It's tough to beat gold, isn't it? There's no better medal
to win in the Olympics. For many people, there's no better
component of jewelry. And when it comes to investing, quite a
few folks think that other investments just aren't as safe or
lucrative.
Well, that's just wrong. You might think of gold as
safe-ish because it's a tangible item that exists in limited
quantities, and because piles of gold bars in a vault
somewhere aren't going to be worth nothing anytime soon.
Think again, though. Stocks are tied to tangible things, too:
actual bricks-and-mortar companies.
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) stock is tied to Pfizer
buildings and Pfizer employees and lots of research and
formulations of medications and patents.
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) stock is tied to
oil-exploration equipment and data, to oil fields, pumps, and
refineries, and to more buildings and employees, among other
things. It's not likely that those kinds of assets will
suddenly become worthless, or that the demand for energy and
medications will shrivel up. Many
great companiestend to hold their value.
Gold's mixed results
Those who think gold is a great investment need to
think again, too. Sure, it
canbe one. And it
hasbeen one -- now and then. But over long periods,
it doesn't have the best track record. Check out what $1
invested in various things between 1802 and 2006 would have
grown to:
Investment
Real Return, in 204 Years
Dollar
$0.06
Gold
$1.95
T-bills
$301
Bonds
$1,083
Stocks
$755,163
Data: Jeremy Siegel,
Stocks for the Long Run.
And as you can tell from the dollar's return, those
numbers are inflation-adjusted. A mere $100 investment would
have netted you more than $75 million in stocks, while your
money wouldn't even have doubled in value if you owned
gold.
I know, we won't be investing for 204 years. And gold has
done well lately; it recently topped $1,000 per ounce. That's
more than twice where it was five years ago. But check out
these returns:
Between
Total Gain or Loss
1900 and 2000
1,372%
1900 and 1950
83%
1970 and 1980
1,607%
1980 and 1990
(38%)
1990 and 2000
(27%)
Data: National Mining
Association.
Clearly, you can do rather poorly with gold over various
long periods. The 1970-to-1980 period is legitimately
exciting, with an annualized 33% gain. But even the overall
1,372% gain isn't so hot, since it's over 100 years.
Annualized, that comes out to just 2.7%.
You can do better
So go ahead and invest some of your money in gold if
you really believe in it. Just know that with prices near
all-time highs, it might be more likely to fall in value than
to keep rising -- which is why it's good to seek out
investments that seem cheap. But consider parking much of
your money in places where it's most likely to grow well for
you, such as stocks.
You could follow the advice of Warren Buffett and us at
The Motley Fool and just opt for one or more simple index
funds, which will track the overall stock markets for you.
The
Vanguard S&P 500 (VFINX) fund, for
example, tracks 500 of America's biggest companies, including
Intel (Nasdaq; INTC),
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and
Altria (NYSE: MO).
If you want to aim even higher than that, you might add a
handful of carefully selected stocks to your mix. One way to
find some is to screen for them. Here, for example, are some
potentially undervalued companies I found when I screened for
market caps of $2 billion or more, price-to-earnings (P/E)
ratios of 20 or less, three-year revenue growth rates of 10%
or more, and four or five stars (out of five) in our
CAPS
community of investors:
Company
CAPS Stars
Market Cap
P/E
3-Year Growth
Continued... |