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Thursday, August 10, 2006
Thomas Sowell :: Townhall.com Columnist
"Studies Prove": Part II
by Thomas Sowell
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My late mentor, Nobel Prize-winning economist George Stigler, used to say that it could be very instructive to spend a few hours in a library checking up on studies that had been cited. When I began doing that, I found it not only instructive but disillusioning.

A footnote in a textbook on labor economics cited six studies to back up a conclusion it reached. But, after I went to the library and looked at those six studies, it turned out that they each cited some other study -- the same other study in all six cases.

Now that the six studies had shrunk to one, I got that one study -- and found that it was a study of a very different situation from the one discussed in the labor economics textbook.

Some years back, there was a great flurry in the liberal media because a study showed that (1) black pregnant women received prenatal care less often than white pregnant women and that (2) infant mortality rates were higher among blacks.

There were indignant editorials in the New York Times and the Washington Post blaming the government for not providing greater access to prenatal care in order to stop preventable deaths of infants.

After getting a copy of the original study, I discovered that in the same study -- on the very same page -- statistics showed that (1) Mexican American women received even less prenatal care than black women and that (2) infant mortality rates among Mexican Americans were no higher than among whites.

A few pages further on, statistics showed that American women of Chinese, Japanese and Filipino ancestry also received less prenatal care than white women -- and had lower infant mortality rates than whites.

Apparently prenatal care was not the answer, though it was the kind of answer that suited the mindset of the liberal media and provided an occasion for them to wax indignant.

More recently, the National Academy of Sciences came out with a study that supposedly proved beyond a doubt that human activities were responsible for "global warming." A chorus of voices in the media, in politics and in academia proclaimed that this was no longer an issue but a scientific fact, proven with hard data.

The NAS report not had only statistics, it had an impressive list of scientists, which supposedly put the icing on the cake.

The only problem was that the scientists had not written the report and in fact had not even seen it before it was published, even though they had some affiliation with the National Academy of Sciences. Continued...

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About The Author
Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and author of The Housing Boom and Bust.
 
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©Creators Syndicate
studies show...
That media twists the facts. That the press cheats the american people and bends its "mighty will" against our president.

Studies Show
When I posted before I forgot to mention some information I received from the Dartmouth Medical School, their Center for the evaluative Clinical Sciences. Very nice folks, they sent me at no charge a wallet sized plastic card with some useful questions for evaluating assertions. The questions are:

"What is the asertion?

"If true, would you care?

"Who stands to benefit from the assertion?

"How good is the evidence?
Does it come from multiple studies?
How good are they?"

The other side of the card has questions to help evaluate a single study:

"What are the key elements of the study?
Population, exposure, outcome, effect size.

"Are the data supporting the assertion relevant?
Is it the right study population?
Is it the right exposure?
Is the outcome important?
Is the effect big?

"Are the data supporting the assertion valid?
Is there a comparison group?
Is the comparison fair?
Is the outcome measured properly?
Might the effect be due to chance?

"Are there other studies with similar findings to support the assertion?"

Keep in mind that those folks are primarily concerned with medical studies where they can do things like double blind tests, so not all the above can be used for every study. However it is useful information (so useful that I include it in my decision making seminar).
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