Townhall.com, Where Your Opinion Counts
Talk Radio:   Bill Bennett   Mike Gallagher   Dennis Prager   Michael Medved   Hugh Hewitt   
BREAKING NEWS  LeftArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican   RightArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican  
Columns, funnies & more in your inbox!
  • Check the boxes and send us your email address to receveive your free newsletter
  • Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
  • Townhall.com’s weekly inside scoop on what’s happening behind the scenes in the world of politics. When news breaks, we report.
  • Signup to receive the latest daily Townhall cartoons
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
Thomas Sowell :: Townhall.com Columnist
"Studies prove...."
by Thomas Sowell
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
 
Poll
Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


Whenever I hear the phrase "studies prove" this or that, it makes me think back to the beginning of my career as an economist at the Labor Department in Washington.

Secretary of Labor Arthur Goldberg was scheduled to appear before Congress to argue in favor of some policy that the Labor Department wanted enacted into law. Down at the bottom of the chain of command, I was given four sets of census data that had not yet been published and was told to analyze these data for a report to go to the Secretary of Labor.

Two of these sets of data seemed to support the Labor Department's position but the other two went counter to it. When I wrote up a paper explaining why this was so and concluded that the statistics overall were inconclusive, there was much dismay among those in the hierarchy between me and the Secretary.

They were also puzzled as to why anyone would write up such a paper, knowing what the Department's position was on the issues. They took my paper, edited and rewrote it before passing it up the chain of command.

Secretary Goldberg then made his usual confident presentation of the rewritten study to Congress, probably unaware of the contradictory data that had been left out.

It was a valuable experience so early in my career to learn that what "studies prove" is often whatever those who did the studies wanted to prove. Labor Department studies "prove" whatever serves the interest of the Labor Department, just as Agriculture Department studies "prove" whatever serves the Department of Agriculture's interests.

It is the same story on the other side of the Atlantic, where a new book about Britain's criminal justice system exposes the fraudulent methods used to generate statistics about the "success" of various programs of alternatives to imprisonment. The book is titled "A Land Fit for Criminals" by David Fraser.

The numbers may be accurate but the definition of "success" makes them meaningless. When a criminal is put on probation and the probation is not revoked for a violation, that is "success."

Unfortunately, the British criminal justice system does not automatically revoke probation when a criminal commits a new crime.

A criminal on two years' probation can commit a crime after six months, be convicted and sentenced -- and, after serving his sentence, go back to completing the remaining 18 months of his probation, producing statistical "success" for the probation program. That is the whole point of the "study."

On either side of the Atlantic, it is a terminal case of naivete to put statistical studies under the control of the same government agencies whose policies are being studied.

Nor will it do any good to let those agencies farm out these studies to "independent" researchers in academia or think tanks because they will obviously farm them out to people whose track record virtually guarantees that they will reach the conclusions that the agency wants.

Climate expert Richard S. Lindzen of M.I.T. has indicated that the vast amount of government research money available for studies of "global warming" can discourage skeptics from being vocal about their skepticism.

This is not peculiar to studies of "global warming." Many people who complain about the corrupting influence of money never seem to apply that to government money.

If high government officials were serious about wanting to know the facts, they could set up an independent statistical agency, along the lines of the General Accounting Office, to do studies of the effects of the policies of the operating agencies.

That would mean that the fox would no longer be in charge of the hen house, whether the fox was the Labor Department, the Commerce Department, or any of the other departments and agencies.

It would also mean that various bright ideas originating in Congress or the White House would now be exposed to the risk of being shown to be costly failures or even counterproductive. Whole careers could be ruined among both elected officials and bureaucrats.

Don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen. But do keep that in mind when someone says "studies prove . . . "

Share:
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author
Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and author of The Housing Boom and Bust.
 
TOWNHALL DAILY: Sign up today and receive Thomas Sowell and Townhall.com's daily lineup delivered each morning to your inbox.
 
©Creators Syndicate
Your so right Dr. Sowell
Every time I hear that phrase makes me cringe. That and the lead line for many politicians and debaters.. "The polls show." Yeah right! The polls show what ever the constructor wants them to show. Yet it's amazing how many people are duped.

Right again
If you've ever had the misfortune of dealing with feminist "scholars" eager to "prove" a (ideological) point, then you know full well how truth is often the first casualty of most "studies" (at least as they are done by certain interest groups and by governmental departments). Believe me, folks, I come from Canada and the amount of spin-doctoring there from state elites and from the "old girl's club" in what passes for academia north of the forty-ninth parallel will, quite literally, make you ill.

Been There..Done That
More than once I have been in a position to write a paper...my first question? "Are we for it or against it?"

Self-fulfilling prophecies
The most troubling thing about "the polls show" is that people not involved in the polls will believe that it is the prevailing viewpoint and then follow along with it--never making an independent investigation/assessment of the facts.

Linkage to issue of researcher bias
My blog as president of the Salt Institute, http://www.saltinstitute.org/rss/saltsensibility/, often visits the related subject of researcher conflicts of interest. Usual public comments lament the pernicious influence of for-profit research funders, accepting as benign the equally intense interests and bias of public agencies which define issues and "prove" their validity. In order for us to know what "studies prove," we need to become more sophisticated -- and insistent -- about quality standards in science as it's used to support public policy.

Dick Hanneman
President, Salt Institute

Angels walk in where fools fear to tread
I used this old Cary Grant line (from "The Bishop's Wife") in another comment today. It seems equally appropriate here.

Undoubtedly Thomas Sowell has explicated a fact of "studies prove" within government jobs and bureaus. Unfortunately, the same sort of problem exists in science, business and industry, where "outcome based research" is common. So many statistical analyses run prove nothing, they are simply used by people to show a desired outcome. For example, where a 5% significance level, in Toxocology studies, is the acceptable norm, a researcher may draw a conclusions, even though he has to accept a 10% significance level.

The "cowboy" anywhere who stands up for truth is gambling on justice from men, but better injustice from men, with the ability to look at oneself in the mirror, than pseudo life with the knowledge of helping to perpetuate a lie. Or, to paraphrase, of what good is it to gain the world and lose one's soul?

We've been given heads with which to reason. Reasoning is of no use unless it leads to Truth.

THE OLD SAYING
"Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" takes on new meaning every day that you turn on the news or read the paper.
Heads Need To Roll LLC

Liars and Damn liars
Once again Dr. Sowell is "right on".
One of the first things learned in a basic statistics class is that "statistic prove nothing", they simply show probabilities. Having been in industrial research I've seen the same problems of manipulated data in that research. Millions of dollars are spent and they finally figure out it won't work anyway.
NIH studies come to mind immediately when reading this article. The recently published, much heralded "second hand smoke" study is so full of statistical manipulation it is absolutely meaningless. A lot of other studies also should join this one on the trash heap.
Dr. Sowell, thanks for pointing this out.

You ever notice this
Ever notice that when people cite what 'polls show' or 'studies prove' or 'experts say', we rarely learn who conducted the poll, who did the studies, or who the experts are? Never mentioning specifics allows the dishonest not to be fact checked!

"Computer Models Show..."
Note that the same kind of bias that taints the studies also taints the computer models, and even more perniciouslt. A cmpetent programmer (or true believer) can "creatively engineer" the nmodel to produce any results desired; the program will obligingly filter out embarrassing data even before it appears in the first place!

Well-done
This makes a practical corollary to Joe Carters "No True Scotsman" discussion of logical fallacies @ http://www.evangelicaloutpost.com


Collin

http://evangelicalperspective.blogspot.com
http://www.brendemuehl.net

Evidence suggests
I'm more inclined to listen when someone says, "The evidence suggests..." and proceeds to explain what the evidence is and how one has interpreted the evidence to support the conclusion one reaches. Another way to discern that someone has thought through to a sound position is to ask if any contradictory evidence exists that challenges the position and/or if there are any alternative interpretations of the evidence that could lead to a different position. If so, why does the person hold the position? If the person can inform and cover these objections and answer these questions, that tells me the person has really done the homework, thought it through, and has a reason for taking the position. In the end, I may or may not agree with the conclusion, but if I were honest, I would act upon what the person has told me and verify his answers so that my own position on the issue becomes not just blind acceptance or knee-jerk rejection.

If only we all took the time or the inclination to do that. In reality we all do degrees of such a process depending on how important the issue is to us. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

One problem though
I agree with everything you say, Dr Sowell, except the part about creating another government agency. Another watchdog agency might help here, but please let's eliminate some other government department or agency before creating it.

1 in 4 Women Have Been Raped
I have read many references to studies that "prove" that 1 in 4 women have been raped.

What was the data behind this study which led to this seemingly-absurd conclusion?

Statistics
Early in my military career I ran into the Disreali quote, "There are three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies, and statistics." I looked at what I was doing and said, "Yep, tis true." That was in 1960, and I never have seen anything to date to contradict that assessment. Dr. Sowell is dead on, this kind of stuff goes on most especially in government, doesn't matter which department, branch, or agency.

Studies prove.
My opinion Mr. Sowell Must be lieve him self.

It is the liars way to prove something
Statistics, studies, and polls show whatever one wants them to show. For example, all drug addicts started out on milk, therefore milk causes drug addiction. Idiotic, but so is most things in the land of the free these days.

The truth about liars and organizations
"Figures don't lie, but liars can figure." The first mission of any organization is its own survival. Every corporation / government bureaucracy is full of people who want to survive in an ever agressive economy of cutbacks, quick-turnarounds and immediate gratification. Unfortunately, honesty is not rewarded in such a structure - it often only gets in the way. The truth hurts for a short time and then we find a better way. Delaying the truth will only bring more hardship and cost us much more later - when those responsible for the deception are long gone. We will pay the price for our short-sightedness.

Conflicting wage studies
For years as a USDA bureaucrat, I heard that we toiling civil service workers earned far less than comparable folks on the "outside" and those in the military. The hue and cry became especially loud during congressional hearings about what our pay raises should amount to that year. The Labor Dept provided fuel for the fire.

Now, just this week, the Washington Post reports on a "study" by Commerce or OMB or somesuch that shows govt workers make far more than private sector counterparts.

Well, it depends. The pension and medical benefits we "earned" make my retirement very valuable, it seems, and better than most, and that was a factor in the latest calculation, but apparently not in the Labor Dept's.

"Studies prove..."
The phrase "studies prove" is exactly like the phrase "everybody knows". Whenever someone begins a sentence with either phrase, what is REALLY proven and REALLY known is that the person who is uttering the sentence is about to tell a bald faced lie.

The use of False Statistics
is one of my pet peeves. Almost daily we are bombarded with fictitious numbers by various groups that wish to sell a product, an idea or just pursuade opinion. For instance you hear that a huge number of Americans die every day from a dazzling array of causes. Yet if one takes the time to do the math, adding all the totals. I doubt that we would have many people left in the country.

Right again.
There is no such thing as "science" or "objective" or "reality." Those are all liberal, rabid secularist, left wing, devices invented to take us away from Jesus and our guns!

Studies prove
An independent watchdog agency has some charm, but who will watch the watchdogs?

Studies Prove
I agree with most of Dr. Sowell's article. Clearly it is dangerous to allow studies or summaries thereof to be done by those who stand to benefit from any particular conclusion. However I get nervous when I hear a suggestion to create yet another government agency. Any such new agency should be thought out very carefully and should include a requirement that people of different political beliefs participate in any study. Diversity of opinion and background should be mandatory, not diversity of skin color.

Another idea would be to require a devil's advocate viewpoiont for every major proposal. Development of such a viewpoint should be given the same resources as the viewpoint people want to push. Those who produce it should be fired if they fail to offend the powers that be. Indeed in the seminars I offer on decision making (through H.F. Lillywhite, LLC) I urge people to learn to develop their own devil's advocate statements. If they cannot pursuasively argue for the opposing side, they probably do not fully understand the issue.

Hal:
Checked out H.F.Lillywite, LLC at..
http://www.merchantcircle.com/business/H.F.Lillywhite.LLC.503-649-7647

You certainly have the credentials to know of what you speak. You make good since to me. Though I'm retired and have no need of seminar's, I would urge anyone interested to check it out. You seem to have a lot to offer. In fact, the Liberals posting here may learn something from your introduction alone. Er.. maybe I should retract that last sentence.

Studies prove that
4 out of 5 dentists have recommneded every brand of tooth paste out there. If that fifth dentist ever decides which one he wants to endorse, I'm there.

beowulfe,
"The phrase "studies prove" is exactly like the phrase "everybody knows". Whenever someone begins a sentence with either phrase, what is REALLY proven and REALLY known is that the person who is uttering the sentence is about to tell a bald faced lie."

Exactly right. And usually the utterer has no clue about who did the study or have any specifics on it.

How to Lie With Statistics
A great read. Everyone should read it.

The scary part is that the listeners also hear what they want to hear. The thought most put into what the studies say is minimal at best.

Appreciation
Goshawk:

I appreciate your kind words about my posting. Sorry to others for posting this publicly and tying up the whole board but I don't see any way to send private email to you and I do believe in expressing thanks when it is due.

Hal

socialism marches on.......
Great article and a great example why terrorism
is not our biggest threat. We are! America will
fail like all great nations because of a cancer within and not the enemy outside the gates.I does
not matter which party is in office.

totally correct
this article is right on with what happens in the world today. companies and federal agencies manipulate information so that it says what they want you to hear and what they know you want to hear so that they will be on the good side of the public.
Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
*
State:
*
Zip:
*
Phone:
      
Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
(Bi-Weekly) We highlight the best opportunities from our partners for surveys, action items and more.