts, even the obvious ones like ATOMIC bomb, not NUCLEAR.

Boutte
In your first sentence you managed to stop me from having any interest in anything else you may have said. Saying that Truman gave up moral capital by dropping the bombs represents ignorance on a level that is staggering.

What would have happened if we didn't drop the bombs?

Truman's polls were 22% when Ike won
Now they want to put Truman on Mt. Rushmore.

Pres. polls often reflect the latest op ed page in the NYSlimes.

People get such bad news constantly that they always think the world is coming to an end.

Bush has given us historically high tax revenues from the tax cuts, also historically low deficits.

Bush has focused education on actual academic achievement with No Child Left Behind, even tho' the teachers' unions hate it.

Bush helped seniors with pres. drugs for Medicare, altho' the costs may prove problems.

Bush barnstormed the US after his 2004 re-election to try to get people interested in fixng Soc. Sec. and no one listened.

Bush sees Iraq as a stable country in the center of the Middle East with at least a semi-dem. gov't. The US has achieved this feat with 150,000 troops among 24,000,000 Iraqis. A miracle. But you won't hear it anywhere but from me.

Bush did not veto enough in his first term, but the Dem. Congress, which seems moribund, has not been able to get around him since 2006.

I don't agree with the *stimulus* package because I think it will prob. cost as much to send the checks as their cost, but he needs a bone to throw to the Reps. who defeated themselves in 2006 by governing like Dems. while they controlled the power.

Legacy, shmegacy
Bush should stump for a more accurate, less pessimistic view of the economy, and for a more accurate view of the global situation and our place and actions in it, because that would constitute good leadership.

There is not much he can do about his "legacy," as a matter of perception. He has disappointed a wide variety of constituencies; but on the other hand, polls and poll questions are asinine, and are not in themselves a comprehensive or useful reflection on the validity of what he has done.

Bush has never been one to play to the polls, but neither is it useful to be effectively silent on what his political opponents in government and the media are trying to paint as great crises and failures. One of McCain's key weaknesses is that he DOES play to what he thinks the people and the self-appointed critics are thinking -- accepting their evaluation of "reality," and busily tap-dancing around it, instead of communicating the truth.

We should thank God for today's alternative media, made possible through radio, cable, and the internet. Without them, we would literally have no one trying to get the truth out. It looks from here as if Bush has given up, and I don't hear any other key political voices doing it.

Bush and the Wimp Factor
Both Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. have never found it in themselves to be fighters. Bush Sr. folded on his no new tax pledge, and failed to finish the first Iraq war when he had the chance. In the election of 1992, he was beaten like a rented mule. He campaigned like he had better things to do then run for presdient again. He had no passion or fire and certainly let down a lot of GOP faithful. Dubya's presidency was run the same way. In key issues, like energy, the war in Iraq, taxes, and governemnt spending, Bush refused to take a winning, traditional, conservative stance and make that case directly to the American people. All he was able to manage was a press conference now and then in the Rose Garden. Reagan was never afaid to go on TV to make his case. Against a Democrat majority in Congress led by Tip O' Neil, Reagan succeeded in moving his conservative ideas. With a GOP majority, Bush passed ! a couple of measley tax bills which are going to expire in a couple of years and that's it. He presided over a real Wall Street boom, a successful war on terror, and a strong, growing economy and yet he sought to sqaunder the goodwill he still held with many conservatives and GOP members. His \"new tone\" in Washington allowed him, his ideas, and those who supported him to be kicked around without fighting back. Don\'t count on W. going out with a bang. He will slink out of D.C.and retire to Texas, much like another former President from Texas did 40 years ago

Hanson's bad advice
I don't think George Bush should take his record out on the campaign trail at all, unless he wants to finish off the Republican party's chances in the 2008 election.

More than 70% of the public is not interested in hearing him justify the Iraq war again. Conservatives like me don't want any saber rattling against Iran--we don't trust the arguments nor the "evidence" used to justify them.

People like me don't like the "korea" model for out future policy toward Iraq (stay the course for a hundred years). We want a Vietnam Model in Iraq: We will leave, and when we leave we will really go!

We do not believe dismantling the inheritance of Goldwater and Reagan and replacing it with a neo-Rockefeller party apparatus has been a good thing, either.

We do not want to hear anything about free trade or more taxcuts.

If George Bush wants to remind us he appointed Roberts and Aliota, that is ok. Otherwise, just stay in the White House out of sight and sound. He has destroyed the conservative renaissance of the Republican party and helped the media give us a choice between WWII McCain and marxist Obama for President in 2008.

I've seen more...
... of the old frat boy in the past year than I did in the first seven. I wish him well, think he did an admirable job, and am sure history will vindicate him. I figure he knows that, too.

Rob
Where's my evidence? Basic math.

"Tax revenues during the Bush years were higher than any year of Clinton or Bush" Name one year since the depression that tax revenues have NOT increased over the previous year.

"The problem is they've been saying that for 15 years, rather than doing it." I totally agree.

"If you have a faster solution, present it. All of them are farther off in the future." I never claimed there was a faster solutio. I merely pointed out that to claim that congressional approval to drill of our coast and in ANWR will provide relief from our dependance on foreign oil in a "short term" is not an accurate statement. I don't consider 15 years to be a "short term". Like I wrote above I agree that the delay in drilling has been a huge mistake. I wish approval to drill would come tomorrow because I agree that, barring a technological break-through, all other realistic options will take longer than 15 years.

Improvements compared to rock bottom
Dear Mr. Hanson,

I agree that Bush should stand up more against his critics but I don’t think you should try to make it sound that the critics have little justification in their criticisms. The facts in the article about the improvements in the past couple-months doesn’t come close to leveling out the decline our nation has had in the previous seven years.
The decline in foreclosure and unemployment rates along with the other improvement in the past few months doesn’t impress me because they are being compared to the previous, poor rates of 2007. When foreclosures and debt hit all time highs, it’s not hard to improve from rock bottom. All Bush could do in the past quarter is improve after seven years of declining to rock bottom. Now if these rates were compared to Clinton’s or Bush Senior’s rates then you would have a case to say that the critics are unjustified in their antics. Though comparing the rates to Bush’s own previous rates doesn’t hold too much water for me.
Also if Bush had done a better job in the beginning he wouldn’t have to face this snow balling effect of criticism. The media has been critiquing Bush since day one and until lately he’s done little to prove them wrong. All the media can see now is his mistakes not his achievements because of his poor start. It’s like on a football team when you see your new wide receiver drop his first six passes. You ignore that he catches the next 14 out of 16 because every time he drops one pass you remember his dropped passes in the beginning. Unfortunately for Bush and all other people who have made mistakes in the beginning, you can never make a second first impression.
All in all, I feel the critics are justified in their criticisms because three months of improvement isn’t good enough to cover up seven years of decline.
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