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Thursday, October 25, 2007
Victor Davis Hanson :: Townhall.com Columnist
So Who's Afraid of an Iranian Bomb?
by Victor Davis Hanson
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At first glance, it would seem a straightforward thing to stop a relatively weak but volatile Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb. It would also seem to be something a concerned world community would be actively working to do.

After all, the Sunni Arab states surrounding Iran don’t want a Shiite nuclear power on their borders.

Europe, which isn’t all that far from Tehran and lacks a missile-defense shield, certainly doesn’t want to be in range of Iran’s missiles.

Israel can’t tolerate an Iranian theocracy both promising to wipe it off the map and then brazenly obtaining the means to do so.

The Russians and the Chinese, both already concerned about India, Pakistan and North Korea, don’t need another rival Asian nuclear power on their borders.

And the United States, already worried about Iranian threats to Israel and involved in daily military battles in Iraq with pro-Iranian agents and terrorists armed with Iranian-imported weapons, doesn’t want a nuclear Iran expanding its Persian Gulf influence.

But in truth, most players don’t care enough to stop Iran from getting the bomb, or apparently don’t think it’s worth the effort and cost. Some may even see some advantages to a nuclear Iran.

The Arab Gulf monarchies, for example, know that their enormous dollar reserves would likely buy them some reprieve from a nuclear Iran, or at least bring in the U.S. Navy to offer them deterrence from attack.

Meanwhile, the current tension and ongoing fear of disruption in the Persian Gulf sends billions in windfall oil profits the Gulf states’ way.

Leaders of Arab states also have to fear their own populations’ reactions to any action taken against Islamic Iran. Despite his religious Shiite background, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is far more popular among Sunni populations in the Gulf than George Bush — and even perhaps more popular than the autocratic Arab thugs and dictators who run most of the Middle East.

The European Union, like the Arab states, believes as a last resort that its economic clout and deft diplomats can always work out some sort of arrangement with Tehran’s clerics, who, after all, need customers to buy their high-priced oil.

So most in Europe bristle at French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s warnings about an impending war to stop an Iranian bomb. Instead, they feel it’s an American problem to organize global containment of Iran.

Israel also has reason to fear a war with Iran. If Israel were to attack Tehran, it could find itself in three instantaneous wars — and be hit with thousands of missiles from the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. That shower would make last year’s Hezbollah barrage seem like child’s play.

In Russia, Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy is nursed on grievances about a lost empire, America as the sole superpower and the independence of cocky former Soviet republics. In the thinking of oil-exporting Russia, anything that causes America to squirm and world oil prices to soar is a win/win situation. That’s why Russia supplies Iran with its reactor technology and stirs the nuclear pot.

China, like Russia, is a large nuclear power and doesn’t fear all that much Iranian missiles that it thinks are more likely to be pointed westward anyway. True, it would like calm in the Gulf to ensure safe oil supplies, but thinks it still could do business with a nuclear Iran.

And, as in the case of Russia, anything that bothers the United States can’t be all that bad for Beijing. While Ahmadinejad ties the U.S. down in the Middle East, China thinks it will have more of a free hand to expand its influence in the Pacific.

Then there’s the complacent situation here at home. After Afghanistan and Iraq, most Americans don’t feel we’re up to a third war. Some point to nuclear Pakistan and believe we could likewise live with Iran having the bomb.

A few on the left even feel that a nuclear Iran would remind us of our own limitations in imposing our will and influence abroad. They belittle the current warnings of George Bush and Dick Cheney about Iran’s nuclear program, shrugging that the two used to say similar things about Saddam and his nonexistent arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.

Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world, represented in the U.N.’s General Assembly, feels that a nuclear Iran offers comeuppance to a haughty United States, Israel and Europe without threatening anyone else.

Ahmadinejad may be viewed across the globe as a dangerous religious nut. But to many, he, like Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, also represents an anti-capitalist, anti-globalization popular front against America and therefore shouldn’t be ostracized.

So who wants a nuclear Iran?

No one and everyone.

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About The Author
Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a recipient of the 2007 National Humanities Medal.

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Dolly, living in a dream world
A madman acquires nuclear weapons. He hates pretty much everyone in the world. First, he takes out Israel because they're close and he's been threatening to do it for a long time. The rest of the world does nothing because "it's not our problem" just as they did nothing to prevent him getting nuclear weapons.

The radiation enters the world wide climatic circulation and now you're the one taking idoine supplements. It's in the food, it's in the water, it's in the air we breath. And, it makes it darn hard to pump oil from Saudia Arabia and the Tercel States. The global economy drags to a virtual standstill. The weather goes screwy because of the radiation reducing the efficacy of the sun's penetration into our atmosphere. World-wide economic depression ensues.

But, hey, we (the US) survived, so that's all that's important. Then the day comes when a suitcase nuke goes off in a major US city or three. Oh-oh! Now it really is our problem. We can retaliate, but that doesn't save US lives and it doesn't un-irradiate our crops and land.

Have you never heard the saying that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of retaliation (er, cure)? Deal with a problem when it's small and you have a chance of containing it. Deal with it when it's leaped out of the box and good luck. Iran is about to leap out of the box. Once they let the genie out of the bottle, good luck putting it back in.

And, again, he's an unmedicated nutjob. Good sense says you don't let him have access to nuclear weapons. He WILL use them!

The Nerve!
Listen up here! Israel is a real country. They are not subsidized by anyone except themselves and people who think that they have created a vibrant country in the middle of a desert.

Before you start jumping my posterior:
Irish Catholic,married 35 years to the Jewish
boy. Meanest thing he ever did was die on me.
His lovely mother is still alive and was an Auschwitz survivor. My splendid Father-in-law was a Polish partisan.
Thanks to our 11% (and sinking) congress rating!
You are asking Israel to fight the war on terrorism alone.
They have shown remarkble restraint so far.

Just try not to get all hissy when they bomb these monsters back to the Stone Age and sow the groud with salt.

please
>No biggie. A few hundred K, maybe a million people incinerated, nuclear fallout, it's all good.<

Compare that to the number of posts begging for the nuclear annahilation of Iran in these forums.
I think you'd find the percentages staggering.

Liberal "compassion" on display
Dolly Llama: "And even if they did nuke Israel, the lasting effects wouldn't be that much more catastrophic than the end of WWII. Three or four bombs would pretty much take care of that war, and the fallout wouldn't even reach us."

No biggie. A few hundred K, maybe a million people incinerated, nuclear fallout, it's all good.

Folks
This was just a drive bye. Please all have a great evening and be well

Nick in Austin
Before I read your follow-up post, I was about to excoriate you for the sentence,

> Sure, they are the biggest supporters of terror in the world, but they wouldn't try to harm the US.<

But you redeemed yourself with the qualification,

> What if Iran passes nukes to terrorists who use it on Saudi Arabia, UAE, et al? How are we gonna feed 300 million Americans and forty million Mexicans without oil?<

You're admitting that Iran can't harm us in a direct way, but they can harm us by disrupting the flow of oil in the Persian Gulf. Of course, they could do that now, or any time in the past decade or so if they thought they could actually live through the next day.

There's only one way Iran is a threat to the US at this point; an alliance with Russia and/or China. Given the visit by Putin to Tehran last week, the former is not merely totally hypothetical. And, as Hansen points out, China isn't exactly upset if the US is militarily weakened, although they depend heavily on the US market for their manufactured goods.

The world is a dangerous place. We can't afford to have a leader who is incapable of spelling out a coherent message, not only to this nation, but the world.
Unfortunately, I don't see that person in the 2008 candidates from either party.



Nick in Austin
"Latest news is that North Korea is out of the nuke business in exchange for all kinds of payola. I suspect China had a hand in that. "

They are "supposedly" out of the production business they destroyed zero of their weapons under the agreement

Not my understanding, Hal
Latest news is that North Korea is out of the nuke business in exchange for all kinds of payola. I suspect China had a hand in that.

Nick in Austin
"is the real world, lefty. "

Nick do you have ANY idea at all about what your saying? any?

Unbridled growth got us here, and Hillary wants to continue it by adding 100 million new democratic voters. We'll never recover.


Nick in Austin
"Right. They would never give nuclear weapons to a terrorist. Sure, they are the biggest supporters of terror in the world, but they wouldn't try to harm the US. "

Poor Nick forgot about NK that may have had at most three nukes. It now has over 10 and is still making more. Would they share those nukes? You bet. Iran has NO nukes. Why have you forgotten North Korea? They fell off your talking points? Just wondering. Why Iran with no nukes and you ignore NK which is proven to share?

VArious (continued)
JPH:
"What about Pakistan?"

I asked that same question to a top security expert when he appeared at BookPeople three or four years ago. He said that almost immediately after 9-11, the US govt worked out a deal to help Pakistan secure its nukes. I suspect Musharif's precarious situation is one reason we want troops in the region. They have a hundred nukes, and you can bet Bush and Bin Laden have their eyes on them.

Nuclear weapons are bad news in the hands of Islamofascists. As president, you cannot sit around and hope for the best. We are the target, here. And there are alot of ways our overpopulated nation can be hurt (even before Hillary adds another 100 million Mexicans). What if Iran passes nukes to terrorists who use it on Saudi Arabia, UAE, et al? How are we gonna feed 300 million Americans and forty million Mexicans without oil? Venuzuela? Ha Ha. Time to wake up. Liberals are always falling back on the moral high ground. THis is the real world, lefty.

Unbridled growth got us here, and Hillary wants to continue it by adding 100 million new democratic voters. We'll never recover.

Again I ask, what did Bush tell Hillary and Oscar Obama that has them backtracking by four years on their promise to pull out of Iraq? At least they had the good sense to listen (apparently). Maybe we can send Nine Percent Nancy back to Syria.

VArious
Paola:
"Iran is no threat."

Right. They would never give nuclear weapons to a terrorist. Sure, they are the biggest supporters of terror in the world, but they wouldn't try to harm the US.

MTrain:
"Protecting our borders would have stopped 9-11"

So what. We took out Iraq and Afghanistan to teach Iran, Syria, N. Korea, Libya that they can't harbor terrorists. We cannot allow these terror regimes to harbor terrorists, where, in freedom, they can plot other 9-11s or far worse. Iran cannot be allowed to have nukes, because next will come long range missile development - or they'll just pass a few to terrorists with access to an oil barge (for example).

Libya and North Korea got the message. Iraq and Afghanistan no longer harbor terrorists with impunity, and terrorists will not be putting dirty bombs together there under a state umbrella. Iran is weighing its options.

Someday maybe we will have a democratic middle east with no desire to have nukes. Someone had to do something.




Crying wolf
This is what happens when you cry wolf once too often.

Bush said we had to "lead a coalition to disarm" Saddam's WMD. Then it turned out there weren't any.

Then Bush said that it was unacceptable for North Korea to have nukes. Then they test-fired one, Bush accepted it, continued negotiations and nothing much happened to North Korea.

Now Bush says Iran is getting nukes and it's unacceptable for Iran to have nukes. As you can see, "we've been through this movie before"--TWICE.

So before we take Bush's word on anything again, how about a little bi-partisan sanity check? Bush should invite either Hillary or Joe Biden to the White House, and show all his cards: Show the intel evidence we have about Iran's nuclear capability, explain why Iran is a threat, and put Hillary and/or Joe Biden on the line to explain what THEIR attitude is about the Iran threat. Not commit to go to war, but be willing to agree in broad brush strokes that Bush is right about the threat this time.

If they don't believe Bush, then Bush should do nothing about Iran right now. If Bush started yet another war without public support, this country could have a nervous breakdown. And, of course, the Democrats would win in a landslide, not good either.

Where?
>There have been reports in the past the iranians would sacrifice their country if they could eliminate israel.<

NewsMax? WorldNetDaily?

And who do you mean by the Iranians?
Ahmadinejad?
Ayatollah Ali Khoemeni?

That's really the nuts and bolts of the issue-
does Iran, or leading elements of Iran's current leadership, have a death wish? While Iran may strut its feathers thinking the US is unwilling to have a ground war at this time, I'm sure they have no doubts that in a nuclear exchange of any kind they realize that no amount of screaming "Allah Akbar" will keep them from re-living the glory days of Mohammed's original existence, because their nation will resemble the 7th century.

paolo
the concern is that these bomba can be reduced in size and transported to other countries by courier. I don' want to see any of our citizens killed by iranian beligerance. But as muslims believe it is acceptable to lie to non-believers there is nothing reassuring when they talk about destroyiong the west. If they were using the billions to feed and house their own people rather than put it in to nuclear research that some experrets believe is leading to developement of nuclear weapons, shou;ldn't we be concerned. There have been reports in the past the iranians would sacrifice their country if they could eliminate israel. Better to assume they are a danger than act as though the represent no threat whatsoever

Iran is no threat
V. D. Hanson starts by repeating the old myth--long since debunked--that Ahmadi-Nejad said he wanted to "wipe Israel off the map."

If V.D. is a competent academic at all, he already knows this, which means he is quite willing to keep repeating a known lie to advance his case.

Iran is no threat to America or to Europe. Iran's GNP ranks about the same as Norway's, with the difference that they have about ten times as many mouths to feed with the same income.

Iran has a poorly equipped military that was barely able to fight Iraq--a nation with a third its population and territory--to a draw in the 1980's. The US military, on the other hand, smashed the Iraqi military in roughly three weeks.

Iran has not invaded another country since the end of the 18th century. For those of you educated in public schools, that's about when our country was founded.

Iran has no nuclear weapons capability, and has repeatedly stated it has no desire to acquire nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which means it is subject to intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, all of which have turned up exactly ZERO evidence of a nuclear weapons program.

To answer the headline, "So Who's Afraid of an Iranian Bomb?": No one who has the facts is afraid of such a thing.

Proxy War
Chicom is the boss of all the rogue regimes - Saddam's Iraq, N. Korea, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, Burma. The Soviet Union was its big brother but Russia is a 'small' brother now.

“Unlike the Nazis or the Soviets eager to use its own military power, the Regime has been covertly waging “unrestricted warfare” of terror, economy and media by proxy to wear down the will of the last Christian power on earth, in preparation for the final conflict.

The Soviets were openly called “the Evil Empire” by the USA, but the Regime had its way to be named as “strategic partners” instead. The Soviets would be challenged directly for any trouble coming from its allies, but the Regime could get around and play the role of a “mediator” for crises caused by its proxies, once named as “the axis of evil” immediately after the worst attack on American soil.”

Above is a quote from the article “Behold, 666 is here”. Details are available at
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/chow051007.htm

Robert is right
but about the wrong thing.

"The Iranians have no national desire to do a national jihad that is a fiction of the far right."

I agree. So... (begin sarcasm) when they have a national VOTE on whether to use nukes the decision will be negative, and the world will be safe! Hurray!

Citizen Carrier: God bless and watch your @ss!

SandMan
So you want us to bomb Iran, and what about Pakistan if it deteriorates further. What about Turkey? They are threatening to invade Iraq. Come on, you have to make some distinctions about who is a serious threat, who is blustering and who is acting in legitimate self interest. Or do you want to attack anyone who makes a stupid statements? I suppose you think they are all the same.

Do you not recognize that the current policy has contributed to the mess in the Middle East? After all, by invading Iraq we have made Iran into the biggest player in the Middle East. Turkey is also now angry at us. Our policy in the Middle East is like a bull in a China shop. We need to get some adults in charge of policy instead of Bush,Cheney and their crowd who don't seem to know anything about the Middle East or how to conduct a foreign policy.

If you cannot distinguish between the policies of Khatami and his predecesors or Ahmadinejad then you have no business posting on the topic.

The FACTS re: “capt” ROBERT.

This guy’s been a plague on TH for months now, claiming to be the following: A US Navy Captain, both a military test pilot, and civilian test pilot; (make up your mind Robert), a US Border Patrol helicopter pilot, a designated FAA flight examiner, a college professor, , a former vice cop, a columnist for the National Review, and a government consultant on Mideast affairs. WOW! Are we ever impressed! Here’s the truth about Robert. He’s a former Navy enlisted man, (an avionics tech), and frustrated wannabe Naval Aviator, who now lives in a sad fantasy world on TH. Note that he posts on almost every TH; often on several blogs. He spends many hours a day on TH, judging from the frequency of his posts. But I must give this delusional psychotic credit. He’s smart and skilled at Google searching for info to impress people with BS. He does this frequently on TH. Another of his tactics is to give letter grades, mostly to those he disagrees with. So if your get an F - , you know you’re on the correct side of the argument and making him look bad. He shows his true colors when ever he gets shot down in flames, which is every time he posts. He becomes extremely defensive and argumentative. But when confronted with hard questions likely to expose him as a fraud, he’s stated on previous posts: “I don’t answer questions”. If he didn’t spend so much time on TH attempting to defend himself from overwhelming criticism, he might have some credibility. But if you review his posts over the past weeks, it’s painfully obvious that no mature adult behaves this way. And certainly no one with his “claimed” credentials would have the time to waste or the inclination to put up with the abuse this “Ignoranus” constantly receives. I’d suggest he GET A LIFE. But we all know he won’t. This is all he has. Very sad.

The Ballad of "capt" Robert.

(sung to the tune of the Great Pretender)
======================================
Oh yes, Im the great bloviator
Pretending that I know it all
My need is such I BS too much
Im lonely but no one can tell

Oh yes, Im the great bloviator
Adrift in a mental world of my own
I play the game but to my real shame
Hal left me to dream all alone

Too real is this feeling of a mental end
Too real when my brain cant comprehend

Oh, yes, Im the great bloviator
Just laughing and gay like a fool
I seem to be what Im not, you see
Jet jock, helo guy, professor, so cool
Pretending that I know it all

Too real is this feeling of make believe
Too real when I feel when my brain cant conceive

Oh, yes, Im the great bloviator
Just laughing and gay like a tool
I seem to be what Im not, you see
I stopped using my brain like a fool
Pretending that I know it all


Composer - unknown

bfred
The United States has never captured any Iranian with arms. There were 136 foreign detainees. There are 24,000 Iraqi ones. And the 136 contain no Iranians at all. 45% of them, earlier in the summer, were Saudis. There is no proof of any actual Iranian military activity inside Iraq. There are the MEK, who like Chalabi, would tell us anything we wanted to hear.

Nick in Austin
Yes, because comparing the war in Iraq to 9/11 hasn't been debunked enough, you know have to compare this war to the one against the Nazis.

Do you read history? And by protecting the borders we most certainly could have stopped 9/11. I consider deportation and finding people who have over stayed their Visas and kicking them out protecting our borders. So now we are over there fighting, I ask you this, weren't the terrorist (from Saudi Arabia no less) already in this country? What good would it have done to be in Iraq before 9/11? Think people. And what are these wars going to do to stop things like Oklahoma City?

But that is fine, go on blindly supporting W because he is making us "feel" safe. Having our military in Iraq, Iran and 128 other counrties make much more sense than having them patrol our borders and ports.

Sandman
Iran is obviously a player to take seriously, only there are bigger fish to fry. Pakistan needs our attention, not militarily necessarily but diplomatically, in a huge way. The thing to remember about Iran is that the same people who sold us about Iraq are telling us about Iran. Lets not be burned twice, I don't think we can take it.

Umm, JPH?
"We need to let them know that we recognize their self interests and that, as long as they do not threaten others, we can work with them."

I assume you do not include arming and training combatants in Iraq or threatening to wipe Israel off the map in this definition? Iran funds and supplies terrorists today - why would we ever consider it having nuclear weapons a stabilizing standoff?

I'm going to give Ahmadinejad your address and tell him you're gay.

Willful blindness
Anyone who cannot acknowledge the threat posed by Iran is willfully blind, dangerously naive, or in active collusion with the self-identified enemies of this country. Contrary to what JPH claims, there has never been a time during the past 28 years that the official position of Iran has been anything other than a general call for our destruction, and every action taken on their part has been in calculated furtherance of that objective.

JPH: 4:38
No doubt Neville Chamberlain was a nuanced diplomat.

"Nuance" where Iran's conduct is concerned is laughably naive in that way so beloved of self-styled leftist citizens of the world. It is also a prescription for peril.

Please tell me you were joking when you suggested that Khatami is/was a liberal with whom the West could deal in good faith. If Khatami is "liberal," it is only by virtue of comparison in the way that Brezhnev appeared liberal in comparison to Stalin.

dyerje
I am not questioning That Iran wants nuclear capability. I am as concerned as anyone about it and would like to sss that threat diminished. My point is that our attempt at bullying them is increasing the likelihood of the very things we fear. After all we did get some agreement from North Korea short of bombing them.

Furthermore, there is another place where the likelihood of what you describe is more likely. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, has sold the technology to others, and has military people who are apparently sympathetic to Al Qaida. In general, our over heated rhetoric regarding "Islamofacism" is counter productive. We cannot fight the entire Muslim world. We need to let them know that we recognize their self interests and that, as long as they do not threaten others, we can work with them. Our policy in the Middle East for a long time has been highly non productive. In addition to the problems in Pakistan, Turkey is moving away from us. Threats to bomb Iran are likely to make all of these situations worse.

dyerje
OK But my point still stands. We have unnessarily pushed them into an avvesarial position. In the 1990's had had a larger and better educated middle class than elsewhere in the Middle East and was definitely interested in moderating some of its 1980 positions. While the clergy were clearly holding that back, Khatami, who was an advocate of that, had the support of much of the population. Ahmadinejad does not have that support. If we persist in being confrontational with them we increase the likelihood of a more conservative leadership after Ahmadinejad and are unlikely to get what we want. Resisting the U.S. will become an increasingly popular position.

Reality checks
Iran declared war on the United States in 1979 when they stormed our embassy in Tehran. Anyone thinking that wasn't a declaration of war has never studied political science. For some stupid reason we refused to do anything about it then, so now we have one of the student/kidnappers in charge of the country.

Assured Destruction only works as a deterrent if the guy with his finger on the button is sane. I work in the mental health field. We all here (even the raving liberals) think Ahmadinajad is a schizophrenic with antisocial personality disorder. That's the last sort of unmedicated MH patient you want with his finger on a nuclear button. He won't be deterred by consequences.

Dolly -- I think your namesake would commit suicide if he knew that someone using his title feels the way you do about Israel. You do realize that it's a populated country, don't you?

Nuclear fall-out, folks, can really travel. I live in Alaska and they picked up radioactive isotopes from Chernobyl in Denali Park, so please let go of the fantasy that what happens in the Middle East can't possibly affect us in the United States. Anybody remember the really bad weather we had after Mt. Penatubo blew up? What happens in the ME will affect food production worldwide and you cannot easily predict where the radiation will end up.

The best choice we have is to take out Iran's weapons-making ability before they get off the ground using tactical weapons. No nukes required and the problem is at least set back a few decades, maybe giving us time to come up with a real solution.

JPH Response 4
I can respect the logic of an argument that it really doesn't matter if Iran is both able and willing to supply small amounts of enriched uranium to terrorists, even if I don't agree with that.

What I have no respect for is people who blather on making counterarguments against straw men. No one thinks Iran's government is going to attack the United States with military-style nuclear weapons -- or that Iran is going to get into a MAD stand-off with the US. The concern is the nearest imminent possibility -- that Iran could supply terrorists -- and the next-nearest, that Iran could use nukes on ballistic missiles to intimidate its neighbors, and their neighbors in Europe and Asia.

JPH Response 3
To look at the web today, you would get the erroneous impression that concern about an Iranian nuke program is something trumped up by Bush since 2001. This is not the case. Western nations have been concerned about it since the 1990s, as we have watched Iran test new ballistic missiles; conduct major exercises that culminate in simulated closure of the Strait of Hormuz and missile launches at Israel and Europe; and acquire new-generation tanks, anti-air systems, fighters, submarines, mines, torpedoes, and guided missile patrol boats, from Russia and China.

Iran's intentions with nuclear weapons would not be to literally hold the US at risk from Iran. Iran isn't likely to have such a capability at any time in the next 20 years. The nuclear threat posed by Iran would be to nations in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. Notably, however, Iran would not need to achieve a high level of weapons design to be able to supply enriched uranium, in small amounts, to terrorists.

Iraq would not have needed to either. The popular perception that only a Soviet-style WMD program, with vast installations and stockpiles, is worth worrying about -- that perception needs to be refuted. US intelligence, of note, never thought Saddam had anything approaching that level of WMD inventory or sophistication.

SandMan
You say:

"What have we been hearing out of Iran since 1979? Death to America…America is the Great Satan…Down with U.S.A., etc, etc. Whether it’s the people in the street, the media, the mullahs, or the people in government, the refrain is and has been the same for the past 28 years – Death to America."

In fact they have not been saying that for the last 28 years. They elected Khatami in 1997 who was perceived as a liberal in favor of better relations with the U.S. They condemned the 9-11 attacks, offered to assist in rescuing downed pilots in Afghanistan and were willing to participate in a UN led force in Afghanistan. In return we labeled them as part of the "axis of evil."

When there is that kind of opening we should cultivate it rather than engage in bullying! Of all of the Middle Eastern countries, Iran was the most likely to dislike Al Qaida and assist us in the fight against them. They also hated Saddam. But in our rush to brand all Muslims as evil we pushed a potential ally into a more advesarial position. In making a successful foreign policy we must be nuanced and not just brand everyone in that part of the world as part of the evil we are fighting. Soon we won't have any allies left there.

JPH Response 2
The testimony of then-CIA Director John Deutch to Congress in 1996 summarizes the intelligence thinking of the time on Iran's potential nuclear development and overall military build-up:

"Iran continues to divert scarce economic resources to its military buildup and to flout accepted standards of international behavior. Tehran actively supports terrorism and political violence, opposes the Middle East peace process, and abuses human rights at home. Since 1989, Iran has murdered at least 48 regime opponents abroad, provided up to $100 million annually to the Lebanese Hizballah--a group responsible for the killing of over 250 Americans--and refused to repeal the religious judgment condemning British author Salman Rushdie to death."

"The nuclear weapons programs of several countries cause us great concern. For example, Iran is now developing its nuclear infrastructure and the means to hide nuclear weapons development. Cooperation with Russia and China -- even carried out legally under international safeguards -- could substantially aid Iran's nuclear weapons efforts. Iran remains years away from producing a nuclear weapon, but extensive foreign assistance could shorten the timeframe."

Link to Deutch's complete statement, from Feb 1996:

http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/1996_hr/s960222p.htm

NYT's first article on the 2000 revision of CIA's estimate on Iran's nukeweps program:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C04E6D61E3A F934A25752C0A9669C8B63

JPH Response 1
There are far too many citations on Iran's military and weapons programs from the 1990s to list them all. I have a more in-depth knowledge of intelligence assessments during that period than the average person because I was an active duty Naval intelligence officer until 2004.

Good sources are the CIA National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on Iran from 1989, 1993, 1995, and (Jan) 2001, all of which predate the Bush administration. NY Times noted in 2000 an announced revision of CIA's 1990s estimate that Iran did not yet have a functioning nuclear weapon -- CIA changed its estimate in 2000 to reflect the possibility that Iran already had one.

I can tell you I personally thought that that 2000 revision was unnecessarily optimistic for Iran's nuclear program at the time, and I think most in military intelligence would have agreed. But that may give you an understanding of the fact that there were serious estimates that Iran had already made substantial progress in developing a nuclear weapon, well before Bush's axis of evil speech.

You may or may not remember that Madeleine Albright's State Department designated the "axis of evil" nations as "rogue states" -- perhaps that was less confrontational? The Clinton administration played a significant role in getting China to back off on the sale of nuclear technology to Iran, in the mid-1990s (sales from China resumed by 1999), and expressed frequent concern over Russia's nuclear collaboration with Iran -- all due to the concern that Iran was developing nuclear weapons. This concern was enhanced by the fact that both China and Russia were selling major conventional weapon systems to Iran, and were aiding Iran in its development of ballistic missiles.

Hey MTrain
Just protect our borders, eh?

What did Bush tell (or show) Clinton and Obama that had them backtracking on their promise to pull out of Iraq?

WHat near catastrophe demonstrated to those two that a military presence in the middle east is necessary?

SHould we have just protected our borders against Hitler. The general concensus is that doing so would have been a fatal mistake - for us.

I wish it was so. I wish it was even possible to close the border. But I think the best defense against nuclear terrorism is a good offense. I suspect Bin Laden has more than once second guessed his 9-11 plot, forever dooming him to a life in a cave. I'll bet he still sleeps lightly, with nothing between him and the cave floor but a thin child bride.

I haven't heard anyone say "Attack!"
So the comments about people who consider Iran a threat being bloodthirsty warmongers is just more rhetorical name-calling. Does anyone honestly believe that Ahmadinejad would not use nuclear weapons to blackmail anyone who disagreed with him? I can hear him already: "Iran is a nuclear power! You must respect us now!" The forces we are currently fighting in Iraq are supplied by Iran, yet we should believe that Ahmadinejad is just some harmless eccentric?

Look, the Pakistan/A.Q. Khan episode demonstrated the danger of weak states posessing nuclear weapons technology. Each additional such state that adds nuclear weapons capability exponentially increases the risk that such weapons are either used or (more likely) are shared with third parties. It is not just that Iran might use the weapons itself, it is the track record of supplying American enemies and the (greater) risk of rogue government agents selling the technologies. This is the entire concept behind non-proliferation; otherwise why not just hand bombs out on the street?

From where I sit Bush is currently applying the right kind of pressure by designating the Quds force a terrorist organization (please tell me no one disputes that they are) and freezing business and banking transactions. These are non-military sanctions aimed at the influential upper class in Iran.

Death to America
What have we been hearing out of Iran since 1979? Death to America…America is the Great Satan…Down with U.S.A., etc, etc. Whether it’s the people in the street, the media, the mullahs, or the people in government, the refrain is and has been the same for the past 28 years – Death to America.

Given their proven track record of acting on their stated intention of worldwide jihad, I think it would be prudent to take them at their word when they say they would like to kill Americans. And when evidence strongly suggests they are nearing completion on their quest to develop nuclear weapons, it is simply a matter of admitting the obvious – that Iran has the will to do us serious harm, and it will shortly have the means to do so in a way that must have them watering at the mouth to acquire.

When that moment arrives, questions of who is to blame for the troubles of the world, and whether we tried hard enough to appease their wrath will become moot. Right or wrong, we will have to deal with them. Or we can just deal with them before we reach that point. When there is a mad dog running loose in your back yard where your children are playing, the time for arguing over who left the gate open is counterproductive, to say the least. If you are not grabbing a shotgun to remove the threat, you are too pathetic for words.

You leftists can caterwaul all you want about how crazy and mean the Bush Administration is if you want, but it isn’t going to make any difference. Iran will not be permitted to acquire the bomb.

Not to worry
Israel will not permit Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
They will act long before we do; they have no problem using preemptive strikes if they believe their survival is at stake.


This argument is pointless.

Beeblebrox
And how did Cambodia go from a stable monarchy to Pol Pot? If I remember correctly, it had something to do with our helping out a regime that objected to our occupying part of Cambodia.

I always have to smile
when I see the left complaining about what weapons were sold to whom decades ago, (as if the leaders at that time knew exactly how alliances would change 30 years hence). Amazing.

Have you people ever heard of the law of unintended consequences, you guys practically invented the concept here in the U.S with regard to the "war on poverty". Millions of people live in poverty as a result of liberal welfare programs at home and bone-head environmental policies overseas.

The massacre of millions by Pol Pot, Ceausescu, Stalin, Mao, et. al. are all the result of leftist ideological belief systems in Europe and here in the States. You people hand ring over the current casualties in the ME as if your past positions have not resulted in an order of magnitude more deaths.

But here is a clue for leftists everywhere, Bush cannot predict the future like some modern day Ezekiel. Just like the Dems, in the early 1970s, could not know that their bug-out of Vietnam would result in the deaths of millions and give later dictators and terrorists confidence that we would do the same in future wars, Bush cannot know what the impact of either bugging out of (or staying in) Iraq will mean in 30 years.

Nevertheless, if any of you armchair military quarterbacks know what's going to happen in 30 years and where all our weapons will be, please let the rest of us in on your insights.

Military Loving Dog
"So much so, apparently, that Reagan thought it prudent to sell them major weapons systems."

Israel sold them arms too.


'" Even during the hostage crisis in Tehran, Israel—later the United States’ partner through much of the Iran initiative—began to strike weapons deals of its own with Iran. Tel Aviv, like Washington, had a long history of selling arms to the Shah, which Tehran’s revolutionary government was willing to exploit secretly, despite its public animosity toward the state of Israel. Reportedly, the United States knew about Israeli transactions during the early 1980s but turned a blind eye. "

Bush did too.

The la Times had a story a while back that said we sold jet parts to Iran.

Prophetic perspective
What interests me is that the prophet Ezekiel predicts (in Ezekiel 38) what is going to happen with Iran. He predicts that there will come a day not long after the re-formation of the state of Israel (which happened in 1948) when Israel will be left without any allies (currently only the U.S., Britain, and Australia really fit into this category). They will stand alone.

Ezekiel predicts that Iran and a few other allies including Libya, will be chomping at the bit to take out Israel once it becomes apparent that Israel has lost all its previous allies. But evidently, Iran is not sure enough in its own military capability and somehow ropes in Russia to join in the invasion of Israel. Russia protests but is somehow dragged into a military partnership with Iran and does, in fact, invade Israel with the intent to capture it (rather than destroy it).

What is predicted next is fascinating for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that this invading army will be destroyed in a fiery conflagration once inside Israel's borders. Their destruction evidently has nothing to do with any actions on the part of Israel or its previous allies.

As a result of this near destruction, shortly thereafter, Israel cuts a protection treaty with a political leader in Europe in order to avoid another attack such as the one attempted by Russia and Iran.

Bottom line, Iran may be trying to get nukes like Saddam was but they do not intend to use them against Israel. Against us maybe, but they want Israel intact (just sans Jews).

andrews
The assassinations of JFK and Garfield were not accompanied by mass public support.

On the other hand, the assassination of Rabin received much public support in Israel and the assassin was rewarded with the sight of the government being changed to what he wanted it to be.

I notice that you failed to address the continuing political executions of Israeli leaders for corruption and even rape.

Achieving changes of leadership through assassination and public political scandal is the Israeli way.

mlg alias crack baby
how about living in the present. in your pathetic world nothing ever changes. But one of your lib heroes declared the nutty ayatollah was a great reformer. Carter undermined the shah and was repaid by the ayatollah who sent his his minions to invade our sovereign territory, which is how all embassies are considered, and took the embassy personel hostage which is also supposidly in violation of koran dictates. Duplicitous behavior is part and parcel of muslim thinking. You fail to notice that muslims don't trust each other and in spite of the trillions they have earned in oil revenues continue to live 1000 years in the past keeping their own populations mired in poverty while the various oil sheiks and the crazy mullahs control all the wealth and live luxurious lifestyles. But somehow we are supposed to trust them not to export terrorism

svpallava: From the Jerusalem Post
I don't know how Pakistan (!) got into this. If svpallava is trying to say that two wrongs make a right, then svpallava is wrong anyway.


'Israel among worst human traffickers'
By RUTH EGLASH
Jerusalem Post
Apr 25, 2006
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1145961226614&pa gename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

NGOs warn against plan to increase Russian visas
By RUTH EGLASH
Jerusalem Post
Oct 23, 2007
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380635370&pa gename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Patrick
Israeli's rise to power by assassination? Do you say the same of LBJ? And Grover Cleveland?

Just because there was a political assassination doe snot in any way mean a nation is not a liberal democracy.

Of course, slandering Israel seems to be the passtime du jour among the leftists (and sadly, even among mainstream leftists), even more than it is amongst the rightist isolationist fringe.

wildwest
They are supporting groups they agree with just as we do. We supported Iraq against Iran in that war. We supported the mujahadin(sp?) in Afghanistan in the 80's. Does that make us supporters of terrorism?

What evidence do you have that they want to dominate the world. We have been more active around the world supporting democracy and christianity than they have supporting Islam and sharia. Give me some examples of where Iran (not all Muslims, Iran is not the same as all other Muslims) has promoted extremist Islam and sharia outside the Middle East.

Patrick confuses Israel with Pakistan
Most of Patrick's comments in the 13:36 post are true of Pakistan (where there have been NO fair-and-upheld elections since Oct. 16, 1951), none true of Israel.

The only parts NOT true of Pakistan:
(1) being the biggest trader in sex-slavery. The two largest destination-markets for sex-slavery trafficking are Mainland China and (for considerable time, probably predating WW2) India. The biggest RUNNERS of this trade are in Saudi Arabia and Sudan.
(2) not having constitution. Actually, Pakistan has had a cabinet-full of constitutions from 1947 to 1973 (amended, abrogated or promulgated by its dictators Ayub, Yahya and Z.A. Bhutto; I don't know of constitutions promulgated by Zia, but he did abrogate 1973 constitution).

Pakistan is also known to be the only nation where a leader retained power through judicial murder (execution of Z.A. Bhutto in 1979)

DRAFT college Republicans!
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/


Don't these wusses want to take part in the "defining struggle of their generation" and help save the world from the islamic fascists?

One thing the article doesn't address
...is the possibility of a dirty bomb

Who wants to work in a downtown area where somebody has unleashed a cloud of plutonium, one molecule of which can cause lung cancer?

dyerje
Perhaps you are right about the weapons development pre 'axis of evil" speech. It wasn't even mentioned during that speech. That suggest Bush was also unaware of what you say. Give me the source of this information.

None of that negates the fact that Iran was moderating its position visa via the U.S. in the late 90's and even provided some assistance in the war in Afghanistan. Our belligerance has clearly been counter productive and has pushed them toward a more advesarial position.

Belligerance usually begets belligerance. My questions still is, how does our current strategy stop that?

iran
muslims respond to the man on the stronger horse. They recognize appeasement as advocated by the left as a sign of weakness. It has been widely discussed these islamists believe it is their destiny to rule the under the law of sharia. They already believe they are winning their war against the west. as a major export iran ship monies and arms to various terrorist groups in the region. Exactly how are they not being provacative in the region.

JPH
I don't know where you get the idea that Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon before the "axis of evil" speech, but that is incorrect. Iran has been seriously pursuing a nuclear weapon since the immediate aftermath of Desert Storm. Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon prior to that was on the back burner during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, especially because during that period, the former Soviet Union was less amenable to squirting out-of-work nuclear weapons designers at all comers.

But Iran's military development program since the early 1990s, assisted by both Russia and China, has been focused on acquiring nuclear weapons, and on building a medium-long range theater missile force, and a navy capable of controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

wildwest
If some other country told us that if we don't get rid of our nuclear program they will bomb us, what would you advocate we do? Immediately disarm? I doubt it. Why do you think it would work with them?

Your argument about the USSR only reinforces my position. Iran may very well deduce that if they can build a nuclear bomb that can deter our bombing them just as both sides did during the cold war.

They were not pursuing a nuclear weapon before the "axis of evil" speech as far as we know. This seems to suggest that our confrontational strategy is failing.

Citizen Carrier
Israel is a modern liberal democracy?

In Israel, leaders rise to power through the assassination of their predecessors or through corruption trials. Israel didn't just commemorate the 12th anniversary of the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin for fun, you know.

Israel has no constitution and continues to function under military orders in council that date back to the 1940s. The entire governmental superstructure can be swept away at a moment's notice by the whim of any general with sufficient power to become a strongman. In Israel, the courts are intimidated and the rule of law is a joke.

Israel is also the world's #1 trafficker in sexual slavery.

Israel a "liberal democracy"?

I think not. And its possession of nukes makes it a continuing threat to all other nations, including the nations of Europe which Israel threatened several years back.

If Iran gets nukes, it will be Israel's problem. Not ours.


Citizen Carrier
You make an eloquent case on the "chicken-anti-war" issue, but you're waging an uphill battle with your interlocutors.

I've been away from TH for a while, and have been struck, the last two days, with how much it seems to have been overtaken by ad hominem blather from the anti-war left and right. Many of those commenters seem to be more comfortable with dismissing others through ad hominem disdain than with discussing the actual issues.

VDH has never been clear on where his thoughts on Iran are leading -- whether he wants to simply attack the nuclear-related sites, or wants to invade. I would have to know more about that before criticizing him further. I don't think, myself, that merely attacking Iran's weapons-related sites would be useful; I think it would make things worse. But I also don't think invasion is indicated right now. Intimidating Iran to keep its hands out of Iraq, with credible threats against Iran's entire military arsenal, seems to me like the best course of action for the moment.

I've seen few here who can make the distinction among different courses of action. Maybe it's my military training (:-)); twenty years on active duty as a Naval officer. But the ad hominem BS is just that: BS. It's a distracter. I wouldn't waste a whole lot of time with it.

jph
iran declared war on the west during the carter years. They were essentially ignored as the west never considered them capable of being a real threat. During the cold war russia and the us had the theory of mutual assured distruction. Informinmg iran of the consequences that will come their way should they use nuclear weapons is only prudent. Bush has proven that invading any muslim country is toitally futile. The muslims have won the pr war and have gotten those living in the region to believe the attack on iraq was an attack on all muslims. But if these muslims launch an attack on the west, let them suffer the consequences. Letting these islamists know that there will be a heavy price to pay for another 9/11 is only common snese but sending the army asd we did in iraq is counter productive. But if we stay out of their region of the world they must understand they don't export terrorism to the west

Technology is not finite...
We have to come to a realization that technology is not finite. The ability to go faster than a horse was at one time a rare luxury, machine guns didn't exist, communication through telegraph was the most advanced, etc. As communication, science, and technology advances so will weaponry. By trying to police the world for "everyone else" we are just ensuring where those nukes would be pointed. And by using threats and liberally attacking countries do nothing but speed up this advancement, aggression creates new arms races.

When you call a country that tried to help you fight Al Qaeda part of the Axis of Evil, invade a second border state, also in the Axis of Evil, and beat the war drums with them, what do you expect them to do? Look at North Korea and Iraq as case studies, what direction does the invisible hand take you? Did they not expect to get a more radical leader in Iran by threatening the reformer who was trying to make compromises with us and normalize relations? If you think that you can just order another country around and demonize it despite its past efforts to ease tensions is absurd. It's not just bad diplomacy, it's anti-diplomacy and the results are predictable as they have been throughout history. If you people want an empire fight for it with your own money and children. If you don't want diplomacy make that case to the American People without outright lying.

Citizen Carrier
We are not paying for this war our children will pay. The 600 B cost to this point all off budget and funded by borrowing for which children will have to pay.

In what way have most Americans had to change their lifestyles as a result of this war. Afterall the president told us to "go shopping."

wildwest
If we are trying to disuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons it does not help to try to "bully" them. In the late 1990's and in the immediate aftermath of 9-11, Iran was moderating its positions and even expressed its sympathy for the U.S over the twin towers attack. In the Middle East, the Iranian people were more supportive of the U.S. over 9-11 than most.

When the president went on TV and identified Iran as part of the axis of evil, we pushed them toward a more advesarial position and probably toward developing nuclear weapons. After all, it was clearly implied by that speech that Iran might be next after we finished with Iraq. It should, therefore, be no suprise to us that they then decided to pursue development of nuclear weapons. Neither was it helpful when in the midst of trying to get Iran to give up any such aspirations we approved India's nuclear program.

Furthermore, Ahmadinejad is unpopular in Iran except perhaps on the issue of nuclear weapons. Our threats merely increase his popularity.

We should back off the superheated rhetoric and give negotiations a chance.

Banks writes
Why, then, all these steamed-up hypotheticals about Iranian nukes?
==================

Simple. They sell oil in euros and yen. They abandoned the dollar and weakened it.

There is another thing to consider. The U.S. has to borrow the money to fight the current war and any future war against Iran from China, Russia, OPEC, India, etc. They have "deals" with Iran. We risk not only not getting loans to fight the war, but loans that pay for all our other spending above tax revenues.

We have been warned 3 years in a row by the GAO that we are facing a gradual if not "sudden loss of our standard of living" due to our "unsustainable" fiscal policy.

We are approaching the point where we won't be able to fund any war, justified or not.

"We the people," voters, have been electing two parties that neither one of which, are good for America in the long run. They are both making promises they can't pay for. They are both placing the debt on our children and grandchildren that is so high, it will leave them in a 2nd class economic nation with an even faster decaying infrastructure than we already have.

For Patrick andCarrier
Patrick, your 6:04 am post shows your hatred of Israel--especially with mohajir AQ Khan selling nuclear know-how to about half the Muddle East, including Iran. Plus, the Arab/Muslim world was never stable to start with, so how would Israel having nukes "destabilise" it?

For Carrier:
you were almost on the nail. It is quite popular (but invalid) to equate Israel's treatment of "Palestinians" with South Africa's apartheid treatment of native Africans. Real equivalents are:
(1) Poland's treatment of Silesian Germans (deportation to then-East Germany) immediately post WW2
(2) Bangladesh's treatment of Biharis post-1971

In both the above examples, there was heavy support of the afflicted population for a repressive, war-criminal regime (Silesians obviously Nazis, Biharis of Pak-mil government); even more so of "Palestinians" who had supported the Nazis in WW2 (their leader Haj-amin Husseini had signed a covenant with Hitler, and also recruited Kosovar and Bosnian Muslims for SS)--and who have never (unlike Silesians and Biharis) even accepted it as consequence of their (leader's) choice, let alone shown any remorse!

You rightly stated that one cannot morally equate Israel (a democratic republic--where an Arab was actually able to RUN for Prime Minister; and several have been in cabinet) with Iran (a dictatorship so repressive that in the 1980's and early 1990's, over 10,000 crossed hostile Pakistan to enter India--a much poorer nation than Iran--and apply for asylum; it would not surprise me at all if a similar number of Iranians simply "merged in" to India without applying for asylum, as Iranians can oft pass for North Indians).

Chickendoves
"And I do think that there is something wrong with being so gung-ho about war, if you are not going to have to contribute."

Last time I checked, we are all taxpayers.

Which raises a question, proudZionist. Why are you or Robert and the others still paying taxes? Why are you continuing to fund this war?

Tell you what. If you don't already do it, modify your witholding so that you end up OWING Uncle Sam money every April 15th.

Then on April 15th, mail out a letter to the IRS, your Congressmen and Senators, informing them that you will no longer fund the Iraq War.

Or you could go even better and tell your employer to stop federal witholding on your pay altogether. That would be awesome.

For if you REALLY believe that Bush lied and we are responsible for all those Iraqis dead at the hands of the terrorists, that we torture, that we did all of this for oil, or to enrich Republicans or Halliburton, and that Bush is actually amused by American casualty reports and goes to Johns Hopkins in order to LAUGH at wounded soldiers...then STOP paying your taxes.

Thoreau did it. What? You guys don't measure up?

If you can ask why chickenhawks don't contribute directly to the war, can I not ask what sacrifices YOU make in the service of your beliefs? Anything besides whining or visiting political forums?

ex-infantry I don't
believe another hit on the OUR COUNRY will change the neolibs mind or their way of thinking about OUR ENEMIES. As a matter of fact that is precisely what the neolib-numbnuts want especially while GWB is POTUS because, this would help keep them in power and probably place HRC in the top job so she could air kiss all of OUR ENEMIES and have tea. Then everyone can live happily ever after...right! BTW, thank you for your service from a combat grunt. Semper Fi.

iran an enemy
better to admit they are olur ememy than be lulled into doing nothing as those on the left would have us believe. The iranian's thank that because they have oil they are true world players. But all they get is dollars for their oil. No one actually believes they contribute anything of value to either the discussion or to the benefit of the world. Exporting terrorism is the name of their blood cult doesn't grow their economy

proudZionist
"They study geo politics for a living. They knew that Iraq was not a direct threat to the U.S."

Anybody who was studying geopolitics in 2003 would note that virtually every other country in the world, including Russia if I remember correctly, believed that Iraq was illegally pursuing its WMD programs.

In fact, the reason we bombed them in 1998 with Operation Desert Fox was that they were still pursuing WMDs that they were expressly forbidden to do in 1991. Fox, according to SecDef Cohen, did not end Iraq's programs. It delayed them.

It wasn't that Iraq was a direct threat, for even Bush said that it wasn't YET, it was that Saddam refused transparency and continued to act belligerently towards coaltion forces in violation of the cease fire.

I hate to say it
but it's going to take another major attack on US soil to get the left to fully understand and realize what we're up against.

Do they really think that if we pick up our marbles and go home, the terrorists will quit? No, it will only embolden them, as it will show them that we don't have the stomach or resolve to fight.

Leaving Iraq will make us less safe. I can't understand why the libs don't understand that.

My sister, who is so far to the left that she make Pelosi look like a Reaganite, honestly believes that the only reason other countries have a military is to counter the US military, and if we unilateraly disband our military, the rest of the world will, also, and we can live in a peaceful utopia and will never have war again.

This is the simplistic thinking of the left. They live in a fantasy world, but have been provided that viewpoint by me and others like me who have been burned in the fire and provided them the safety they currently take for granted.

Israel v Iran
Israel needs another Yitzhak Rabin. Perhaps Netanyahu is the man. He will not wait for the world to come to their rescue and when Israel launches their attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, the Hamas and Hezbollah at the same time...they will immediately attack Israel from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza. The UN will be caught in the middle and the Americans will have no choice, but to join the fight.

Israel will not stop until they push the rest of the Palestinians back into Jordan where they belong. The Hamas and Hezbollah into Syria and take over the entire ancient lands which belongs to Israel anyway, according to the Torah and the Bible.

What happens to Iran will be their decision or the United States' decision during this particular phase of the war. The Straits of Hormuz (oil supplies) will be blocked by Iran and force the United States to...unblock it.

When Syria gets into the action they will run out of beans, bullets, weapons and equipment without the help of Iran.

This will bring Lebanon into the frey thereby causing the NATO Forces to choose sides with the United States, Israel and Lebanon.

NATO Forces (Europe), England,Japan, Australia and South Korea will have to contend with North Korea and the rest of the bad guys in Iraq and Afghanistan. At this point Pakistan will be drawn into the war. It's getting very dangerous in the ME!

This leaves Saudia Arabia and Egypt. Perhaps they will ask the United Nations to please stop the madness or choose sides with the muslims and Arabs. China and Russia will stay on the sidelines and sell war supplie?. ALL of the above is why Iran should NOT have a nuclear bomb.


A Lot of Nutcases
To all of you pro-nuclear Iran proponents: your passivity in the face of evil is astounding. I guess it's a function of denial and/or cluelessness. Banks, Patrick, etc. are frightening. I wonder what the source of their vile and vicious anger is?

Who's afraid?
Everyone with half a brain ought to be. Because just as Iran is/has been waging proxy wars for decades now...it isn't them that would use it but one of their proxy puppets.

That too was the concern about wmd's and ONE of the reasons for going into Iraq to curtail or minimize that possibility.

The problem is "especially in the USA" is that so many have been living in the lap of luxury protected from the front lines of dissent for so long they have lost sight of the possiblity that wihout any attempt to deter it, there is only a matter of time before what many world wide have come to live with daily shows up in our own back yard.

With suitcase size nukes and the concept of remotely detonated or personally (suicide) detonated bombs it would only take a couple in one or two select cities to bring this country to its economic knees.

Those who lobby the longes and the loudest against any attemtp to intervein in this would also be the first to whine and complain because it happened.

They create a vaccuous sense of self-esteem by being nothing bout contrarians......it after all IS a lifestyle for passive aggressive anarchists.

Citizen Carrier
I don't think people should not be able to voice there opinion unless they serve. But people like Kristol, Hanson, and Podoretz, Guliani etc., are not just everyday Joes. They study geo politics for a living. They knew that Iraq was not a direct threat to the U.S., and they are deliberately exaggerating the threat that Iran poses, in order to sway public opinion. I have a problem with that. And I do think that there is something wrong with being so gung-ho about war, if you are not going to have to contribute. I would also like to know how turning the entire middle east into a war zone is to Israel's advantage. It is not. Plus the economic inpact on us. Come on, oil is about to pass 90 dollars a barrel! This war will cripple the U.S. economy. I call my senators, and rep., once a day, to advise against attacking Iran. I implore others to do the same. And I would encourage everyne to research Ron Pauls voting record. It is 100% perfect in terms of being conservative. Unless you consider economy crushing wars conservative.

Republicans Should Give Iran a Bomb
The war in Iraq, and its associated Iraq Freedom Fund has nothing to do with "freedom" - its only purpose is to make Republicans rich.

If we cared about freedom, Schwarzkopf would have taken Iran in 1991, and captured Saddam, so we would not be there today.

Why bring the troops home?
Give Iran a bomb, so we will have an excuse for another war, as soon as this wr is finally declared to be "over."

Okay, going to lunch
Just want to say this. Before he retired, my uncle was a pretty important guy in the J-3 shop (operations) of the 82nd Airborne. In that position he was in on planning a lot of interesting things.

One of the things he had to do a case study on was the feasability of attacking Iran.

His conclusion: bad idea. The country's too big. The terrain favors the defender and the mountainous country is lousy for tanks. And it wouldn't be a 15 day walkthrough like overthrowing Saddam's forces. While many Iranians would be HAPPY to see us, just as many would NOT be happy to see us.

I agree with my uncle. At least to the extent that a traditional "boots on the ground" operation is inadvisable.

Air strikes, if it comes to that, sure. We can keep them from going nuclear that way if we have to. But mind you, I'm not ROOTING for that. I'm not rubbing my hands in anticipation of that. This is just a sober acknowledgement that good men must sometimes do what is necessary.

Robert
MAD works so long as the people who control the button on the other side CARE whether or not they go to Paradise now or later.

That's why it worked with the Soviets. Rotten government, but not exactly zealots.

But why would anybody want MAD when they can instead have it very heavily slanted in their own favor by NOT letting the theocratic totalitarian police state get the bomb?

MAD is what you have to accept AFTER the bad guys get the bomb. It is not a state of affairs you actually ASPIRE to.

In the case of the Soviets, since that is what you are basing your MAD argument on, you know what worked better than MAD?

Winning. Winning actually worked better than MAD. Because winning made the Soviet Union go away.

Really?
I've been in the Reserves, regular Army and National Guard now for 15 years. I was in Baghdad for a year in 2005 running convoys down Route Irish and even into Sadr City. I'm going back over there in about three months.

As a combat veteran, I don't require everyone who supports WHAT I do to DO what I do.

And guys like Bill Kirstol? He's friggin' 55 years old. He's too old to join. So are you still a coward when you are too old to join?

How would liberals like it if every time there was a column about global warming we criticized anybody who believed in it but DOESN'T immediately adopt an Amish lifestyle with a zero carbon footprint?

It makes about as much sense.

1LT Carrier
Executive Officer, A Battery 1-134 Field Artillery

Citizen Carrier
"proudZionist
Since when is a prior service military record a prerequisite for expressing an opinion on world events or American foreign policy?"

=================

CC, you're missing the point. The argument is more nuanced than that.

If you are pro war AND capable of service AND you frame the war as existential (if we don't keep fighting the muslims will come here and forcibly convert us to sharia law) AND you still don't enlist, you must be a personal coward.

You guys are like children who fantasize about playing soldier. You only think war is so cool and romantic because you've never seen the real thing.

proudZionist
Since when is a prior service military record a prerequisite for expressing an opinion on world events or American foreign policy?

There are millions of Americans who are incapable of serving in the military for various reasons. A lot of medical reasons. Even something as simple as having flat feet, a slight heart murmur or diabetes.

How does your philosophy deal with people like that? People who can't serve?

How about old people beyond enlistment age? If they went through life without serving and now want to root for the home team but are too old to join themselves, what do you say to them?

And the size of the military is fixed by Congress. It can only have so many people in it at one time. If it was full, would you then tell everybody who couldn't then join that they were hypocrites if they wanted the military to go out and crush a threat?

Kristol and Hansen and the others are taxpayers and voters. And they probably registered with Selective Service when they were 18 too. That is enough.

Dolly Llama
Your last post cracked me up. It is so true also.

As for this Iran business, we better not go to war with this nation. All hell will break lose.

Patrick
"Okay, then on the same basis you can't complain that Iran wants them (even if they actually do)."

Patrick, the central flaw in your argument is an assumption of moral equivalence between Israel and Iran. It is almost (but not quite) like saying that Nazi Germany is justified in building up it's military so long as Poland continues to do so itself.

Israel is a modern liberal democracy. When and if they get sick of their current government, they elect a new one. Even Arabs get to vote in those elections.

Iran is a theocratic totalitarian police state. Sure, you get to vote, but only on candidates approved by the mullahs out of Qum. When Iranians get sick of the mullahs, they can't vote them out. They'll have to SHOOT them out, if they have the guts.

And to stave off unrest, the mullahs will wag the dog. They'll do all the classic stuff George Orwell knew a police state will do in order to protect their power structure.

So, an Israel with nukes is about as scary as France or Canada with nukes. Not scary at all because Israel will never use their nukes in a first strike.

Iran with nukes? Now why would I conceivably be concerned with a theocratic totalitarian police state that has supported international terrorism for over 30 years getting nuclear weapons?

Maybe I'm must being irrational, but Iran with nukes is kind of like seeing the convicted felon pedophile and rapist down the street getting out of his car with an assault rifle, handcuffs and duct tape in his arms as he tries to sneak from his car to his house without being seen.

That makes me nervous.

Who wants war?
The military industrial complex wants war, war and more war.

And because they want it, the people who work in their propaganda machine want war. And soon the people who unquestioningly take the war propagandist's demagogy seriously will want war.

I only hope there aren't enough of them to make it a reality this time.

I get on my knees and pray... we don't get fooled again!

Phylo out.

Moonbat Exterminator
The facts are Ahmadinejad is a bad person, and very hopefully and likely will be kicked out in the next elections, but isn't mad. His party in the last elections took a beating. The anti-holocaust event would make one believe he was mad but it had a calculated reaction. It was for Iran to gain sympathetic support from angry Arabs around the ME. Arabs feel Israel has a direct hand in the Iraq war. The really sad truth is Iran helped us after 9/11 and then once again later offered to stop support of Hezbollah and others anti-Israeli organizations if the US stopped sanctions, but Cheyne nixed the deal.

Victor Hanson is very brave.
Just like Bill Kristol, Norman Podoretz, David Horowitz, Daniel Pipes, Micheal Medved, Rudy Giuliani, and all the other brave war hawks that are so anxious to " take Iran Out". None of them served a day in there lives. But they are all very ready to make that sacrifice of other peoples lives and limb.

want to get us off oil
go nuclear

yes i am worried about iran getting the bomb but right now it may seem that talking is working. Syria may have also had the bomb which would explain why Isreal attacked some Syrian instillations.

a. velasquez
"Patrick, we certainly do have reason to stop Iran from getting the bomb. They've been in an on and off again offensive war against us and Israel since 1979. "

Our dealings with Iran go back much longer, to 1953 at least, when we saw it was in our interests to kick out the Iranian leader. So to start Iran/US history in'79 is misleading. They haven't always gotten the best deal from the US, as in the Iraq/Iran war, when we supplied Saddam, who started the war, with chemical weapons and satellite intelligence which helped kill thousands of Iranians. And even today, the US supports a terrorist organization, the MEK, that goes into Iran and terrorizes and kills Iranians.

What's wrong with this scenario?
The most destructive weapon known to man in the hands of a psychotic whose view of his role in history is apocolyptic? Think of David Koresh or Jim Jones as a head of state. Ahmagiantdickhead thinks of Jonestown or Waco on a global scale. If he lacks the technology to deliver a warhead on top of a missle, he'd have absolutely no compunction about giving a suitcase bomb to a terror cell.

Have you forgotten self-interest?
Patrick, we certainly do have reason to stop Iran from getting the bomb. They've been in an on and off again offensive war against us and Israel since 1979.

I assume you are in the US, as I am. That makes your moral equivocation about Iran not only blind, but deadly. Since Islamic terror prefers attacking civilians to military targets, your family is as much on the front lines as mine is.

This isn't some stupid university debate class - this is the lives of your family, neighbors, and country.

foxfire
Okay, then on the same basis you can't complain that Iran wants them (even if they actually do).

And I don't see Iran declaring that it has nukes or wants them, and your logic about Israel not having them as offensive weapons because Israel doesn't declare them is equally applicable to Iran.

Patrick
You can’t be serious about Israel disarming.

Israel has had nuclear weapons for many years and has never declared that they have had them. If they wanted to use them as an offensive weapon, they would have declared them.

They have survived because there enemies believe that they have the ability to defend themselves.

Israel would be signing there death warrant if they disarmed.


So Who's Afraid of an Iranian Bomb?
Victor
Sir
I am sure I saw in the TV the man were freed from the captives and the money given back to the charity as the money , the jury, not Mr. Bush found , was legitimate the charity and had nothing to do with the t9/11. In addition, Mr. Bush still wants the matter to go to the higher courts.
I know not what Mr. Bush heads for, but the downwards trend is seen and almost is certain as the election fever catches on for the new president. Would it not be a decent thing to do to leave the office in the grand manner rather then very crude cooked up manner?
I have not read of any president as bad as that we have I these days in the world. There is graft, war, political scenarios that public do not like. The idea not letting go is absurd in many cases. African continent for example is filled with graft and public has no say at all in the at all. It is anarchy in the sort phrase I say. Mr. Bush and Tony Blair have made the Graft Britain a small Britain.

Expense is no problem to the American president, after Iraq war, there is little finance the Americans have. However, the Russia's shaking hands with Iran has got Mr. Bush more aggressive .Read on
We are nearly there. Are we not? Iran and Russia are shaking hands and this is not very good news to the West who want to wage war against Iran anyway naming them the Axis of Evil or harboring terrorists
This is nothing new in the news. Same old cat and mouse play.
I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

Nuclear threat to the region
As always, the only regionally destabilizing nuclear power in the Middle East is the State of Israel.

The US position on Iran will never be taken seriously until there is a general and supervised ("Verify, verify, verify") denuclearization of the entire region - especially Israel.

Israel must abandon its nukes. The US is unwilling to pay such a simple price, so there can never be an acceptable situation in which Iran can genuinely renounce its own nuclear ambitions. And without Israeli nuclear disarmament it would be illogical to expect Iran to do so.

You one thing right
It is a complicated world. There is some evidence that Iraq indeed did have the beginnings of the weapons that we thought and they sought. Many scenarios could explain why they were not found. One is really simple, they just went out the same way they came in through Pakistan. I think it was Buchanan the other day talking about how we are back into the cold war, we just don't realize it yet. I am not sure we are the last superpower, Russia still has most of the resources that were available to the Soviet Union. As we use to say in the 60's we are all bozo's on this bus(for those of you too young, bozo was a clown). Meaning it is anyone’s guess what is going to happen and how these countries really feel about anything. I am not sure if Israel did the dirty deed that it would be the scenario that you think, if those countries thought they could blow Israel into non existence they would have done it by now. There is one thing for sure the world is more dangerous than ever, remember air raid practices in school, I am old enough to have lived through that scary ordeal. The answer is to be self reliant as possible and hope for the best without being a nut.

There will be far to many posts here to track, so if you want to talk about it one on one, email barrym@tds.net
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