An equally valuable lesson from these depressions or financial panics of the past two centuries is that they could not deter America from rebounding and growing into another round of even greater prosperity.
In the depths of each one of these American financial collapses were the seeds of the next round of opportunity -- for those who had saved a bit of cash and maintained an optimistic belief in the future.
I remember interviewing A.N. Pritzker, founder of the vast Pritzker real estate fortune, in 1981, at the depths of that severe recession. I asked how he got his start in real estate, and he mentioned that he bought his first properties in 1933. In response to my astonishment that a fortune could be started in the midst of the Depression, I've never forgotten his words: "That's when the opportunities arise."
Similarly, a look back at history shows that during the panic of 1873, Andrew Carnegie, Cyrus McCormick and John D. Rockefeller had enough liquid reserves to buy up other failing companies, and start building their own industrial empires.
Some may criticize this as opportunistic, but it was those risk-takers who paved the way for the next era of economic growth, which helped raise the standard of living for all Americans.
That historic perspective does not take away the immediate pain felt by workers in the affected industries -- whether the railroads in the 1870s, or the industrial workers and farmers who suffered most during the Depression of the 1930s, or the autoworkers, retail employees and financial services workers who are losing, and will lose, their jobs in the Credit Crisis of 2008 (and 2009).
I have no crystal ball. My best educated guess for 2009, based on history, is that the worst is not over yet. It's an old law of physics that when you get extremes in one direction, you can expect an opposite and equal reaction. And we certainly went to extremes in debt, leverage and speculation.
But my firm belief -- also based on history -- is that America, and Americans, will make it through this current pain, and will survive and prosper. That's the real lesson of history. And that's The Savage Truth.
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