In normal times, an unemployment figure hovering within
spitting distance of 10% would be bad news indeed. These are
far from normal times, of course, and the stock market has
been defying the laws of economic gravity for a while now,
shooting up sharply even though nearly a tenth of the
available workforce has no work. Indeed, the S&P 500 has
tacked on more than 50% since its March lows.
Cash for clunkers
The rally has been especially kind to seemingly
vulnerable stocks such as
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). Both have
pole-vaulted past the broader market on a year-to-date basis,
despite their dim profitability prospects and exposure to the
slings and arrows of a still outrageous financial sector.
Toxic assets haven't evaporated, after all, and the feds are
now
scrutinizingBank of America's acquisition of Merrill
Lynch for signs of criminality.
Meanwhile, high-quality businesses though they are, the
stock prices of
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) have enjoyed a similar,
market-surpassing trajectory and now sport multiples that, to
my cheapskate's eye, look fat and
unhappy: Both trade at more than 30 times current
earnings.
If the recovery isn't as robust as the market seems to
think it's going to be, stocks like these that strike
aggressive valuation profiles may take a hard hit. That's
also true of
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), whose
fortunes are tied to the economic cycle via exposure to
business spending.
Value or value trap?
Meanwhile, at the other end of the valuation spectrum
....
Hewlett-Packard and
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) may not appear as
richly valued, but following substantial price pops on the
year, are these companies values or value traps? In Hewlett's
case, after all, dim growth prospects -- and its
commodity-like business landscape -- haven't prevented its
stock from having a 30% gain.
Schlumberger, on the other hand, literally
isin a commodity business. After an increase of 45%
so far in 2009, this company, too, seems priced for something
close to perfection. And things aren't perfect!
Indeed, there's ample reason to believe that this
recession may not be done with us yet.
Dialing for dollars
Against that backdrop, one stock you may be surprised
to learn I have my eye on during these strange days
is
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), which is
up about 130% on a year-to-date basis.
Rocked hard amid the downturn, Sprint last paid a dividend
in 2007, and it has posted negative net income during each of
its past two fiscal years. At a glance, the company looks
similar to the stocks I "trash-talked" above. Yet one Fool's
trash is another's treasure -- and Sprint looks like a
diamond in the rough to yours truly.
At some level, after all, even flailing companies can make
attractive investment prospects. Sprint isn't exactly
flailing: It raked in more than $35 billion in revenue during
fiscal 2008, netting out a gross profit of nearly $19
billion, and the company has been free-cash-flow (FCF)
positive during eight of the last nine years. The sole miss
occurred way back in 2001, and the past 12 months have seen a
sharp FCF increase compared with 2008. Continued... |