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Sunday, March 23, 2008
Salena Zito :: Townhall.com Columnist
2008 GOP down ballots - The year of limited opportunities
by Salena Zito
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Politics in America right now is all about the race for the presidency, with the lens focused on who will be the Democrats’ nominee.

Beyond that view of daily political drama (and forgotten presumptive Republican nominee John McCain) are the races to control Congress.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs this November. Of those, 198 are held by the Republican minority. Fifteen percent, or 28, of those Republicans have opted out of seeking another term.

This is a year of limited opportunities for Republicans. The bleeding that began with the Democrats’ sweeping wins in the 2006 midterm election seems to have no end.

The special election held recently in suburban Chicago to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert is a reminder for Republicans; that seat went from being safe for the GOP into the Democrats’ column.

House races (or “down-tickets,” as they’re known in a presidential year because of their positioning on the ballot) are not getting much traction right now for either party.

While Democrats sit in the catbird’s seat, none of them can be thrilled that the party’s presidential primary is extending on for so long.

“Just as it would help the nominee to be running a general-election campaign at this point, it would also help the Democratic congressional candidates … to unify as soon as possible,” says American University’s Brian Schaffner.

If the nomination race was over, Schaffner explains, more time would be available for donors and activists to mobilize in order to help Democrats running for all offices. “But with this race still going, a lot of that work may be in a holding pattern.”

American politics is in uncharted territory; coattails of presidential candidates used to matter -- a lot. But no one knows if the Democrats’ nomination fight is going to have a major impact on the campaigns for down-ticket offices. Right now, the biggest effect is that the prolonged race is making it hard to raise money or to scare up volunteers.

All of that aside, most Democrats running down-ticket must feel pretty good about their chances: More Americans are affiliating with the Democratic Party than in previous years, an unpopular Republican president is in the White House, and Republicans in Congress are retiring in droves.

By all rights, Democrats should fare very well in races across the country this year, regardless of how long the nomination campaign drags out. Sans any complete disaster between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Democrats’ fundraising is rocking; the Democrats’ freshman class in Congress has taken careful votes.

Bottom line: No one expects Republicans will take control of Congress in November.

Then again, no one thought nine months out from November 2006 that Democrats stood a chance to take the House that fall. Just ask former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rahm Emanuel.

The House’s freshman class of 2006 is largely a moderate-to-conservative group of Democrats who represent red-to-purple districts. John McCain will play well in those “Reagan Democrat” areas, which means ticket-splitting by thousands of voters.

In those districts, the “new guys” will need to focus on their own records -- telling their own stories, not the story of the party’s presidential candidate.

Rush Limbaugh seizures aside, John McCain probably is the strongest candidate the GOP could field. He may cause numerous Democrat congressional candidates to run campaigns separate and apart from whoever the Democrats’ nominee may be.

That is just smart politics for Democrats in competitive House districts.

Democrats should pick up House seats, regardless of who gets their nomination; the one thing that can clothesline their sweeping gains will be if McCain wins the White House -- and carries other Republicans into the House on his coattails.

According to the rolling opinion polls at RealClearPolitics, that is not an impossibility. Those numbers show Obama and Clinton holding a slim lead -- just 1.5 percent -- over the Arizona senator.

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About The Author
Salena Zito is a political analyst, reporter and columnist.
 
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It Would Be A Surprise
If Senator McCain had any coattails. The Republicans likely to do best will run apart from the McCain campaign and stress conservative credentials, and for incumbents, their record in Congress.

GOP incumbents running on their record?
McCain and GOP legislators will be portrayed as selling more of the same this fall and I suspect the public will not be buying. But hey, in this crazy electiion cycle, anything is possible.

McCain-Feingold.
.

She has it about right.
Nice analysis by Salena Zito.

I agree with her observations. It should be an outstanding year for Democrats in congress. Many incumbent GOP congressmen are electing to not run again.

That tells me they think their party's chance of becoming the majority is slim to none.

I still think the economy will be the driving issue.

Will many voters blame the high gasoline prices, angst over the state of the U.S. economy, worry over their personal finances, on the Bush administration, and its heir-apparent John McCain?

What McCain has in his favor is the amazing ability of democrats to self-destruct.

The Wright fiasco has permanently damaged Obama.

If he gets the nomination, many independent and even democratic party white voters will remember Wright's racist rants, and ask why this lunatic was Obama's spiritual advisor and mentor.

If Hillary gets the nomination, many blacks will think the Democratic party "stiffed" their man. That may depress the black vote, so essential for the democrats.

McCain does appeal to moderates and independents.

McCain has a pretty good chance this November.

But both houses of congress will be more, not less, democratic.

The problems with having a bad brand
The incompetence of the Bush Administration along with the additional incompetence of the former Speaker Hastert and former majority leader Frist has destroyed the Republican Brand. A Republican candidate cannot run on smaller government, fiscal responsibility, or good government because the idiots in the Bush Administration has destroyed the credibility of the Republicans on those issues.

The Bush Administration has destroyed the political prospects of most Republicans. when President Clinton left office, many of his former staffers successfully ran for office. Now, the incompetence and stupidity of the Bush Administration will keep any former Republican staffer from runnng for office.

And last, the demographic changes in the U.S. will ensure that the Republican Party becomes smaller. Why would anyone want to be involved with a political party that does not realize that open borders and unlimited immigration makes conservative politics an impossibility?

Frist and Hastert were a disaster: this
represents a time to rebuild in the GOP. IN the northeast we have one Democratic scandal after another: McGreevey, Spitzer and now Paterson. The GOP had better use this to their advantage plus the NYC economy will tank shortly. IN Massachusets, Duval is a disaster. The public wanted liberal Demos - now let's see if they can lvie with it. And Corzine - he is another disaster.

Good analysis but overlooked
the overwhelming anti-incument sentiments of the public right now.
By passing on re-election the GOP could turn this sentiment to their advantage in races where they won't have an incumbent to defend.

Hastert=Has been
If I were Pres: I would have as VP an un electable person: Make nice with Kennedy,McCain Feingold and spend spend spend. Veto nothing and support nothing conservative. To ensure the death of the Republican party I would place in power others who support illegal invaders; and, above all only support more unlikable old men, like Hasbeen's replacement. With all that I would do all I can to p*** off the conservative base and break the bank of the RNC. If it looked too good have the chief FNO steal some more.
Wait! Wait! Bush and the RNC has done just that.
I am sending my $300 rebate to the young Duncan Hunter campaign. Maybe just maybe we can stop this madness.

A NATIONAL Campaign!
If the Repubs would run a national campaign highlighting the extreme lib who will be the Dem's nominee they can make this a winning year-- especially if The Clinton Crime Family hijacks the nomination and the blacks stay home. In my home state of California I believe a candidate who stressed National Security, immigration and rising taxes could beat Barbara Boxer but the Repub Party will probably write off this state and just use it as a place to fundraise.

Ali
The Repubs will only gain if they start yelling real loud what you just said-- these libs are causing economic damage and misery and that there are NO moderate Democrats.

The Republicans lack any crediblity
The Republicans cannot run on immigration when the sitting Republican President and the Republican nominee are both open borders supporters. The Republicans cannot run on lower taxes when they have failed to make the necessary budget cuts in order to support tax cuts. When Republicans spend without limits, they lose crediblity. The Republicans cannot run on security when seven years after 9/11, the ports are unsecure, the airports are a disaster, and there are millions of illegalimmigratns in the U.S>

Misread Results
The results of the 2006 elections were grossly misread. The Repulicans who had been elected to govern conservatively and solve the illegal immigration problem became giddy with power and overestimated the loyalty of voters who put them there. The result was the take over by Dems.
The Republican big heads have made the same mistake and with the help of the MSM chose John McCain. His election will set conservatism back another 20 years.
I will vote for the down ticket conservatives and write in for POTUS.
The Dem who is in the white house should be an admitted one so people can see what damage their policies bring and seek to restore the ideals of limited government and free enterprise to the US.

Losses
Zito is correct that Pubs will suffer many losses. The problem , of course , is that the ignorant, the uninformed, the media brainwashed will fill Congress with more liberal Dems because they want more govt. control over their lives. They also do not understand the evil of Islamofascism. They will vote for a Party who has many scandals and yet never seems to be blamed for them as the public blames Pubs. In fact, excuses for Dem sins abound and forgiveness shines through their willing allies in the media. The public will vote for socialism, pacifism and not really realize that. The public will vote for the redistribution of everyone else's monies and property but forget that it is theirs too! They will hate Bush, not realizing that W is not on the ballot. They will vote for two incompetents like Obama and Clinton but fear a 71 yr. old man. They will sweep in more socialists and then wonder why their taxes are hiked by a trillion by a guy like Charlie Rangel. Sad but true.

Condolances!
Irregardless of which person wins the Democratic Nomination, is there a specific place to send the Demo Party our condolances and perhaps flowers for the grievious occurrance?

Robert

"you folks in the right wing have killed us..."

Us folks on the right wing remain right we have always been, where we were when your boys needed us and our votes. Your boys decides they no longer needed us and have abandoned conservativism.

Your boys and their defection from principle are what has killed us.

Thanx to you and yours, we, as a nation, will slide more leftward ever again. And it will continue as long as you and yours reject conservative principles.

So, when you sing Good Night Irene, simply close your eyes and fade away.

PS, you moron is showing.

Robert, somebody in the right wing...
didn't kill you too bad or you wouldn't always be in here polluting the conversation or trying to get a rise out of assorted conservatives. I can't figure which of these is your objective.

One check mark
What would ordinarily have been a dull, inoffensive column went off the tracks with that stupid, snarky cheapshot at El Rushbo. When are you lamebrain Republican Party operatives going to realize that if you would just do the things that the Maharushie advises you to do, you could have majority power until the end of time?

GOP=WHIG
The Republican Party under GWB seems intent on political suicide. Pandering to citizens of other countries illegally in our country while telling us we must be vigilantes if we object to illegal aliens ignoring our borders and laws. Mel Martinez was RNC Chairman to ensure an open borders candidate in '08. The cheap labor express will be kept running, regardless of the consequences, to party or country. GOP-RIP

The Stupid Party


The RNC wants an amnesty candidate.

Don't vote for one.

Another amnesty will result in Democrat majorities for decades, or until they are supplanted by the La Raza Party, why doesn't the RNC know that? How stupid do you have to be to import voters for the opposition at the same time you alienate your own voters? Nominating any of the amnesty supporters is a losing proposition, we will not support them. If the GOP intends to surrender our sovereignty and abandon the rule of law, they will find in November 2008, that they still have their big money/cheap labor donors, but they do not have voters. GOP-RIP

The GOP has become redundant
If the GOP apparachiks & Rockies are really curious re why the "limited opportunities" the answer is no further away than the nearest mirror. But they know, because it's their scheme being implemented.

All but the farthest fringe of the Left is being pandered & catered to. The Demmie party is dedicated to trying to please the Left. "Moderates," whom one would think by definition are easy to please, oddly seem (per what the pop media tells us) repelled by strong conservatism, strangely okay with even extreme leftist agendas, & overall are said to want pretty much the same stuff as leftist Democrats, just slightly less. All of US politics since Reagan seems to be oriented around appealing to these mysterious moderates. Real conservatives are basically blown off at the policy table & told to just suck it up or take all the blame for a Demmie POTUS. Anybody see a pattern here?

The GOP hacks & their buds OTOH have been trying to alienate & marginalize the real principled limited-government conservatives who include both the "social" & the libertarian "economic" conservatives. Their career is government & they want to be in a growing industry. In their view, limited government types are the party poopers who put the brown stuff in the punch bowl. Big government can do "liberal" stuff or it can do "conservative" stuff, but it can't get smaller. That's the Thing that Must Not Be, the unacceptable outcome, the enemy to be vanquished.

Trouble is, with Republicans like that, who needs them? Those who want Democratic policies (such as I suspect many of those who voted McCain in the primaries) will vote for the Demmie in the general.

The GOP now exists to provide the thin illusion of opposition, & cushy jobs for careerists & apparachiks.
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