A belated and now inevitably almost invisible effort to demonstrate fiscal probity will lead to a split between hard-core conservatives and others who may get tempted to join Democratic legislation when they can -- to "get credit" with the public for doing something. Democratic Party bills rhetorically offering cheap prescription drugs, minimum wage increases, phony energy conservation and other such "soft" liberal offerings will pick up plenty of House Republican votes.

Because even minority senators can still be powerful forces, the Senate Republicans (having presumably lost four of their strongest conservatives -- Rick Santorum, George Allen, Jim Talent and Conrad Burns) will be even more inclined than usual to "legislate" rather than return to first conservative principles.

More moderate Republicans in both the House and Senate will judge (incorrectly, I believe) that strong Republican support of traditional social values contributed to their downfall in this election. Thus the historic clarity of the Republican Party on these issues central to Republican electoral success is in danger of being weakened in the next few years.

Obviously, President Bush will be radically reduced in his capacity to politically lead congressional Republicans, while 2008 presidential aspirants will emerge to replace him. (And, as he is now obliged to negotiate with Democrats rather than Republicans in Congress, the congressional Republicans will be further alienated from the president.)

If there are two, three or four credible challengers, congressional Republicans will tend to group around each and echo their themes and messages -- thus further dividing the unity and diffusing the clarity of the Republican message coming out of Washington. If Sen. McCain (or anyone else) emerges early as the likely 2008 presidential nominee, he will become, de facto, the titular head of the Washington branch of the Republican Party. Because Republicans tend to prefer party order to chaos, there may well be an instinct to get, effectively, the presidential primary process over very quickly -- a factor that might redound to Sen. McCain's favor.

In future columns I will write on the fate of our Iraq policy in a Washington world turned upside down. It won't be pretty.