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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Thomas Sowell :: Townhall.com Columnist
Are Facts Obsolete?
by Thomas Sowell
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In an election campaign in which not only young liberals, but also some people who are neither young nor liberals, seem absolutely mesmerized by the skilled rhetoric of Barack Obama, facts have receded even further into the background than usual.

As the hypnotic mantra of "change" is repeated endlessly, few people even raise the question of whether what few specifics we hear represent any real change, much less a change for the better.

Raising taxes, increasing government spending and demonizing business? That is straight out of the New Deal of the 1930s.

The New Deal was new then but it is not new now. Moreover, increasing numbers of economists and historians have concluded that New Deal policies are what prolonged the Great Depression.

Putting new restrictions of international trade, in order to save American jobs? That was done by Herbert Hoover, when he signed the Hawley-Smoot tariff when the unemployment rate was 9 percent. The next year the unemployment rate was 16 percent and, before the Great Depression was over, unemployment hit 25 percent.

One of the most naive notions is that politicians are trying to solve the country's problems, just because they say so-- or say so loudly or inspiringly.

Politicians' top priority is to solve their own problem, which is how to get elected and then re-elected. Barack Obama is a politician through and through, even though pretending that he is not is his special strategy to get elected.

Some of his more trusting followers are belatedly discovering that, as he "refines" his position on various issues, now that he has gotten their votes in the Democratic primaries and needs the votes of others in the coming general election.

Perhaps a defining moment in showing Senator Obama's priorities was his declaring, in answer to a question from Charles Gibson, that he was for raising the capital gains tax rate. When Gibson reminded him of the well-documented fact that lower tax rates on capital gains had produced more actual revenue collected from that tax than the higher tax rates had, Obama was unmoved.

The question of how to raise more revenue may be the economic issue but the political issue is whether socking it to "the rich" in the name of "fairness" gains more votes.

Since about half the people in the United States own stocks-- either directly or because their pension funds buy stocks-- socking it to people who earn capital gains is by no means socking it just to "the rich." But, again, that is one of the many facts that don't matter politically.

What matters politically is the image of coming out on the side of "the people" against "the privileged."

If you are a nurse or mechanic who will be depending on your pension to take care of you when you retire-- as Social Security is unlikely to do-- you may not think of yourself as one of the privileged. But unless you connect the dots between capital gains tax rates and your retirement income, you may fall under the spell of the well-honed Obama rhetoric.

Obama is for higher minimum wage rates. Does anyone care what actually happens in countries with higher minimum wage rates? Of course not.

Economists may point to studies done in countries around the world, showing that higher minimum wage rates usually mean higher unemployment rates among lower skilled and less experienced workers.

That's their problem. A politician's problem is how to look like he is for "the poor" and against those who are "exploiting" them. The facts are irrelevant to maintaining that political image.

Nowhere do facts matter less than in foreign policy issues. Nothing is more popular than the notion that you can deal with dangers from other nations by talking with their leaders.

British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain became enormously popular in the 1930s by sitting down and talking with Hitler, and announcing that their agreement had produced "peace in our time"-- just one year before the most catastrophic war in history began.

Senator Obama may gain similar popularity by advocating similar policies today-- and his political popularity is what it's all about. The consequences for the country come later.

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About The Author
Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and author of The Housing Boom and Bust.
 
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Patriots
Patriots act to preserve the Union. As Dr. Sowell states, politicians act to preserve themselves.
The electorate is much the same. Denied a real education in government schools, they have no sense of history, mathmatical skills mor training in logical thinking and fall easy prey to charletons of all stripes. Politicians, occultists, mortgage lenders, global warming "scientists" and promoters cannot be accuratly analyzed by voters in this country. That how we get ego driven theorists successfully running for high office.


Dr. Sowell for Vice-President!
Such clarity in the midst of all this election haze and hyperbole is refreshing. Why can we not have such keen intellect in our leaders? I say McCain should tap Dr.Sowell for his running mate. Should that happen, all those saying, "God Bless America" would find their request granted.

corrected
Patriots act to preserve the Union. As Dr. Sowell states, politicians act to preserve themselves.
The electorate is much the same. Denied a real education in government schools, they have no sense of history, mathmatical skills nor training in logical thinking and fall easy prey to charletons of all stripes. Politicians, occultists, mortgage lenders, global warming "scientists" and promoters cannot be accuratly analyzed by voters in this country. That is how we get ego driven theorists successfully running for high office.

AMMO UP!

The above was submitted befoe a proper editing, sorry.

Facts?
They don't need no stinking facts! They consider instead the import of the moment: To elect the first Black President!

That's the fact, Jack!

DunderHead
Obamba as Prez doesn't bother me any more than Carter or Clinton. Total disasters - all three. Obama hasn't an original thought in his portmanteau - he is being "guided" by old Democracks.

So we'll see more of LBJ - in Spades!

Which Reminds Me

Avoid living in the obvious target cities like Frisco, Vegas, NY, and DC......

This is a spot on article...
no one is talking about the idea of raising minimum wage, but I can tell you that living in the state with the highest minimum wage, I have seen quite a few friends forced to close down their small businesses...they simply could not afford the nearly $8 per hour minimum wage. That wage sounded really good to the unskilled workers, but they started singing a different tune when their bosses went out of business and they lost their jobs. I am also very concerned about capital gains tax...I am a single person and I have tried very hard to set aside money for my retirement...I'd much rather be independent in my retirement than a drain on the system. I don't think Obama's plan is good and it looks like the Wall Street investors are thinking the same thing, cuz they're bailing.

Testing Dr. Sowell's patience . . .
Dr. Sowell is providing a great public service in making his sound arguments in textbooks as well as articles like this one. These arguments need to be made over and over, as he is willing to do. The examples in the article extend back several decades, so there is nothing new about the human impulse to strive for what makes one feel good vs. what actually achieves good in the world. The minimum wage is a good example. What is new in this election is the extent of the Democratic Party candidate's distortions about his background, his policies, etc., and the mendacity of the mainstream media. God help us if the mainstream media continues its censoring of the facts in its zeal to get this charmer elected . . . .

Right On...
Dr Sowell has hit it right on the head. Obama is completely lost with out a tele prompter. More bluntly he is a empty suit IMHO!! BTW the only difference between Obama and Osama is the B & the S which is a lot of BS.

not a politician
thank god mccain is not a politician as is oobama. counting his time in the serviece mcain has spent his whole adult life feediog off the government trough. not one job in the business world or , as far as i know, even delivering newspapers . but he is an honest man and i come to praise him not to bury him Keating, funny how that name heeps popping gup whenever i see the words, mccain honest and nine all expense paid for vacation provided by keating for mccain and his family come together. i assume that somewhere in the dark recesses of my mind a realtionship betwen then has been formed, but since its unconscious i cant quite bring it up. somebody out ther help me. what do the three have in comon thet i should know about. prhaps it has something to do with obama taking bribes. but ive never heard, even fron extremists that he is accused of that. on the other hand i have dim memory of mccain being chatised by a republican dominated ethics committee for strong suspicion of doing just that. but memory fades, any one out there with better memories.

Too Much Information
I think much of the chaotic nature of this election is because of dueling authorities in charge of what is factual and what is not on the internet. Every day another site pops up with bogus information. That gets copied and pasted and emailed to thousands initially and it doesn't take too long before an idle rumor has legs. While Democrats like to pin this on Republicans, the fact is that this stuff, sometimes called the "netroots movement" predates the last two elections and started right after 9/11. I don't think that's a coincidence. After that we began seeing "facts" thrown about with abandon. And now, with what is a disgusting magazine cover, The New Yorker has gone one further. I am not an Obama supporter, but come on folks, this is really stirring the pot. Of course now what will happen is that a witch hunt will be convened to find out which Bush henchman put the drawing in there. Such is the nature of Bush Derangement Syndrome that even the failure of crops or the nature of the weather is his fault. Didn't we get over this kind of thing after Salem?

Facts?
DR. Sowell, the facts have not mattered for a very long time now. Very few people actually vote based on “facts”. The real fact is most people vote based on party affiliation. Over the years the two major parties have “branded” themselves supposedly to represent a certain governing philosophy. The type of government that you describe with the high taxes, high minimum wage, and high government spending on social programs, e.g. socialism, has always been the brand of the Democrats and Communists. On the other side, those who are supposedly in the opposite camp have been historically branded as the Republicans. This exercise in “branding” relieved the people of the necessity to actually research the candidates. People and families became associated with a particular party from their parents and they simply voted for the party of their parents until some life changing event came along and changed them. That type of voting accounted for roughly 80% of the population. The remaining 20% called themselves “independents” but in reality most of them were usually associated with one of the parties as well.

The problem now is that the so called party that is against socialism and big government spending is defying their “brand”. They have been drifting in that direction for a long time, a small amount each year or a single politician shifting over every year. This has necessitated that people do some research into the “facts” even more so than in the past. Since one can no longer rely on party branding, except in the case of the Lames, one must carefully look at the prospective candidates.

cont..

pt 2
Things that are helpful are stands that a politician has taken in the past, particularly if that stand is contrary to his party’s base. Examples of this are Lieberman’s stand on the Iraq war which cost him the nomination of his party when the party primary was taken over by the nutroots. Another example is McLame’s stand on illegal migration when it enraged the party’s base.

cont..

Obama: the first "post"-modern candidate
So-called "Post"-modernism has been around for almost half a century now (my! how time flies!). "Post"-modernists don't see the chaos as a result of failed method that it is, but as a new discovery about the intrinsic unknowability of reality and the impossibility for truth. They see their skepticism as the true doctrine (without any sense of the irony).
---Without truth, there's no point of having political or ethical discourse except to exercise manipulate others in order to gain power and advantage over them. "Post"-modern discourse is empty of content, the emotionally and rhetorically manipulative version of "might-makes-right".
---Obama is the perfect "post"-modern candidate. Lacking any experience, there are few political facts that can be pinned on him. He's a political blank slate, ready to be made into whatever spin doctors want to make of him (to a large extent, he's his own spin doctor). His personal associations, of course, are damning: a racist, an embezzler, and a terrorist, but he's charismatic enough to minimize these personal extravagances the way a magician minimizes the trap door in his disappearing-bimbo trick.
---Obama doesn't flip-flop; he floats free on currents of the electoral air, being whatever the audience calls for. He's far left for the primaries, more moderate now, and somehow he makes this indeterminacy sound consistent.
---Bill Clinton was right about Obama being a fairy tale candidate. It's a fairy tale constructed of smoke, mirrors, and a diaphanous, insubstantial hologram of a person.

pt 3

The next thing is helpful is the candidates long term record and the trend in that record. This is where organizations such as the ACU come in handy, as they will establish a number of bills on varying issues and determine, based on their outlook (conservative) how the candidate should have voted. They then compare the candidate’s voting record on those bills and issue a rating for that candidate. This is OK but it overlooks several things that are important. First, not all of the bills that the rating organization uses for the candidate may be of great importance to the voter. One should check to see if there are a number of bills that the rating group uses that you do not agree with. The other problem is voting for or against a bill is not always a true indicator of the candidate. Sometimes a candidate may vote based on what his party leaders or another politician have told him to vote even though they themselves may not agree with the bill. They will accommodate these wishes for party unity or payback, particularly if it doesn’t appear that the bill is controversial.

The almost bottom tier of things to look at is the candidate’s election year rhetoric. They will say anything and take any stance to garner that illusive few percentile of the unaligned votes. You will note them changing positions as they campaigning from primary to general and even from location to location on the same day.

And finally the lowest item to be used for judging a candidate is their looks and what is called “charisma”. Neither of these qualities mean anything as far as actual policy goes. Sadly, after party affiliation, this is the leading basis for most of those so-called independent voters.

…and that my friends is why the country is in such a mess.

Can't argue with the facts!
I'm glad Mr. Sowell wrote this piece. It just baffles me as to how the masses are so blinded by Obama.
As a black man myself, I constantly get into heated debates with other blacks who's only reason for wanting to vote for this empty suit is because he's black! I wish Condi were running and would like to hear their answer then. She's a real leader that would be great for this country!
Obama reminds me of Hitler in the sense that so many are mesmerized by Obama's supposed great oratory, (Hitler was a much greater orator than Obama) and aren't really paying attention to what the man is about, and will lead this country to it's demise.



Are Facts Obsolete?
Small-minded, benumbed little homogenized (due to mass media)people "subscribe" to what they WANT to believe and the facts be damned. Re Vic in S.C. - - ACLU outlook "CONSERVATIVE" !!!! Did I read that wrong?? If not, then he better check his FACTS.

Facts and Common Sense
are apparently in short supply these days. Thomas deals in empirical facts, as any economist of note must. I deal in common sense.

And common sense tells me:

1) People are best served by doing for themselves whenever possible - not just whenever convenient. Charity and government assistance should be viewed only as last resorts, as they are poor substitutes for personal initiative and responsibility.

2) Government is by nature corrupt. As are politicians. They act in their own best interests, just like we do. And their best interests do not often intersect with most of their constituents (special interests excepted).

3) Liberty and freedom are the most powerful ideals upon which our nation was founded. Citizens of this country should guard that legacy, bequeathed by this nation's founders, with zeal and tenacity.

4) Any tax on labor which requires private citizens to report all their financial dealings to government masters, under threat of imprisonment, constitutes slavery, and is anathema to the very foundation of a free republic. Regardless of the do-gooders intentions.

Some day, Americans will wake up and realize what has been stolen from us. I just hope it happens before it's too late.

JIm
One can not know what "facts" your rambling and incoherent post is trying to convey. First one has to learn to communicate.

U. S. Department of Change
Here's a great idea for President Obama: why not raise everyone's taxes, say by just 5% (it's for a good cause afterall!) Everyone can send their money to DC, where President Obama can create a Department of Change. He can have a Change Czar who can go around the country looking for change, telling people how the system does not work, how they are screwed and how they need to send more money to Washington so the Department of Change can spend it telling them how screwed they are, but not to worry because the Department of Change (headed by a man who never ran a business and has no concept of economics) will give them jobs and prosperity by employing them at the Department of Change. The Department of Change will also make sure that it keeps its eye on businesses and make sure that they don't make any profits that they do not turn over to the Deparment of Change. The Department of Change will spend that money telling more people how screwed they are by the system and finding more ways to get more money from them and coming up with better ways to control their lives so they won't have to think or do any real work. Now that's Change you can believe in!

Whose responsible
Barack recently said that parents must take more responsibility for their children. And yet, he voted NO on parental notification for a minor going across state lines for an abortion. He has also said he will allocate $50 million for men to become better fathers. Typical for a liberal. Throw money at the problem. RFK said that welfare would destroy the black families by developing a culture of dependency. The nuclear family in black homes has been decimated in the last 40 years by trying to help them by throwing money at them instead of allowing them to reach for their true potential.

Oh, and MRCMRC,
I have to assume that you are attempting sarcasm with your inane thoughts so obviously misspelled and with sentence structure that would freeze any grammer check application. I have seen brilliant tongue in cheek here at Townhall but you need some serious work. Sarcasm, done well, is not as easy as it looks. You might try an easier venue like writing some letters in to Highlights.

No choice, Dr. Sowell
While I am normally in favor of examining the facts before making a decision, the fact is, that if the electorate does vote based on facts neither one of these guys is going to get elected.

Point of Clarification
I watched a Yobama Q&A on the cap gains tax as described by Sowell. The interviewer was Maria Baruoromo(sp) of CNBC. The content was as described.

Because he is cute
When I was a kid, a lot of Mamas friends voted for JBK *because he is cute!* and because Nixon reminded them of their husbands. I suspect there are lots of those ladies even today who cannot name one single thing that JFK accomplished (because in point of fact most of what he is given credit for was rammed through by LBJ after JFK was killed).

I pass people on every corner and standing at every door into the PATH here in Toronto, asking me for Change. I tell every one of them to vote for Obama.

People don't think- they feel
Particularly those who whose attention is trained on pop culture and mainstream media. They tend to think they are both hip and informed.

AudiR10
"
AudiR10
Location: AL

Reply # 1
Date: Jul 15, 2008 - 6:48 AM EST Because he is cute
When I was a kid, a lot of Mamas friends voted for JBK *because he is cute!* and because Nixon reminded them of their husbands. I suspect there are lots of those ladies even today who cannot name one single thing that JFK accomplished (because in point of fact most of what he is given credit for was rammed through by LBJ after JFK was killed).

I pass people on every corner and standing at every door into the PATH here in Toronto, asking me for Change. I tell every one of them to vote for Obama."

~~~

Audi, Your last sentence is a 'killer'!


Rats
(and mice)


PARALLELS
PARALLELS
As Thomas Sowell so ably points out Oboma is nothing more than old failed Socialist values re-bundled in a new progressive suit .
Sit back and read Karl Marx is his "We need Change "B/S words . He goes out of his way to not use the word "Collectivism "but his Minions are using it for him .
In Truth His message of ''HOPE" it is nothing more than Redistribution of wealth to those that didn't earn it and higher taxes to those that pay taxes . He wants to bring back one of the worse taxes ever .
When one after paying taxes on his worth Oboma wants to bring back the DEATH TAX ! IN other words others are entitled to your saving and not your own FAMILY .
He cares (for the poor and low middle class votes already owning YOUNG STUPID-EDS , Colleges , Blacks and THE MEDIA )
He is for OPEN BORDERS but against FAIR TRADE .......He wanted to pull our Troops out of Iraq and go too Pakistan and get Bin Laden ?
But now he will ""Listen " to General Patraeus and wants to send 12,000 men to Afghanistan .
One deeply feels Oboma is Part Marxist , Socialist . Lier , Anti American and 90 % pure Phony .........In a new suit .

Charisma
Obama reminds me of an old acquaintance who was also a very charming fellow - and a rude deadbeat.

Once away from his obvious charm, people ralizeded in his absense that they really didn't like him.

With BHO, I think aside from his staggering rhetorical skill, a lot of well-meaning whie people in America just want this whole Race thing to be over.